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The time of choosing is almost here with us. It’s only ten days away to the much-awaited Presidential election on February 16. Though the Presidential and National Assembly elections hold same day, local and international attention on Nigeria will be on the big prize – the presidency- a preeminent office described by former American President, George W.Bush, as a “shrine of democracy”. It means the office is like no other. It’s a “duty to be done, not a prize to be won”, according to ex-US President, Gerald R.Ford.
About this time four years ago, there was a mood of euphoric abandon within the camp of the then opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) even though the presidential election had been shifted to March 28, 2015. The excitement was immense and perhaps genuine. Reason: The London-based weekly news magazine, The Economist, had predicted that Muhammadu Buhari, the Presidential candidate of the APC would defeat the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan. The magazine said that victory for Buhari was in spite of the fact that he “is the least awful choice which would be chosen with a heavy heart, voters have ample cause to send Jonathan packing”. Also, Euroasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer, also endorsed Buhari in 2015. Their prediction came true.
Now, there’s a reversal of fortune for APC and the incumbent President, by the same organisations that predicted his victory four years ago. Last week, The Economist Intelligence Unit Africa, the political arm of the magazine said that the Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democractic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, will win the February 16 election. It says the margin of victory is getting narrower, but maintains that Atiku and his political party will win the historic election. In the words of the magazine, “we retain our forecast for #Abubakar to win, but expect the margin of victory to be narrowing as the poll approaches”. The Euroasia Group has similar forecast.
But unlike what APC and its supporters did four years ago, PDP and its supporters know that the party may be sitting, as a friend of mine puts it,on a ‘golden opportunity’, it’s better not to rest on their oars, and even much better to hold the final cheer until the outcome is known. You see, even though The Economist has not got its forecast wrong in many elections, sometimes opinion polls are not all that determine outcome of elections, especially in third world countries like Nigeria. That’s what research has shown, although it shows that in the presidential election, the odds favour Atiku and the PDP to triumph. Nevertheless, there are critical issues in this election that voters must consider. The first truth is that the two leading presidential candidates- incumbent president Buhari, and PDP standard bearer, Atiku Abubakar (with no disrespect to other presidential candidates) – offer real choices, two visions, about real issues to the voters on election day. The voters have a chance to ask, first of all, leadership, the character of our country and, who, between Atiku and Buhari, has a realistic vision of the future for Nigeria.
As I said last week in this column, the real issue in this campaign, in the February 16 Presidential poll is whether you are better off today than you were four years ago. Whether you believe that ‘Change’ promised by the ruling party has indeed brought progress. The answers to the questions before every voter are not hard to find. If you want continuity of Change (depending on your definition of change) and you want the “Next Level”, that the President is promising now, Buhari is your man. But, remember that the change you have experienced in almost the last four years, is like a fire that burns a forest to ash and leaves the occupants like acid on the soul. Beware of such change. It has become disruptive and destructive.
When he launched Next Level, the party’s theme for the next four years, on November 18, 2018, the President admitted the extreme difficulties of the last three and a half years, and said the years were just for laying a foundation for a prosperous Nigeria, promising that, if given another four years, he will make the country better. And you ask: what happened with his promise to end insurgency in six months of his administration? The administration is now in its forty-five months in office.
What happened to the promise to create 3 million jobs? Instead, there are 21 million jobless Nigerians today, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). What happened to the promise to stabilize power supply? Today, the highest electricity Nigeria has generated so far is 5,000mw, contrary to 20,000mw it promised to deliver in four years. What about the economy? The indices are clear that our economy is now more vulnerable to both local and external shocks than it was four years ago. Do you truly believe Mr. President when he said that “the economy has been brought on the right track and we are in for inclusive growth”? Do you believe the administration that it is “making Nigeria a better place to do business by working on all parameters that define ease of doing business”? Is this government truly focused on poverty eradication when statistics show that about 87 million Nigerians are now trapped in the poverty hole? Well, the President’s men claim he has done all of that. On the other hand, if you believe APC has failed to deliver on its promises of 2015, and why Nigerians have gone through many traumas in recent years, it is because they placed their trust in a government that promised them change, but delivered cheese and misery. That is why gloom and disillusionment have set in among majority of our people. They are questioning the competence and effectiveness of the government they so trusted.
Therefore, if you feel shortchanged in the affairs of the country, Atiku is saying, take a look-in of my plan for the next four years. He offers himself as “A strong leader with the skills and vision to grow the economy, empower Nigerians and heal our nation”. His vision, he says, is such that every Nigerian shares in the progress and responsibilities of the country, where no one should be deprived of the essentials of decent life. He adds that the Atiku/Obi ticket offers Nigeria has detailed action for all key sectors of the economy, example, education, health, economy, youth empowerment, more political appointments for women, etc.
The Atiku/Obi ticket believes there is nothing beyond the practical capacities of a united and determined Nigeria. Maybe, that’s why, some regional sociocultural groups, Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Northern Elders Forum (NEF), the Middle Belt Forum, and the Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), have all endorsed Atiku. According to them, Atiku posseses the intelligence, capacity and requisite knowledge to make Nigeria “Great Again”. As expected, in the final days of these campaigns, all the presidential candidates will be making their closing arguments. Much attention will be on the President and the main challenger, Atiku Abubukar. The truth is, today, nobody needs to tell anybody, what to like or dislike about any of the candidates vying for the presidency. Circumstances and tempers of the time, demand for a new leadership and vision of the future. My take is that our country needs to be united again for the pursuit of peace and prosperity.
