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By Daniel Bwala
This assertion somewhat sounds blunt, unapologetic and arrogant coming from an All Progressives Congress (APC) stalwart. Sadly, it is the plain truth, given the moments, times and seasons we are in. The stakes are high, the country is polarised and the optics unpredictable.
There are questions agitating the minds of not only members of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of southern extraction but even moderates and millennials: questions that border on equality, equity, unity, polarization and insecurity.
If you send a questionnaire to millions of Nigerians about where the next PDP President should come from, you are likely to have the greater number of the answers in favour of the South, given that President Muhammadu Buhari, although an APC President, hails from the North; yet just like in law, we grapple with the question of law and morality. PDP is confronted with the same sad reality of opportunity over equity, success over argument.
Even the question of equity in terms of their quota in the zoning formula is debatable and we can argue until the cows come home. There are those who still hold the strong belief that, in PDP the North has not exhausted its quota, especially when you consider that strictly from the partisan point of view. There are those who would on the other hand tell you that, partisan or not, the North is the North and would equate Buhari’s administration as one and done.
However, PDP must not pretend about the realities of the times and needs to take advantage of advantage. Either it insists on power shift to the South or allows free contest in the hope that, if the northern politician wins the chances are that PDP would win the elections and take back power to re-set whatever they believe is the political equilibrium.
There are dynamics that would shape how PDP wins Aso Rock. The factors are numbers, message, personalities and movement.
The winner of any election must be someone who scores the highest, majority of the lawful votes cast. This is the key to determining elections and election petitions. Therefore, PDP has to worry about how and what best strategy to adopt to win the majority of the lawful votes cast. There is strength in numbers. This also speaks to the need for PDP to rally around who would best bring the numbers.
Again, what accounted for the failed attempt by PDP to win the 2019 elections was largely the messaging. There were mixed messages, there appeared to be contrary messaging or conflicting messaging. In one breath, they preach unity and unifying the country and in another breath they preach full-blown capitalism without recourse to the downtrodden Nigerians who must first be rescued from hunger and death.
There were times they didn’t even convey any message but continued to say it was time for PDP to take over. They also didn’t have a reply message to the hauling and scathing allegations by APC about corruption, mal-administration and instigation of insecurity.
Messaging is vital in the build-up or during electioneering. That’s why all religious faiths teach proclamation, evangelism and messaging.
Salesmen can tell you, too. Why do you think advertorials in print and electronic media cost the biggest budget?
In America, 77 per cent of the spending during elections is on advertising and messaging. In contrast, because of loss of confidence in the process, Nigerian politicians spend more in hiring thugs, or using undemocratic approaches to winning elections. PDP needs to reinvent itself with a renewed message that will promise hope or any sense of survival and progress.
In Africa, personalities win elections, not parties. APC won in the 2015 elections because of Buhari, not necessarily the party. The party helped to a large extent in mobilising support, funds, ideas and consolidation, but no doubt Buhari brought the numbers.
There is a common cliché in APC that Buhari has the vote bank.
Whatever messaging he used to acquire the numbers, he has the vote bank. He consistently brought about eight million votes in all his electoral attempts, that was what informed the APC to go for who had the numbers.
His personality was the product that APC sold to cash in to power. If PDP must win, they would need the personality or personalities that will bring in the numbers. The undecided or millennial always lean or gravitate towards the character or personality of the person they would eventually vote for.
To take back the power, PDP would need, in addition to the above, a movement. That means PDP must reinvent itself and mobilise all bases.
“A political movement is a collective attempt by a group of people to change government policy or social values. Political movements are usually in opposition to an element of the status quo and are often associated with a certain ideology.”
PDP must reinvent and develop a broad-based ideology. An ideology is an identity; right now, PDP doesn’t seem to have a well-defined ideology that one can take and run with. What helped APC win the 2015 elections wasn’t just that Nigerians were tired of PDP, it was also that APC developed a well-defined ideological message and ran with it. The message was “Change.”
Change is a major element of a progressive ideology. It meant creating equal opportunities, it meant representing the interests of the ordinary people through political change and the support of government actions.
Whether APC lived to its fullest ideals is debate for another day. But that was the message and it resonated with the masses, especially the middle class, low class, no class, market women class and, boy, it created the movement. PDP needs that, more than just paying lip service to catch phrases.
Right now, in PDP, there is no personality with the requisite pedigree and reach to bring in the numbers more than Atiku Abubakar. It is a sad truth, but he is the only realistic path for the PDP to the Aso Villa.
Sometime around 2017 or 2018, when PDP was not even considering Atiku in their discourse, when Saraki, Tambuwal and others were running the show with the solid support of Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, I said in a television interview that the only candidate in PDP that would give Buhari a run for his money was Atiku; boy, didn’t he?
