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•Says $2.3trn needed to bridge infrastructure gap
By Merit Ibe
Chairman, Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) Ltd/GTE, Dele Oye, has lamented Nigeria’s worsening brain drain, saying it has reduced the country’s medical workforce to about 55,000 doctors serving a population of over 230 million.
This, he said, comes as decades of poor infrastructure continue to undermine economic growth and public service delivery.
In a policy brief titled “The Broken Windows of Nigeria: How Government Neglect Forged a Nation of Self-Reliant Survivists and the Uncommon Path to True Greatness,” Oye warned that Nigeria’s deteriorating public infrastructure has fuelled the mass migration of skilled professionals, particularly in the health sector.
According to the report, about 16,000 doctors left Nigeria within five years, leaving only 55,000 medical practitioners to cater to more than 230 million Nigerians.
It noted that Nigeria currently has 2.9 doctors per 10,000 people, far below the World Health Organization’s benchmark of 17 doctors per 10,000 population, while more than 80 per cent of healthcare workers surveyed indicated plans to emigrate.
Oye said the healthcare crisis mirrors broader institutional failures affecting electricity, roads, water supply and security, where years of government neglect have forced citizens to privately provide essential services.
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He also estimated that Nigeria requires $100 billion annually and $2.3 trillion over the next 20 years to close its infrastructure deficit, noting that the country’s infrastructure stock stands at just 35 per cent of GDP, compared with about 70 per cent in developed economies.
According to him, repeated national grid collapses have compelled households and businesses to rely on petrol and diesel generators, significantly increasing production costs and eroding competitiveness.
While acknowledging ongoing reforms in the power and health sectors, Oye said piecemeal interventions would not reverse years of institutional decay.
He called for comprehensive reforms, including guaranteed access to basic public services, a Citizen Dividend Fund to compensate Nigerians for self-provision of infrastructure, incentives to attract skilled professionals in the diaspora, and the establishment of a National Truth and Restitution Commission to rebuild public trust.
According to Oye, “Nigeria stands at a crossroads that is not unique in history but is uniquely urgent in its present moment. The Broken Windows Theory was developed to explain neighborhood decay. But Nigeria has proven that the same dynamics operate at the scale of nations.”
He added: “The generator’s roar is not the sound of resilience. It is the sound of a cry for help. The vigilante’s patrol is not the sign of community spirit. It is the sign of a state that has failed to protect. The doctor’s departure is not the pursuit of personal ambition. It is the verdict of a system that has abandoned its healers.”
