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• Trump threatens harsher strikes if Iran disrupts supply
By Adewale Sanyaolu
Despite Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s announcement of a ₦100 reduction in its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) yesterday, Nigerians are unlikely to see a meaningful drop at the pumps anytime soon, according to the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN).
The refinery’s price adjustment follows a sharp decline in Brent crude, which fell from $119.85 per barrel early Tuesday to $88.70 by 4 p.m. yesterday. However, retailers warn that downstream costs, distribution charges, and taxes mean the reduction may not translate into significant relief for consumers.
However, ongoing volatility in global oil markets, fueled by geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions, continues to drive up supply costs, limiting potential relief for consumers. The National President of PETROAN, Mr. Billy Gillis-Harry, cautioned that while local refining could gradually ease pressure on supply, international oil dynamics and foreign exchange fluctuations mean petrol pump prices are unlikely to see a significant drop in the immediate future.
“We are operating in a global market environment. Whatever happens internationally, whether it is supply disruptions, shipping challenges, or crude price fluctuations, ultimately affects the domestic market.
“Nigerians should, therefore, not expect petrol prices to drop suddenly,” Gillis-Harry said.
But despite the global pressures, Dangote Petroleum Refinery yesterday, announced a downward review of its ex-depot prices for refined products, offering some short-term relief for marketers and bulk buyers.
The refinery reduced the gantry price of petrol to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre, while coastal supply was adjusted to N1,050 per litre. Diesel (Automotive Gas Oil) was also cut by N190, from N1,620 to N1,430 per litre.
Industry analysts say the adjustment, prompted by easing global crude prices, could lower loading costs for marketers, though the timing and extent of the price pass-through to retail outlets remain uncertain.
Market participants are now closely watching how quickly these ex-depot cuts filter through to depot prices and pump stations nationwide.
Gillis-Harry emphasised that, beyond pricing, maintaining a competitive market structure is crucial for consumer protection and supply stability. While domestic refining strengthens energy security, he warned against any monopolistic dominance that could distort pricing or disrupt supply.
“We must ensure the market remains competitive. The moment you allow a monopoly to develop in such a strategic sector, it creates risks for pricing, supply stability, and consumer protection,” he said.
He urged a diversified supply base involving multiple players, both domestic refiners and importers, to maintain price discipline and guarantee steady product availability.
According to Gillis-Harry, ongoing engagement between regulators, marketers, and other stakeholders is essential to balance market dynamics and ensure Nigerians have consistent access to petroleum products.
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While the industry adjusts to evolving global energy realities, The PETROAN President said policymakers must continue to pursue measures that encourage competition, transparency, and supply security in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market slipped into renewed uncertainty on Monday after Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised the ex-depot prices of petrol and diesel to N1,175 and N1,620 per litre respectively, triggering anxiety among fuel marketers and large-volume buyers over the direction of prices in the coming days.
Monday’s price adjustment marks the third upward review by the refinery within a week, intensifying caution across the supply chain as marketers weigh the risks of buying at higher prices in a volatile market.
Industry sources say many distributors are now adopting a wait-and-see approach amid fears that further revisions could follow.
The refinery had earlier last week raised the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, to about N1,050 per litre before implementing another increase that pushed the price to N1,175 per litre, while diesel climbed to N1,620 per litre, according to market participants familiar with the development.
Meanwhile, US President, Donald Trump, has vowed to hit Iran “much, much harder” if it blocks oil supplies in the Middle East.
Trump spoke after Tehran launched multiple missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf Arab states following the announcement that Mojtaba Khamenei would succeed his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader.
“We’re winning very decisively. We’re way ahead of schedule,” Trump told a news conference in Florida.
He added: It’s going to end soon.”
Asked whether it would end this week, he suggested it would not but said: “Soon, very soon.
“I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply. And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level,” Trump warned.
Earlier in the day, Trump told fellow Republicans at his golf club in Florida that the air strikes on Iran were a “little excursion” that “had to be done.”
“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said.
