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From Oluseye Ojo, Ibadan
Today’s governorship election in Osun States will be a titanic contest. Many people see it as essentially a two-horse race, a straight contest between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Political observers and analysts have commented that either the APC candidate and sitting governor, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, and the PDP candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke, will emerge winner of today’s gubernatorial poll. But there are those that insist that candidates of the Accord, Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, and the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Lasun Yusuf should not be written off. But it is believed that the two parties could not presently meet up with the structures that APC and PDP had built already.
2018 Poll
Interestingly, Oyetola and Adeleke had also contested the 2018 governorship election in the state. At the end of the exercise, the election was declared inconclusive. A supplementary election was later held and Oyetola emerged winner and he was accordingly returned by INEC. Though PDP went to tribunal and the Court of Appeal, and the litigation eventually ended at the apex court in Nigeria, the Supreme Court. At all the levels, the election of Oyetola was upheld. Then, the PDP returned to the drawing board, preparing for today’s governorship election. Also, APC settled for governance. The supplementary election was held in seven polling units across four local governments. Three of the units were located in Orolu Local Government, two in Ife South, one in Ife North and another one in Osogbo Local Government.
Amidst allegations of harassment and other forms malpractice, the APC candidate won six of the seven units. At the end of the tally of votes, the APC candidate scored a total of 255,505 votes, while the PDP candidate scored a total of 255,023 votes.
At the end of the first round of the ballots in 2018, Adeleke had led his APC rival with 353 votes. But the table turned around the following Thursday after the supplementary election was held. The APC candidate overtook the PDP candidate and beat him with a total margin of 482 votes. The APC also won a total of 16 local governments and PDP won in 11. The SDP won two, while the Action Democratic Party (ADP) also won in one local government.
INEC said the poll was declared inconclusive because the margin of votes was less than the number of cancelled votes in seven polling units. Elections were cancelled in the polling units based on reported irregularities such as ballot box snatching, manual accreditation and missing result sheets.
Build up to 2023
In the APC, the relationship that was described as frosty between Aregbesola and Aregbesola became pronounced. As soon as Oyetola settled down for governance, he reviewed some of the policies that Aregbesola introduced, especially the educational policy, which mandated all pupils in Osun State to wear the same uniform, irrespective of schools.
The review of the policies made Aregbesola and his supporters in the state to go against Oyetola openly, though the matter was being diplomatically handled prior to that time. Oyetola was questioned on why he would change the polices despite the fact that he was the Chief of Staff to Aregbesola when the policies were formulated. The sincerity of Oyetola in Aregbesola’s administration was also questioned, whether he deliberately kept quiet then and watched the administration to take wrong decisions for him to shine later. An assertion was also made that there was little Oyetola could have done in influencing the government decision as the Chief of Staff, when the governor had taken a position and that he could only advise his principal.
The internal wrangling in the party continued till the party held its governorship primary. Though strong forces rose against the emergence of Oyetola, he won the exercise convincingly.
The outburst of Aregbesola before the party’s governorship primary against Tinubu showed that he had pitted himself against Oyetola. The late Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Olayiwola Adeyemi III, intervened in the imbroglio with a view to brokering peace. But how the matter was resolved was not in the public knowledge. In the PDP, the internal wrangling within the party was a major factor that initially unsettled the party. The party’s candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke, went to the PDP primary with Wole Oyebamiji and Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi. The first issue that arose in the party was that after the primary, Oyebamiji went to court and was declared winner of the party primary. For a long period, both Adeleke and Oyebamiji presented themselves as governorship candidates of the party. But the matter was later resolved and Adeleke won.
Defections
In the PDP, Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, who contested the PDP gubernatorial ticket against Adeleke in 2018, and narrowly lost the ticket, dumped PDP for Accord Party in the build up to today’s poll. He defected to the new party with his large followers, and he is now the party’s governorship candidate, which may deplete the number of voters that will cast their votes of PDP.
In the ruling APC, a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf, also contested for the party’s governorship ticket against Governor Oyetola. He lost and defected from APC to the Labour Party (LP). He is now flying the flag of LP for today’s election. Though, there are governorship candidates apart from those mentioned in some of the other political parties that will feature in today’s poll, pundits have said they would come a distant far behind the duo of Oyetola and Adeleke.
The deputy governorship candidate of the PDP in the 2018 in the state, Albert Adeogun, has dumped the party for APC. Then, former PDP state chairman, Wale Ojo, and 10,423 other members also joined the APC.
