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From Adanna Nnamani, Abuja
Nigeria’s external position is set for a remarkable turnaround in 2026, with analysts forecasting a $17.7 billion current account surplus, equivalent to 4.9 percent of GDP. The projection, according to data from FMDQ and CardinalStone Research, signals a sharp shift from years of oil-dependent vulnerability to a more diversified and resilient external account.
In its report, “2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” CardinalStone Research noted that the projected surplus would be Nigeria’s strongest in recent years, supporting foreign exchange stability and boosting investor confidence. Analysts attribute this positive outlook to higher foreign inflows, expanding exports of refined petroleum products, and strengthened foreign exchange buffers.
“Record inflows of Foreign Direct Investments and Foreign Portfolio Investments, combined with improved FX liquidity, are central to Nigeria’s strengthened external position,” the report stated. In 2025, FDI and FPI reached $18.7 billion, driving total foreign inflows to N48.8 trillion, more than double the 2023 levels. Analysts link this surge to growing investor confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic policies and increased participation in equities and fixed income markets.
A key driver of the improved outlook is the emergence of refined petroleum products as a major export line. With the Dangote Refinery boosting local refining capacity, Nigeria has shifted from being a net importer of refined fuel to an exporter. Refined petroleum product exports contributed $4.2 billion in FX inflows in the first nine months of 2025, representing 11.2 percent of oil-related exports. This figure is expected to rise to $6.5 billion by year-end and reach $10.2 billion in 2026. Other refinery projects, including those by BUA, are expected to reinforce this growth trajectory.
While crude oil export receipts are forecast to decline due to weaker global prices—estimated at $55.08 per barrel—gas exports are projected to surge. Analysts predict gas export revenues will hit $11.3 billion in 2026, up from $8.3 billion in 2025, driven by Europe’s diversification away from Russian gas. The shift toward refined products and gas exports is helping to offset declining crude oil earnings.
The structural transformation of Nigeria’s external position is also reflected in a sharp drop in oil imports. Imports, which averaged $4.4 billion per quarter between 2021 and 2024, have fallen to less than $1 billion, a trend expected to continue and further strengthen the trade balance.
“Nigeria is transitioning to a more diversified external account, reducing vulnerability to global oil price shocks while expanding new revenue sources,” the report added. Analysts highlight that these changes will not only improve trade balances but also enhance FX stability, which has been a longstanding challenge for the economy.
Nigeria’s external account tracks the country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world and serves as a key barometer of macroeconomic stability. It includes the current account, which records trade in goods and services, income flows, and remittances, as well as the capital and financial account, which tracks foreign investment, borrowing, and other capital movements.
The 2026 projections suggest that, for the first time in several years, Nigeria’s external sector is aligning with broader economic reforms, positioning the country for sustainable growth. As refined petroleum and gas exports gain prominence, foreign investment continues to climb, and local industries expand, analysts are increasingly confident that the country is entering a period of external and macroeconomic resilience.
