More births, more pressure

•Nigeria races against population explosion

From Fred Ezeh, Abuja

Nigeria is in a race against time. With an estimated population of about 230 million people and between eight million and 10 million new Nigerians added every year, the country is facing a demographic reality that could either propel it to greater prosperity or deepen its social and economic challenges.

Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Ali Pate, said by 2050, Nigeria’s population is projected to rise to between 450 million and 500 million. At the inauguration of the Nigeria Family Planning 2030 (FP2030) Interministerial Platform on Family Planning and Human Capital Development in Abuja, last week, he explained the figure would “potentially make Nigeria the third or fourth most populous country in the world.

“But the challenge is not simply about the number of people. It is about whether Nigeria can build enough schools, hospitals, jobs, houses, roads and other social infrastructure to support a rapidly expanding population. It is also about whether families have the information, services and freedom to make informed decisions about the timing and spacing of pregnancies.

“Undoubtedly, our population is our greatest asset. Not oil, nor the mineral resources under the soil, but our people. If we fail in doing that, that population that we will have can easily become a liability.” The minister captured the dilemma confronting Nigeria: more people can mean a larger workforce, bigger consumer market and stronger economic base. But when population growth outpaces economic opportunities and social investment, the consequences can be severe.

Unprepared population

At the FP2030 inauguration, it was highlighted that every new Nigerian eventually needs access to healthcare, education, food, housing, water, sanitation and employment. And for a country already struggling to provide adequate services to its existing population, the implications of adding millions more people every year are enormous, and the pressure begins from birth.

A growing population means more women requiring antenatal care and skilled birth attendance, more children needing immunisation and primary healthcare, more classrooms and teachers, and eventually millions of young people entering an increasingly competitive labour market.

Pate said Nigeria must therefore begin to see population management as a national development issue rather than an issue that belongs exclusively to the health sector.

He explained that the Federal Government was adopting a life-course approach, which is from the adolescent girl who needs education, protection and empowerment, through pregnancy and safe childbirth, childhood survival, schooling, youth development and eventual transition into the labour market.

He said the ultimate objective was to create a population with fewer dependants, and more productive citizens contributing to economic growth. “It is a strategy that requires the ministries responsible for health, education, finance, budget and economic planning, women affairs and youth development to work together to achieve the goal,” he said.

The National Population Commission.(NPopC) and the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) also have important roles to play, particularly in population planning, fertility trends, demographic projections, maternal and child health and access to essential services.

Pate said the National Orientation Agency (NOA) would also be needed to create awareness, mobilise communities and confront misinformation capable of undermining health interventions. “The message is simple and clear: Nigeria cannot manage population growth successfully if government continues to operate in silos.

The youth factor

The consequences of rapid population growth will ultimately be felt most heavily by Nigeria’s youthful population.

The Minister of Youth Development, Ayodele Olawande, told participants at the event that health must be treated as an integral part of the country’s response to unemployment and underdevelopment: “A youth who has good health and well-being can learn better and think fast. He will be able to be more productive and also think about innovations. This is important because Nigeria’s demographic future will largely depend on what happens to its young population.

“Millions of children being born today will become tomorrow’s workers, entrepreneurs, professionals, parents and leaders. If they receive quality education, healthcare, skills and opportunities, they could become the workforce capable of transforming the economy. But if they enter adulthood without adequate education, skills, healthcare or employment, the demographic dividend could quickly turn into a demographic burden.

“For women, the stakes are equally high. Improved reproductive health would strengthen women’s dignity, safety and empowerment and enable them to participate more fully in family, community and national life.” He linked education with reproductive health, noting that educated girls are better positioned to make informed decisions about their reproductive lives, while improved health outcomes can reduce school dropout associated with unintended pregnancy.

Child survival, family planning

One of the less obvious dimensions of Nigeria’s population challenge is the relationship between child survival and fertility decisions. Pateexplained that where child mortality remains high, families may be less willing to reduce the number of children they desire because they are uncertain about how many will survive. “If children are dying in high numbers, it’s very difficult for families to reduce their desired fertility,” he said.

