By Suleiman Dan-Musa

This Saturday, November 11, 2023, Kogi voters will file out to elect a new governor that will take over the Lugard’s House, the seat of power from the incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello, whose tenure will elapse on January 27, 2024. The electorate will vote at the 2,548 polling units spread across 239 wards in 21 local government areas of the state.

At the moment, there is apprehension in the state as residents brace for a three-horse race election, among the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP). There are 18 candidates quite alright, including a woman, Suleiman Fatima of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), but political pundits rate higher the candidates of APC, Usman Ododo; PDP, Dino Melaye and SDP, Murtala Ajaka, as the three top contenders, in that order.

Barrister Okeme of the Labour Party (LP) and Hamza Mohammed, his running mate with their “Kogi restructuring agenda,” have not made great in-roads politically, despite the traction LP made in the last presidential election. Also, Leke Abejide, candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), who has equally run a good political campaign, does not make great impact beyond his constituency, as to change the permutation.

The candidates are drawing strength from the senatorial districts they come from, with multiple candidates in some areas, like Kogi East and Kogi West, but one sole candidate from Kogi Central. This is one of the factors that will eventually determine the winner.

Of the total of 1,932,654 voters registered for the poll, 51 per cent of them are in Kogi East Senatorial District. The district has nine of the 21 local government areas of the state. These are Idah, Ibaji, Igalamela/Odolu, Ofu, Dekina, Ankpa, Olamaboro, Basa and Omala local governments.

Ajaka of SDP is from this district, in Igalamela LGA. However, there is a bitter rivalry between the SDP and the APC in the area. Analysts have traced the roots to the post-party primary defection of Ajaka from the APC, where he was a national official.

In this senatorial district, the SDP makes the highest noise, but the party and supporters have failed to do their homework. From their comments and disposition, the SDP candidate has alienated other tribes. Comments like, “we are fighting a common enemy” has made other zones to lose interest in the aspiration of the SDP candidate.

The woes of SDP in Igala land is compounded by former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Usman Jibrin (retd), who is the Accord Party candidate. The former naval chief seems to have more following, especially at the grassroots and with the elite. He is going on strongly, which reduces the SDP strength.

Former federal lawmaker, Senator Melaye is from Kogi West, which covers seven local government areas, including: Kaba Bunu, Kogi/Koto Karfe and Mopa Muro, Ijumu, Yagba East, Yagba West and Lokoja.

Kogi West is the only senatorial district yet to produce a governor for the 32-year-old state. The PDP candidate, and his ADC counterpart, Leke Abejide, are from this district.It is believed that they will split votes in the zone, which would make them cancel each other. The possibility of them striking a deal for the sole support of one of them is remote.

Here, the PDP appears depleted. Most of the political big wigs and key stakeholders are in APC. Also, many of the governorship aspirants had decamped to the APC with their supporters, including party exco members.

It is obvious that the crisis in the PDP, post primary, was not well managed. The choice of candidate has not gone down well with many party members and no solid effort was made to appease them.

The ADC candidate, from the zone, is giving PDP a tough time, but there is no serious threat to APC. He had won House of Reps election twice, but his strength lies in his constituency. For governorship, he doesn’t appear to have the spread and structure, as strong ADC members, who were with him during his House of Reps struggle, have all moved en bloc to the APC, including their exco members. The movement of the former Deputy Governor of the state, Arc Yomi Awoniyi, into the APC is a big plus for the ruling party.

Kogi Central Senatorial District has the fewest local government areas – Adavi, Ajaokuta, Okehi, Okene, and Ogori-Magongo – but monolith The ruling party’s candidate, Adodo, is from the Okene district and being an anointed candidate of the ruling party, it is expected that APC will use all available political arsenal at its disposal to make things happen in his favour.

By the setting, Kogi Central seems to be a no-go area for the opposition now, considering the fact that only one candidate out of the 18 in the race is from there and he is the APC candidate. The zone also wants to retain power after Governor Bello.

One of the things that gives APC strength in Kogi is the political weight of its members. The DG of the APC Governorship Campaign, who is the Minister of Steel Development, Shaibu Abubakar Audu, is strong in Kogi East. From their activities, his father’s loyalists and the family are genuinely with the APC in the struggle. The Deputy Governor, who was in the race for governorship, is also rooting for Ododo and APC strongly, despite initial talks that he may not be happy.

The APC good fortune is that it is harvesting big wigs from the opposition parties, daily, including former senators and former governors from the East. The son of Ibrahim Idris also defected to APC recently, just like former appointees of ex-Gov Wada and his deputy.

In the guber election, all eyes are on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The question is whether a free, fair, credible election that is violence-free, as equally enshrined in the African Union Instruments on Democracy, Elections and Good Governance, could be enthroned in the state election. While nobody can say for sure what would happen, the fear of violence is overwhelming. This has always caused voter apathy.

Looking at previous elections, voters are continuously shunning the polls in the state. In the 2011 governorship election, the state had 1.33 million registered voters, but on election day, only 518,949 persons voted, representing a lowly 39 per cent voter turnout.

The number of registered voters increased by four per cent from 1.33 million to 1.38 million in 2015. However, there was also a declined in the turnout.

Registered voters for the 2019 election stood at 1.65 million, a 19 per cent increase from the previous election, but more than a million among those who registered did not vote. Only 624, 514 voters exercised their franchise, representing 38 per cent voter turnout.

In the 2023 general election, voter turnout dropped to 25 per cent in the state. Out of 1.65 million registered voters, only 476,038 voted.

All things considered, the Kogi governorship election may look tough because of the ethnic dimension, but the power of incumbency looks strong in favour of APC. Gov Bello is deploying everything to retain the state for APC. What works for him appears to be the ability to hold Kogi Central for Ododo, while using everything to weaken the strength of the opponents in Kogi East and Kogi West.

With a block vote in Central, and ability to get 25 per cent in Kogi East and Kogi West, the APC Ododo looks good to carry the day.

• Dan-Musa writes from Lokoja.