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Chairman, Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), Dele Oye, has raised the alarm that an estimated eight million micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) shut down across Nigeria between January 2023 and June 2024, representing about 20 per cent of the country’s estimated 40 million SMEs.
He also warned that the scale of the collapse exposes a deepening crisis in the sector, describing it as an existential threat to Nigeria’s economic foundation.
He disclosed the figures in a policy brief titled “The Gap: Nigeria’s Industrial Policy 2025 vs. The Lived Reality of SMEs.”
According to Oye, research consistently shows that as many as 95 per cent of Nigerian SMEs fail within their first five years of operation, highlighting the urgent need for policies that go beyond design to effective implementation.
Quoting the National President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), Femi Egbesola, Oye described the situation as a humanitarian crisis.
“Many businesses simply cannot cope with the harsh economic environment. Owners are closing their shops, unable to meet loan obligations or manage skyrocketing operational costs. Several people have died under the pressure; others are in the hospital. It’s a humanitarian crisis,” Egbesola said.
Oye identified three major factors driving SME failures: macroeconomic instability, limited access to affordable finance and soaring energy costs.
He, however, commended the Federal Government’s newly introduced Nigeria Industrial Policy 2025 (NIP2025), describing it as an ambitious framework designed to reposition the country’s manufacturing sector.
On the policy championed by the Federal Ministry of Industry Trade and Investment, the Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owan Enoh, explained that it seeks to raise manufacturing’s contribution to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 15 per cent by 2030 and 25 per cent by 2035, while boosting exports, creating jobs and positioning Nigeria as Africa’s leading industrial hub.
Oye noted that the policy rightly recognises MSMEs as central to achieving those objectives, pointing out that the sector contributes 46.32 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and accounts for about 87.9 per cent of total employment.
He said the policy promises single-digit loans, industrial clusters, technology incubation centres, skills development programmes and fiscal incentives aimed at supporting businesses. Despite these commitments, Oye argued that there remains a wide gap between policy intentions and the realities confronting entrepreneurs.
“For millions of Nigerian entrepreneurs struggling to survive, the NIP2025 reads less like a practical roadmap and more like a distant promise,” he said.
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According to him, inflation, which climbed to 33.4 per cent in July 2024, persistent naira depreciation and the removal of fuel subsidies have sharply increased production and transportation costs, forcing many SMEs to downsize their workforce by as much as 70 per cent.
He also lamented the limited access to affordable financing, noting that only between 15 and 20 per cent of SMEs have access to formal bank credit. Where loans are available, he said, lending rates now exceed 35 per cent, making borrowing unsustainable for most small businesses.
Energy shortages remain another major burden, with businesses enduring prolonged power outages and relying heavily on generators. Oye noted that diesel costs alone consume as much as 30 per cent of revenue for many SMEs.
He argued that previous industrial policies failed largely because of weak implementation rather than the absence of good ideas.
According to him, although government interventions have increased credit availability over the years, most SMEs use borrowed funds to cover operational expenses such as rent, inventory and energy costs instead of expanding production because of the difficult business environment.
To reverse the trend, Oye called on the Federal Government to declare an SME emergency and introduce targeted measures, including genuine single-digit interest loans, energy support for productive sectors and a moratorium on multiple taxation by state and local governments.
He also recommended loan products that align with SME cash flow cycles through longer repayment periods, revenue-based financing and appropriate grace periods.
In addition, he urged the government to prioritise the development of SME industrial clusters by providing reliable electricity, water, roads and security in selected locations within one year.
Oye further called for greater transparency through the National Industrial Development Monitoring System (NIDMS), recommending quarterly publication of detailed data on SME financing, beneficiaries, sectors and employment outcomes.
While describing Senator Enoh’s advocacy for NIP2025 as commendable, Oye stressed that Nigeria’s entrepreneurs need effective implementation rather than another policy document.
He said the policy would only succeed if it delivers tangible benefits to business owners, including bakery operators struggling with rising costs, transport operators forced to cut jobs because of higher diesel prices and artisans fighting to keep their businesses afloat.
“The ambition is right, the execution must now match it.”