This creates a cycle in which high fertility contributes to population growth, while poor health outcomes reinforce the desire for larger families. “Breaking that cycle requires simultaneous investment in maternal, newborn and child health, immunisation, primary healthcare and family planning,” he said.

The Minister explained that the newly inaugurated FP2030 interministerial platform was intended to provide the mechanism for such coordination. “The initiative is also expected to strengthen the availability of family planning commodities,” he added.

Pate disclosed that a pharmaceutical company in Anambra State would, for the first time, produce family planning commodities in Nigeria in collaboration with Bayer, describing the development as significant not only for Nigeria but for the sub-Saharan African region.

He said: “Local production could reduce dependence on imported commodities, while creating employment opportunities for young Nigerians. It  could also strengthen the resilience of Nigeria’s family planning supply chain which is an important consideration in a country seeking to manage rapid population growth.”

The funding challenge

At the gathering, it was also highlighted that policies, platforms and local production have little impact if adequate financial resources are not available.

Pate said funding is one of the major concerns in the project, calling on the 36 states and local governments to become active participants in the national effort, stressing that population and health challenges cannot be solved from Abuja alone obviously making reference to the fact that health is on the concurrent legislative list.

He noted that the Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative already had a compact with the 36 state governors, local governments through the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON), and development partners.

“It’s expected that the new platform should bring stakeholders closer and, more importantly, shift the emphasis from meetings and policy conversations to implementation.

“We should focus on action, so that it’s not just a platform for conversations, meetings and minutes, but that there are concrete, tangible actions, including providing the resources,” he said.

Pate also drew attention to the gap between budgetary allocations and actual releases. “I think we have made progress in terms of the allocations, but the issue is the releases,” he said, urging the Ministry of Finance to ensure that approved funds were made available for implementation.

He said recent findings from the mini-Demographic and Health Survey showed an upward trend in some indicators, but warned against complacency, adding that the improvement was only the beginning. “We need to intensify that, but we also need states to join in that effort,” he said.

Civil society organisations also shared the concern.  Chairman of Health Sector Reform Coalition (HSRC), Dr. Mustafa Lecky alongside Dr. Ejike Orji, welcomed the inauguration of the interministerial platform, describing it as an important step towards strengthening multisectoral collaboration.

The coalition pledged to support government through advocacy, community engagement, accountability and evidence-based interventions, and called for sustained political commitment, adequate financing and inclusive participation to ensure that policies produce measurable results.

The Coalition recalled a recent commitment that one per cent of health budgets should go towards supporting family planning commodity procurement, stressing the importance of ensuring consistent availability of commodities.

A race Nigeria must win

The emerging consensus among government and non-governmental stakeholders is that Nigeria’s population growth cannot be ignored neither should population growth be treated as an inherently negative development.

A large and youthful population can provide Nigeria with a vast workforce, a huge consumer market and the human capital required to drive innovation and economic transformation. But the problem begins when population growth is not matched by investment.

As millions of additional Nigerians are born every year, the country must simultaneously expand healthcare, schools, employment opportunities, housing, infrastructure and social protection.

Pate said President Bola Tinubu’s vision of a prosperous, peaceful and people-oriented Nigeria would depend heavily on the quality of the country’s population.

Similarly, many participants at the event said the question, therefore, is not simply how many Nigerians the country will have in 2050. but what kind of Nigerians Nigeria will have. Will they be healthy enough to work, educated enough to innovate and skilled enough to compete?

Will women have the reproductive health services and information needed to make informed choices? Will young people find opportunities to turn their potential into productivity? Will the health and education systems expand quickly enough to keep pace with population growth?

They said the newly inaugurated FP2030 Interministerial Platform is an attempt to answer those questions by bringing health, education, youth development, women affairs, finance, budget and population management under a common framework.

It was noted that the success of the project will depend on what happens beyond the conference room. “For Nigeria, the challenge is no longer simply to accommodate more births. It is to ensure that every additional Nigerian has a realistic opportunity to survive, learn, work and thrive.

“Hence, the race against population growth has begun. Whether Nigeria wins it will depend on how quickly the country converts political commitments into investments in the people who will ultimately determine its future,”  some participants said.