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…Says naira lost 29% value in 4yrs
Chairman, Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics Ltd/Gte, Dele Oye, has raised concerns over transparency surrounding the Federal Government’s approximately $5 billion financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank, while questioning the composition of the N20.4 trillion in incremental resources and N30.64 trillion in additional expenditure reported under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
Oye, a former president of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), said the government needed to provide more information on the Abu Dhabi facility, particularly because it involved public institutions, sovereign obligations and public collateral.
His concerns followed Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele’s presentation of the Federal Government’s economic reform scorecard on August 19, 2026.
Oyedele had said the government would not publish details of how funds from the Abu Dhabi facility were being spent, arguing that government expenditure was already subject to public reporting and questioning why the particular facility should be treated differently.
Oye, however, said the explanation did not adequately address the accountability concerns surrounding the transaction.
He called for the disclosure of the material terms of the facility, including the drawdown schedule, purpose of the funds, collateral framework, fees, margin-call provisions, early-termination triggers and periodic utilisation reports.
He stressed that legislative approval of the facility was not the same as continuous public accountability.
“Legislative approval of the facility is not the same as continuous public accountability,” Oye said.
Beyond the Abu Dhabi facility, the Alliance questioned the government’s claim that its reforms had generated approximately N20.4 trillion in incremental Federal Government resources.
According to the Ministry’s scorecard, the figure comprises N5.43 trillion in estimated Federal Government subsidy savings, N3.12 trillion in other incremental revenues and N11.85 trillion in incremental borrowing.
The organisation noted that borrowing accounted for about 58 per cent of the N20.4 trillion.
Oye therefore argued that the figure should not be presented as N20.4 trillion in internally generated or “free” resources, but as a combination of fiscal savings, additional revenue and financing.
The Alliance also distinguished between the Federal Government’s share of subsidy savings and total savings generated across the federation.
It said the Ministry reported approximately N15.8 trillion in subsidy savings, comprising N5.43 trillion for the Federal Government, N6.52 trillion for states and N3.88 trillion for local governments.
The organisation also drew attention to the government’s reported N30.64 trillion in additional expenditure pressures, describing the figures as evidence of a mixed fiscal picture.
The expenditure pressures include N9.39 trillion for wage adjustments, wage awards, allowances and related personnel costs; N9.37 trillion from the exchange-rate impact on external debt service; N6.47 trillion for strategic infrastructure; and N3.14 trillion for electricity support.
The report noted that the N9.39 trillion wage-related pressure alone exceeded the Federal Government’s estimated N5.43 trillion share of subsidy savings.
However, Oye cautioned against treating the figures as a direct transfer of subsidy savings into wages, explaining that they represented different components of a multi-year fiscal adjustment.
According to the organisation, the government’s own presentation showed that additional spending exceeded incremental resources, with about two-thirds of the spending pressures covered by incremental resources and roughly one-third absorbed within the existing revenue base.
The Alliance also questioned whether headline macroeconomic improvements adequately reflected the experience of Nigerian households.
It acknowledged that headline inflation had fallen from 22.41 per cent in May 2023 to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, while the National Bureau of Statistics subsequently reported headline inflation of 15.43 per cent and food inflation of 20.31 per cent in July 2026.
It stressed, however, that falling inflation did not mean prices had returned to previous levels.
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The report argued that food inflation, real wages, employment quality and poverty should be considered alongside headline inflation when assessing the impact of the reforms.
It cited an IMF estimate that poverty had reached 63 per cent at Nigeria’s national poverty line, while about 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in autumn 2025.
Oye also acknowledged the improvement in Nigeria’s external reserves, noting that the Ministry reported gross reserves above $52 billion, while public reporting based on CBN data put the figure at approximately $52.5 billion in July 2026.
He cautioned, however, that reserve figures must be accompanied by clear dates and definitions because different institutions may use different methodologies.
The Alliance said stronger reserves represented a genuine economic gain by improving Nigeria’s external resilience, but warned that reserves should not be treated as ordinary budget revenue.
It therefore urged the Federal Government to publish the material terms of the Abu Dhabi facility while protecting genuinely commercially sensitive information.
It specifically called for disclosure of the facility’s amount, tenor, tranche structure, drawdown schedule, pricing, fees, break clauses, collateral arrangements, valuation methodology, margin-call and early-termination triggers, purpose of each drawdown and quarterly utilisation reports.
It also called for complex financing arrangements, including derivative-based and collateralised borrowing, to be incorporated into the government’s economic scorecard.
The report said such disclosures should cover gross exposure, drawn amounts, collateral status, valuation movements, refinancing risks and potential worst-case scenarios.
While raising the concerns, the Alliance acknowledged that the government’s economic reform scorecard represented an important step towards greater fiscal communication and that some of the reported macroeconomic gains were real.
It said the objective was not to dismiss the reforms but to ensure that their costs, financing sources and consequences were subjected to the same level of scrutiny as their achievements.
The organisation maintained that Nigeria’s economic recovery remained fragile and that sustaining the gains would depend not only on inflation, reserves and growth, but also on whether citizens could trust institutions managing public resources.
Naira loses 29% value in four years
In a separate analysis, Oye said the value of naira held by Nigerians had declined by almost one-third in real terms over four years, despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s report that currency in circulation rose to a record N5.73 trillion in 2025.
Oye said the increase in physical cash in circulation should not be interpreted as evidence of stronger economic activity, arguing that inflation had significantly eroded the purchasing power of Nigerians’ cash holdings.
The CBN’s 2025 Annual Report stated that currency in circulation stood at N5.73 trillion in 2025, compared with N5.44 trillion in 2024, attributing the increase to higher economic activity and demand for cash.
However, Oye’s analysis of CBN, NBS and World Bank data argued that the headline increase in cash circulation masked a deeper decline in the real value of money in Nigerians’ hands.
According to the report, currency in circulation increased from N3.325 trillion in 2021 to N5.733 trillion in 2025, representing nominal growth of 72.4 per cent.
But after adjusting for inflation, the report said the purchasing power of cash held by Nigerians fell by approximately 29 per cent between 2021 and 2025.
The report challenged the CBN’s explanation that the increase reflected stronger economic activity.
It noted that while Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.87 per cent in 2025 from 3.38 per cent in 2024, annual average inflation stood at 23.01 per cent during the same period.
Using inflation adjustment, the report calculated that real currency in circulation declined by approximately 14.3 per cent in 2025, despite the nominal increase in cash supply.
