The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a leading think tank, has defended the credibility of two recent reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and unemployment rates. This response comes amid skepticism from critics who previously praised another NBS report highlighting economic challenges but now question the validity of the more positive findings.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI addressed these contradictions:
“It is inconsistent to accept one NBS report while rejecting another without a factual or logical basis. The NBS reported a decline in Nigeria’s unemployment rate from 5.3 per cent in Q1 2024 to 4.3 per cent in Q2 2024, indicating that only four out of every 100 Nigerians are unemployed. Similarly, GDP growth accelerated to 3.46 per cent (year-on-year) in Q3 2024, surpassing the 2.54 per cent recorded in Q3 2023 and the 3.19 per cent growth in Q2 2024.”
IMPI noted that some critics dismissed these statistics as “too good to be true,” dubbing them “voodoo data” or “propaganda figures” without substantial evidence. Others questioned the methodologies used, citing a lack of transparency. However, the think tank emphasized that the NBS has adopted globally recognized standards since Q1 2023, ensuring accuracy and alignment with international metrics.
IMPI highlighted that the NBS adheres to the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) updated methodology, which defines employment as engaging in paid work for at least one hour in the past seven days.
This change, which expands the scope of measurement, captures a broader spectrum of self-employed individuals.
“The new methodology reflects the realities of Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape, where 71.2 million Nigerians are self-employed, compared to 12.96 million wage earners in a labour force of 88.9 million,” the statement explained.
The inclusion of self-employment data, such as small-scale farming, retail operations, and transportation services, provides a more comprehensive picture of Nigeria’s labour market. This adjustment, IMPI argued, explains the reduction in unemployment figures and aligns with trends in similar developing economies.
The think tank also commended the GDP growth data, noting its alignment with labour market trends. IMPI lauded the service sector’s contribution, which accounted for 53.58 per cent of GDP in Q3 2024, despite a slight decline from 58.76 per cent in Q2 2024. Over the past four years, the service sector has consistently contributed an average of 50 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP.
“The service sector, encompassing ICT, trade, and financial services, remains the cornerstone of Nigeria’s economic development,” the statement read.
IMPI emphasised the role of ICT in driving economic growth, citing robust telecom growth of 6.78 per cent in Q3 2024. The sector’s expansion is underpinned by rising broadband penetration and sustained demand for digital services, even amid economic challenges.
The think tank urged the government to prioritize investments and policies that bolster the service sector, particularly ICT.
“A 10 per cent increase in mobile broadband penetration can boost GDP per capita by 2.5 per cent, while a similar increase in internet penetration can raise real GDP per capita by 0.57 to 0.63 percentage points. With strategic investments, ICT can solidify its role as Nigeria’s growth engine, driving the nation toward a more connected and digital future,” IMPI stated.
The statement also highlighted the significant fiscal contributions of foreign digital firms operating in Nigeria, including Google, Microsoft, and TikTok, which collectively paid N2.55 trillion in taxes in the first half of 2024.
IMPI reaffirmed its confidence in the NBS reports and urged Nigerians to focus on the progress reflected in the data.
“These figures underscore a positive trajectory for Nigeria’s economy and labour market. The skepticism surrounding them should be replaced with constructive dialogue on how to sustain and amplify this growth,” the statement concluded.