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From Jacob Edi, Abuja
In the next few weeks, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, will be on the spot as it conducts the governorship election in Ondo State. Quite naturally, anxiety is high after the just concluded Edo election.
It will be recalled that even as the build up to the Edo election gathered momentum, fears reached a peak on whether or not the electoral body was ready to conduct the exercise. Even though INEC apparently withered the storm and conducted the election but the fallout has left the electoral umpire with more bruises. And with the choice of Jimoh Ibrahim as the standard bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) and the drama that attended the announcement, it was obvious that there may not have been any fundamental departure from the past or that it has failed to learn from its mistakes.
Curiously, Professor Mahmood Yakubu’s INEC that chose Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the Makarfi-led PDP to fly the party’s flag in the Edo election picked Jimoh Ibrahim to carry the PDP flag in the case of Ondo. The millionaire publisher is a product of the Ali Modu-Sherrif’s PDP leadership. It is not clear why INEC embarked on the u-turn but political pundits believe that the electoral body may have been boxed to a corner especially with the legal issues left unresolved. Tongues are now wagging on which side of the divide INEC is. As things stand, only the court can stop the billionaire publisher from contesting the election and until the courts decide otherwise, every other preparation for the election will go on. Herein lies the contradiction. The burning question is whether INEC would have adopted Jimoh Ibrahim if he didn’t shout about his claim that the commission’s top official had approached him for a bribe of one million dollar. With what literally are the consistent inconsistencies, it is not clear if the electoral body under its current leadership will have the capacity to conduct a free and fair election in 2019 when it will be expected to handle all the states of the federation at once.
In Kogi, Rivers, Bauchi, Edo, there are tales of woes.
In the beginning, it was Kogi. The November 21, 2015 governorship election was abruptly declared inconclusive and a supplementary election was ordered. The unprecedented circumstance leading to the cancellation and matters that arose therefrom is still shrouded in mystery and controversy. The ruling of the Supreme Court, though accepted since it’s the highest court in the land, appears to have opened more vista to constitution and constitutionality.
Then came Bayelsa state; the situation was not essentially different. INEC was alleged to be complicit in the events that led to the cancellation of the election. It was expected that INEC would have upped its game ostensibly learning from the mistakes in the handling and outcome of the Kogi election, but this was not to be. Granted that the political actors in Bayelsa may have displayed desperation, INEC apparently refused to cooperate with security forces as sensitive electoral materials were not delivered early enough. There was also a strong allegation of bias against the commission’s officials.
Rivers State was another case in point. The conduct of the election ended in a fiasco leaving the integrity of the electoral umpire in shreds.
Does INEC have the powers to declare elections inconclusive?
As the debate continues, it is instructive to note that in spite of the discomfort of inconclusive election, INEC has powers under the constitution to declare it so.
Having regards to the peculiar political and socio-cultural terrain of Nigeria and that inadvertently things can go off track, the framers of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as well as the electoral act envisaged that elections may be conclusive or inconclusive.
For instance, section 133 and 179 of the Constitution provides that a candidate for an election to the office of President or Governor shall be deemed to have been duly elected to such an office where, being the only candidate nominated for the election, he has a majority of YES votes over NO votes cast at the elections; and he has not less than one quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja but where the only candidate fails to be elected in accordance with section 133 and 179, then there shall be fresh nominations.
Similarly, Section 134 and 179 of the Constitution provides that where there are more than one candidate in an election to the office of President or Governor, to be elected, a candidate shall score majority of lawful votes cast at the election; and has not less than one quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja or two thirds of all the local governments in the state.
According to the constitution, “If a candidate fails to secure the requisite majority of votes and the requisite spread, the electoral management body is constitutionally mandated to declare the said election inconclusive and conduct a new election in accordance with the Constitution and the Electoral Act.”
Section 26(1) of the Electoral Act also states that “Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the election as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election, provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable.”
There are also cases of violent attack on INEC in the form of setting their offices ablaze or disrupting the free movement of their offices’ vehicles conveying electoral materials and personnel were hijacked while in some instances false results were declared or that security agencies fail to secure and provide a good environment for the conduct of credible elections.
In spite of this rather legal rationalization for INEC, the spate of inconclusive elections has become one too many under the management of INEC as presently constituted.
No cause for alarm?
But the electoral body has maintained that the gale of inconclusive elections will not detract it from its set goals. Indeed, INEC seems to have launched a campaign to defend its actions. Leading the pack is the chairman of the commission, Professor Yakubu. According to him, politicians, rather than INEC should be held responsible for inconclusive elections. What is however made manifest is his defense of the development which now hangs on Professor Yakubu’s neck like the sword of domocles .
“We can’t second-guess to say this is the outcome of an election before it happens, unless we are not conducting elections. We hope it won’t lead to that, but if it happens, the constitution has a way out of it.
“There is no way the commission will declare any election conclusive where the threshold is not met. We can only declare an election conclusive when we are satisfied with the law and electoral act because all elections are governed by constitutional provisions, provisions of the electoral act and our guidelines. This is the challenge that we face, but we must express it because we (INEC) will not compromise.
“The constitution of this country provides condition for making return in an election. If that threshold is not met, can INEC make a declaration? We can’t, under the law, and if you do so, the court will nullify the election and then we incur costs to do the election again.
“As to what will happen in 2019, only God knows, but we will abide by the provisions of the constitution, the electoral law and our guidelines in making declarations. We can only hope for the best.
“It is not strange. More than any commission in the history of this country, we have conducted more elections outside the context of general elections. People often forget that we had inconclusive elections in the past.
“So, let’s hope for the best, but it is everybody’s responsibility to make this democracy work. Citizens can protect their mandate. If we play by the rules and we are patient, I’m sure we will minimise all these issues leading to inconclusiveness.”
However, the INEC boss said apart from power play by political gladiators, the emergence of strong political parties had made the elections more competitive.
“When we had one dominant political party and other smaller parties, elections were always conclusive, but now, by evolution, not by imposition, we have two strong political parties, fielding strong candidates, making the elections extremely competitive,” he added.
When asked if he was being teleguided by the executive as rumoured in some quarters, he said there was no such thing, noting that both the opposition and the ruling parties had accused him of being teleguided by the executive anytime their party didn’t win an election.
In deed, the former US Ambassador to Nigeria, James Entwistle put the blame of inconclusive election on the door step of politicians thus: “Politicians often fail to adhere to the principle of non-violence which leads to disruption of the electoral process.”
Going forward
Barring last minute changes, all seem set for the Ondo election. Naturally, complaints have dogged some of the actions already taken in actualizing the election. It will no doubt be another litmus test for Professor Yakubu and his team of INEC managers and how it plays out will have an incalculable effect on the conduct and credibility of the 2019 elections.
Observers believe that INEC must take a few actions which will help it not to make the same mistake. One of such measures include setting up a security committee for every election consisting of members of all the political parties, serving and retired police officers, selected members from CSOs and other members from INEC, ensuring that accreditation of voters is simultaneously done in all the polling centers, the publication of all the registered voters in all the wards before voting commences, assigning more than one National Electoral Commissioner to violent prone states to supervise each constituency, electorates should ensure that the results are counted in their presence, agreed and signed by all party agents, electorates should be allowed to use their cameras or phones to record the exercise, INEC should not call off or postpone elections in vulnerable wards or declare elections inconclusive on security grounds but should beef up security around such areas while security personnel be allowed to deal with any erring voter and whisk him or her away from the polling booth, while voting should continue.
Most importantly, the electoral umpire should act its appellation and be truly independent and non-partisan.
