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Prominent British government scientific adviser Professor Neil Ferguson has warned that Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers could rise again even though lockdowns are “unlikely” to be needed to control the pandemic in the UK in future.
In a wide-ranging interview with The Times, Prof Ferguson said there would still likely be higher numbers of deaths each year than before as the world learns to live with the new disease, much like deaths are caused by the flu each winter.
He also expressed sympathy for Matt Hancock over the affair that ended his tenure as Health Minister, rather than calling him a hypocrite for his criticism when Prof Ferguson’s own private life was subjected to scrutiny after a visit from his girlfriend that broke social distancing rules.
Prof Ferguson, who stepped back from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) following that incident in May last year but remains on other Government advisory committees, said it was “unlikely we will need a new lockdown or even social distancing measures of the type we’ve had so far”, though that could change if the virus “changes substantially”.
He said as social contacts increased, Britain could “reach another point where we start seeing increasing case numbers again”, though at least vaccines had “changed the relationship between cases and hospitalisation”.
Overall, he said the UK, like elsewhere, would likely have to accept the continuing presence of Covid-19 as a potentially lethal threat, saying: “I suspect for several years, we will see additional mortality. There’s a risk in the winter coming of thousands to tens of
M nm more deaths.”
Prof Ferguson said had Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered the first lockdown a week earlier than he had in March last year, Britain’s first wave would have been been reduced by half and “maybe … by three quarters”, saving 25,000 lives.
He said he understood the reluctance at that point, amid uncertain modelling of the disease, to shut down the economy.
But he was less forgiving for the delay in locking down in the autumn, noting two-third of deaths in UK from Covid had happened after November 1.
The Imperial College immunologist said “the idea that there was a trade-off between public health and the economy took hold in some elements of the political establishment”, but countries that had implemented measures earlier in the autumn had been able to lift them sooner.
Mr Hancock had said he was “speechless” when news of Prof Ferguson’s girlfriend’s visit broke – criticism the scientist found “unnecessary”, since he had already stepped down from Sage.
When Mr Hancock’s own private life exploded into the media this year over the affair with an aide that led to him stepping down as Health Minister, Prof Ferguson said he did not join in allegations of hypocrisy towards the politician.
“Actually no, I didn’t. I felt very sorry for everybody involved. Being in the centre of that sort of media storm is horrific, even if there is reason for it,” he told the newspaper.
The immunologist added that while Mr Hancock had lost his job, his own day-to-day life “didn’t actually change very much” after his scandal last year, which he admits was a mistake.
“I just don’t think I was thinking,” he said. “I was working 18 hours a day and it hadn’t properly dawned on me that I was a public figure in that way.” (dpa/NAN)