Receiving the defectors some says ago, Governor Oyetola, said: “I congratulate our friends and brothers who have made a critical decision in their political careers and fortunes. You have come at the right time and you have nothing to fear. You are already members; there will be no discrimination whatsoever. Senator Omisore is a testimony that our party values people of substance and gives a fair chance to all.”
Scores of APC members have also defected to other political parties, including PDP and LP, ahead of today’s election.
Factors that will determine winners
For Governor Gboyega Oyetola, the power of incumbency cannot be ruled out in the factors that will determine the winner of today’s election. The fact that APC has been administering the state consecutively within the past 12 years would also play a strong role. The policies of Governor Gboyega Oyetola, some claimed, also endeared him to majority of the people that fell aggrieved with some of the policies of Aregbesola.
Investigation revealed that a number of power brokers in Osun State are supporting Oyetola because of what they term his sterling qualities in the management of resources accrued to the state. His administration has not borrowed a kobo since he took over the reins of power in 2018. He also has an of achievements to his credit within the past 45 months.
Another strong factor that may work in favour of Oyetola to win the poll is the influence of a former deputy governor of the state, Senator Iyiola Omisore, who is the current National Secretary of APC. Omisore, as gathered, is rightly positioned to deliver majority of votes from Ife and Ijesha zones for APC. Aregbesola, it was observed, exacts lower level of influence in Ijesha, where he hails from like Omisore.
In the rerun election that was held after the 2018 gubernatorial poll in the state, which was declared inconclusive, the APC had to form some alliance with Omisore, who had contested the main poll as the governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He supported Oyetola to victory during the rerun poll.
Some chieftains of the party said Governor Oyetola has kept the promises made to Omisore during the alliance talks. He eventually dumped SDP for APC and he is now the National Secretary of the party. It is expected that he will deploy everything in his arsenal to support Oyetola to electoral victory.
The influence of the 2023 presidential candidate of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, may also work for Oyetola to emerge winner of the election. Tinubu, as gathered, would not want to lose any state in the South West to the opposition party ahead of the next year’s general elections. All people that matter in the APC, both at national, zonal and state level have at one time or other appealed to the people of the state to support Oyetola.
The PDP candidate, Adeleke is loved by a number of people because he dances very well. But some people also dislike him for that same skill. Adeleke, who is the younger brother of a former governor of the state from 1991 to 1993, the late Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke, is surrounded by family members that can match the ruling party dollar-for-dollar. Political commentators have said Adeleke would give APC a tough time because he contested in 2018 and he has learnt his lessons. He also has the support of PDP at the national and zonal levels to win the election.
The Adeleke Family of Ede is well noted for its philanthropic activities within and outside the state. The family’s business interests also provide employment for many residents of the state.
How the candidates stand
Candidates of the five political parties that will slug it out today met at a recent debate organised by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), Yoruba Service. The candidates are Adegboyega Oyetola of APC, Ademola Adeleke of PDP, Akin Ogunbiyi of Accord, Lasun Yusuf of LP, and Goke Omigbodun of SDP. The PDP candidate responded to what people have been saying about him on how he dances. According to him, dancing is his hobby. If elected, he promised, he would dance and this would not affect good governance that his administration would give to Osun State.
Governor Oyetola noted that his administration has prioritise the welfare of people, civil servants and infrastructural development in the state, in spite of the cash crunch. He promised that he would do better if re-elected for a second term of another four years. For the Accord candidate, Ogunbiyi, the economic drive of the state could be changed through giving adequate attention to agriculture and youth employment. He added that his administration would not wait for federal allocation to run the state.
The candidate of Labour Party, Lasun Yusuf, also stated that all the candidates contesting for today’s governorship poll have been theoretical about their knowledge of agricultural sector because they are not practising farmers like him. “If elected, I will lend women in the state N9billion to promote economy,” he promised.
Goke Omigbodun of SDP also said he is the best person for the job. Other candidates, according to him, did not have working manifesto they can leverage on to transform the state if elected. He also promised to resuscitate the ‘Opon Imo’ initiative of Aregbesola in the educational system.
The opinion poll conducted on the governorship poll revealed that Governor Gboyega Oyetola of APC might emerge the winner, while Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP may come second. It was expressed that the winning margin between the duo would be very close in the two-horse contest. But the opinion poll might not be the true reflections of the results of today’s poll, which is a sort of return match for Oyetola and Adeleke, after the first match of 2018, won by Oyetola via the supplementary election.
