Nigeria tagged ‘critical’ as new report flags rising economic,

By Chinwendu Obienyi

Nigeria has been ranked in the “critical” category on the 2025 Instability Risk Index published by SBM Intelligence, scoring 52 out of 100 points.

SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused market and security intelligence firm, released the report on Monday, highlighting the political and economic pressures that could affect business operations, investment flows and overall stability.

Nigeria’s placement in one of the continent’s most vulnerable categories signals growing concerns over governance, security and economic management.

The rating is a clear warning for both policymakers and investors. According to SBM Intelligence, the current trends suggest that risks are rising and could undermine long-term confidence if not urgently addressed. The report underscores the fragility of Nigeria’s institutional and economic frameworks and calls for targeted reforms to prevent further deterioration.

SBM Intelligence’s methodology evaluates four major risk clusters: Leadership and Governance (40% weighting), Economy (30%), Geopolitics (15%), and History (15%). Each cluster is broken down into multiple indicators, which collectively produce the overall score. In the 2025 assessment, Nigeria scored 16 in Leadership and Governance, 20 in Economy, 6 in Geopolitics, and 10 in History. These scores combined to give a total of 52 points, firmly placing the country in the “critical” bracket.

The report points to persistent challenges in Nigeria’s economic and security environment. Widespread insecurity, deepening poverty, and the aftershocks of major policy reforms continue to strain stability. SBM Intelligence noted that while the country’s GDP shows some improvement, rising living costs, exacerbated by the removal of petrol subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have pushed many citizens into hardship and forced some businesses to close.

“Nigeria’s economy remains fragile, with slowing inflation, widespread insecurity, and deepening poverty all undermining stability,” SBM Intelligence observed. The report acknowledged that government-led fiscal tightening and efforts to re-engage investors have helped prevent a total economic collapse. These measures, though painful for ordinary citizens, have contributed to stabilising key macroeconomic fundamentals in the medium term.

On the political front, the lingering effects of the contentious 2023 elections continue to influence governance and national cohesion. While divisions persist, the report recognizes that institutional continuity and ongoing reform efforts have so far prevented the country from slipping into deeper instability. SBM Intelligence described Nigeria’s trajectory as a “precarious path of slow recovery,” signaling both progress and ongoing vulnerabilities.

The report also provides a regional perspective, noting that other African countries have fared better or worse on the 2025 rankings. Countries such as Congo Brazzaville (55), Chad (64), Zambia (35), Benin (42), Ivory Coast (44), Equatorial Guinea (49), Guinea (51), Ghana (32), Malawi (36), and Mozambique (39) all feature in the ranking.

Conflicts in Sudan, the M-23 crisis between Rwanda and Congo, attempted coups, and Islamist insurgencies across West Africa contributed to poor regional performances.

Nigeria’s instability ratings are reinforced by other governance assessments. In August, the country ranked 116th in the 2025 Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI), a global benchmark released by the Chandler Institute of Governance. The CGGI evaluates the effectiveness and capability of national governments, and Nigeria’s low ranking highlights continuing struggles across key governance indicators and its failure to rank among Africa’s top five performers.

Overall, the SBM Intelligence report signals that while Nigeria shows signs of stabilizing reforms, the country remains on high alert. Rising insecurity, economic pressures, and political divisions continue to pose serious risks, underscoring the need for urgent, coordinated action to restore confidence among citizens, investors, and international partners.