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By Oluwafemi Popoola
The just-concluded National Convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that produced Atiku Abubakar as the party’s standard-bearer has kick-started a series of discussions and permutations in the camp of the ruling party.
Similarly, engagement has begun in earnest on who should the ruling APC present as its candidate alongside a combustible mix of other topics that border on the choice and expectations of the Nigerian people in the 2023 general election.
The former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, is no stranger to the country’s electoral process.
Atiku has been running for Nigeria’s topmost office since 1993 and has been on the presidential ballot since 2007. His emergence, was, therefore, not surprising to many political watchers and observers given his long years of experience at the polls.
Atiku’s agelong quest of becoming Nigeria’s president will largely be determined by how the ruling party can put its house in order. There has been a national clamour for a Southern presidency from all political and ethnic divides and it is just a matter of few days before the ruling party elects its candidate who will fly the party’s presidential banner at the 2023 general elections, and the 6th of June has been fixed for the party to hold its presidential primary election. For a party that is said to be poised to fix Nigeria forever, choosing a candidate for 2023 will tell if the party will either remain in power or go into extinction after the next electoral circle.
The outright disregard for the gentleman arrangements of power rotation between the North and the South by the PDP will definitely mar the chances of Atiku at the polls which may further consign him to another electoral defeat. It is one thing to be a ballot veteran, it is another to examine if your candidature dovetails into the current yearnings of many Nigerians. The national mood in Nigeria today calls for a Southern presidency in 2023 and that alone will torpedo the Atiku candidacy. Nigerians can’t serve another Northern president again after Muhammadu Buhari leaves the seat of power. It even betrays the trajectory of power rotation between the North and South ever since we began the Fourth Republic in 1999. Nigerians can’t be taken for a ride. Having a Northern president in 2023 is dead on arrival.
Since the Fourth Republic, there has been a rotation of power between the South and the North. Not only that, it has been from one Christian president to a Muslim president. This is the system the country has been used to with constitution backing. It is more or less like an unwritten law. Obasanjo as a Southern president in 1999, transferred the power to Umaru Yar’Adua a Northern Muslim after his eight-year tenure expired. From Umaru Yar’Adua, down to Goodluck Johnathan a Southern Christian and to Muhammadu Buhari who will hand over the presidency to another Southern Christian in 2023. This has been the dynamics of Nigeria’s politics which is laced with ethnic and religious sentiments. This is also the reason the country hasn’t exploded.
The ruling APC must put its house in order and present a popular Southern Christian candidate if the party is serious about retaining power in 2023 and beyond. The likely candidate that fits into the equation is the current Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, SAN, who has constantly been praised by high and low in the country for his leadership skills and competence.
Atiku may have been deceived into thinking that he could pull the same number of votes he got at the 2019 general elections. For example in 2019, he had 11.2 million and from
the 11.2 million votes, a whopping 5.1 million came from the South most especially the South-South and South-East. But in all, he has never won a national election.
And again, the former Vice President struggled to win even in his own State Adamawa for PDP. He got 412, 266 as against APC’s 377,488 votes. Also, in that same election, Atiku lost his polling unit to the APC in his home state Adamawa.
It is safe to assume that without support from the South, Atiku will only struggle to raise seven million votes across the country irrespective of who he chooses as his running mate. He will not come close to any popular candidate from the South if the ruling party put its act together and pick a Southern Christian as the party’s flag bearer in the forthcoming party convention.
The APC should search no further, and adopt the remarkable Vice President, Prof Osinbajo as the presidential flag bearer. The country needs a breath of fresh air to stir it towards more development and its destiny as Africa’s global power.
There is a need for a strategic, conscious attempt to ‘intellectualise’ and bring decency into the entire governance architecture in the country. Above all, Nigeria needs a leadership that is knowledge-driven, hands-on, and with the right democratic reflexes. Osinbajo ticks all the boxes. He will not only win the election for the party, but he will also set the country on the part of development and progress. This is the masterstroke for the party.
• Popoola, a political analyst and News aggregator, can be reached via [email protected]