Buhari, with his vote bank and with the united efforts of all the APC juggernauts, could only secure a little over two million against Atiku.
In 2023, Buhari would not be on the ballot. APC might not have the compact common front as was the case in 2019. What opportunity do you think this suggests to PDP?
But Atiku needs Nyesom Wike as a necessary party to win the 2023 election.
Atiku’s capacity and reach with Wike’s sagacity and energy, 2023 would be an interesting event. Atiku’s chances have further broadened by the defection of Rabiu Kwankwaso from PDP.
Wike has over the years created a rising profile by his political opposition activism and governance achievement. He has won many hearts and was the voice of the opposition. That is as far as it can get. When the chips are down, he cannot bring in the numbers beyond the South-South.
My apologies, but my humble opinion is South-South politicians most often than not have adopted the militant approach even in politics and it will not help in bringing in the numbers beyond the South-South.
Simply put, Wike is a regional political warlord. He has not consciously and conspicuously expanded his political engagements beyond the South-South and it is too late to achieve that now going into 2023 elections. He has fought with virtually every governor in the South East or most governors.
He has at least picked a governor in each geopolitical zone as a political prisoner to establish his political sagacity. Wike has to tone down the rhetorics and fights, and accept reality to be Atiku’s running mate. That’s their realistic path Pius Anyim having served as Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the federation (SGF) has attained a level of conversation. Unfortunately his lack of active politics since 2015 has only helped to diminish his influence and marketability.
He has not been active politically after leaving office as SGF. He also did not assume any role in public affairs that would keep his
name, fame and message in the public space or even his political party. The only news that trended his leaving office was his EFCC case and that helped to create a ceiling for him.
It is too late to build a movement, support base or even secure the follower ship of party faithful. He is even grappling with local resistance politically, hence cannot command national support. I doubt if PDP would ever consider taking such risk by giving him the ticket of the party.
The Eight Senate boosted the profile of Bukola Saraki immensely in the PDP. He was to PDP in the Senate what Wike is to PDP in the 2019-to date politics. They were both considered as champions for their party.
Saraki has built his structure and support base beyond his geopolitical zone. He is one politician who was careful and strategic in building a base across all the geopolitical zones of the country.
He used the Senate to create a structure, but he cannot bring in the numbers as much as Atiku would, heading to 2023 elections. Again, Atiku needs him as campaign director general because of the structure he’s got and can deploy as well as his political affiliations and reach.
Dele Momodu is energetic, has ideas and international connections, himself being a journalist and writing has an advantage, but uses wrong narrative and messaging. He has consistently preached that his greatest strength lies in his business acumen having run a successful business for decades and therefore can translate into good governance.
That is a counter productive narrative. Running an entertaining print media company is not in any way indicative of possessing the qualities to govern a country. If he maintains the same narrative he might be out of the race before it starts.
There are those who would tell you that what his Ovation magazine did in Africa was to promote a culture of ostentatious lifestyle. There were very successful businesspeople, sports and music moguls, who made their monies in transparent and legitimate manner, but people often times reckon with the negatives to assess character and integrity.
Therefore, success in publishing Ovation should never be part of his talking points.
Secondly, he appears not to have developed political structure anywhere in the country. He relies heavily on social media influence and presence. Unfortunately, the electoral act does not recognise social media voting and does not attribute social media influence to majority of the lawful votes cast.
Seyi Makinde, Oyo State Governor, is gradually building an image and structure in the South West. He is young and progressive. He has carefully avoided political controversy to build a marketable image.
This means hope especially to the youth in PDP that you can rise to prominence by sheer determination and God’s help.
But Makinde isn’t built for 2023, maybe in the future when the image he is building will assume a stature needed for national politics. His challenge is that most South West PDP generals have refused to accept him as the leader of the party in the zone. This would militate against his possible bid for presidency come 2023.
Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal has a rising profile for national politics. He seems to have proved capacity to collaborate and engage during his time as Speaker, House of Representatives. He successfully led a revolt against the same PDP then to prove he has capacity for movement. But pundits believe he has not done enough in his state to show capacity for national politics.
His biggest challenge is Atiku, he surely cannot upstage Atiku from the North. He has also not expanded his political base beyond the North West. He cannot bring in the number nor generate the movement needed to challenge APC.
In the final analysis, who will rally the business community and engage their support more in PDP? Who will harvest the large votes in all the geopolitical zones more for PDP? Who has the national experience of the Aso Vila and in fact laid the foundation for establishment of modern institutions in the country? Who can rally the international community in this global quest for a secured future for PDP? Who has proven to be more nationalistic and unifying than others in PDP? To all these, Atiku suits the bill.
Who has the financial capacity or capacity to generate the funds to run the elections for PDP? It’s Atiku and Wike. Any politician who ran for office more than three times and remains relevant has the greater chances of winning elections.
•Dr. Bwala is a legal practitioner
