Mafia game

In the Mafia game no one is a master except the one or the group that leads it. Now this.The writer’s world transcends the natural. It has a link with the supernatural also. Scholars of the outer realm agree it is superior to the natural where men like us operate. In fact it has become a very popular saying that the supernatural controls the natural. There are times we look for something as simple as casting a headline that would appropriately encapsulate the issues in question and to arrest the attention of the public.

It is not as easy as many think. This outing is zeroed on our country’s political scene in the very recent months, especially the take over of what could rightly be termed a near dormant political party, African Democratic Congress (ADC) by sections of the political players, who have the ambition to replace the central government put in place by All Progressives Congress (APC) and led by President Bola Tinubu, a strong political strategist in his own right .

   Since the unveiling of the platform as the launchpad for fresh efforts by the opposition to oust the incumbent from power, tongues have been wagging across the country and even beyond as if the new is indeed a sound political strategy, whether it would work or just a mirage. The political temperature has gone up. Government officials and the ruling party say they are not perturbed but they have never ceased from talking about the development and castigating the movers, an obvious indication of apprehension.

   One can see why it was difficult to find a suitable headline. Do talk about the people involved, the effort to form a new political party, the reticent behavior of the electoral body over the question of party registration or whether the move would last and then if it is capable of unseating the Tinubu administration. One thing that is very clear is that the new rally isn’t entirely new. Building a coalition has been an integral part of politics since independence.

   We have short memories and so forget soon. Absence of consensus nearly caused us independence from colonialism at the time we eventually had it. Remember the date had to be postponed twice at the instance of the northern ruling class before a coalition saved us from reproach and shame. If Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe who led what was nearer to a national party, the National Council for Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) at the time didn’t agree to work with the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) a regional party and made the sacrifice of not going for the Prime Minister position,  which he left for the North and took up the ceremonial position of President, things may have gone from bad to worse. In the Second and Third Republics, we saw accords which by the way is the same as the coalition. 

  In 2014 we had another variant of working together by political players. The difference between the one above and the one currently receiving very wide attention is that in the earlier case parties came together, traded their identities to fuse into a new entity. They took along splinter groups of one or two parties. The current one is being built around personalities. In truth one figure towers far ahead of every other figure in terms of recruitment of his loyalties and that is Atiku Abubakar, a man with so much political sagacity and what Nigerians have come to know as “war chest”. Peter Obi is another man with huge political clout, but his forte isn’t in group organization, his strength is buried in the citizens who earnestly crave for a demographic change in the national leadership especially at the apex level.

   Coalition is a potent political tool no doubt. It is a strategy relevant in every clime. Most times opposition must pull strength together before they can defeat an incumbent. The reasons are obvious to warrant a repetition. But the route of coalition or alliance or even mergers are very difficult to ply because of interest and philosophical underpinnings that usually would be involved. 

   Basic requirements for successful formation of political parties are shared vision and like-mindedness. There are others but these stand out if success is to attend the venture, both before and after they win power. Many times, all over the world, coalitions begin well, with so much enthusiasm but fester away before the polls begin. The reason is that the divergences in the vision and expectations of the protagonists sometimes show up very early and shortly after they have won the election. 

   Differences would become an issue because what is involved is power, everyone including the illiterates do know after God in mightiness, the next is the man in the political space who wields political power. Power can reconfigure anything. This is why irrespective of the clime the fight for power is fierce and sometimes very deadly. 

   The rule of the ancient may have been watered down in manifest application but it is still very potent in its veiled form. So, even when strange bed fellows agree to a cause, it is a temporary way out to assuage  grievance, dislocations, undoing a common foe and promoting a hope they could be closer to their objective(s). But once there are signs that greater loss is probable, crisis brews and will explode leading to total collapse.

   None of the alliances we have experienced in the country since independence succeeded. The merger by APC succeeded because they met a President who wasn’t primed for our peculiar kind of politics. He had no political dexterity, he couldn’t see a build up and by the time it dawned on him what was coming, he allowed the course to flow and then threw in the surrender towel. Otherwise, APC wouldn’t have succeeded, at best they would have raised a crisis they would have been too much for them to bear.

  Now they succeeded but events have shown they weren’t ready to govern a unit. Take this truth if the Yoruba component of the alliance was given space it is highly probable things would have turned out far better for the party in power. The present they threw up had electoral value on the basis of a factor behind the stalling of progress in the development of the country. As a person he wasn’t there. He needed help which he couldn’t ask for. The consequence is national calamity. Lack of knowledge which many style incompetence, religion and ethnicity are great hindrances to sound development anywhere. Societies that relegate merit-driven system falter to their discomfort.

   Is the new coalition free from the past mistakes? It doesn’t look quite so. Political adventurism contains the following “intent, ambition and vision.” The preponderant one decides the face of what is finally placed on the table. The first two are negative variations and they dominate our political space and political actions. Our intents are oftentimes not noble ones. 

   Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who missed being appointed a key figure in the ruling government has told us, “the North is suffering too much under this government, they want the power back, they can get it because they have the population.” We imagine if this position came from a South Easterner, he would have been banded a tribalist. This intent is narrow and not nationalist. He reached out to Atiku, former Vice President who was to be President as crowning glory. Not space to mention his forays many of which helped or brought destabilization. He pursued the “turn of his people” so vigorously at a time not so long. 

  That throws up issue of ambition. One of the potent forces for retardation in any polity is ambition. It is vision that binds and builds. One truth politicians wouldn’t want to tell so they look good is that the country is tensed up and the divide is becoming prominent once again. People in the South are beginning to ask if truly the country belongs to all. They can’t understand why the conservative section of the northern leaders would want to heckle every Southern leader that manages to find himself on the seat as President of Nigeria.

   MKO Abiola couldn’t make it despite winning one of the best conducted polls in the country. He died in the process. Those who raised Olusegun Obasanjo in the place of Abiola said he should serve “One term” and leave. Former President Goodluck Jonathan just told us a northern presidential aide had the effrontery to withhold a letter from ailing President Yar’Adua to the National Assembly empowering him to stand in as Acting President while the President took ill. President Jonathan was forced to sign a paper committing to serving a tenure and relinquishing office. Muhammadu Buhari in spite of his extreme poor performance had no such pressure. Bad administration was acceptable. Different strokes many say.

   Alliance is good but the calculations must grow from our peculiar experiences. The first would have been a paper detailing what is wrong and what difference they intend to bring. It would be nice to know what they think about restructuring, new constitution, fiscal federalism, creation of one or two more states and national ideology. Do we have full scale capitalism or welfare state? State policing, secularism, parliament , Judiciary reforms. The next most important would have been a platform possibly an entirely new political party. This way they sidetrack shoves and pushes that would certainly come. Pursuing electoral reform would have been a priority. And of course citizens mobilization and outsourcing of positions.

   The omissions are responsible for the jerkings we have seen so far about the efforts and divergent tones coming through from leaders of the coalition. Peter Obi is the coalition’s best bet. What they decide to do with him would determine how far they will go. This is The Plain Truth!