AS state-to-state campaign rallies wind down next week with the Presidential candidates making their final arguments to voters, the defining moment has come in what is obviously the most consequential presidential election in Nigeria. The Feb 25 election will be like no other before it. It must be said that Nigerians are not aberrational, defeatist, ungenerous or lacking in any of the qualities of citizenship, patriotism or humanity on which they have prided themselves. In fact, their hopes are modest, their fears are rational. However, today, we have a nation whose citizens have become disillusioned and completely cynical about the performance of its political leaders and institutions. And those attitudes, the disillusionment and suspicion about the performance of our government at all levels and institutions are well-founded. Truth is, Nigerians no longer trust government anymore. They believe the government does not care about them. This has resulted in doubts about our collective future. It has led to citizens’ erosion of confidence in the future. This is threatening to destroy both the social and and political fabric of the country. It’s grim and despairing. You see, these doubts have been accumulating for years. It’s just that it has reached a tipping point now. That is why, in the words of elder statesman and leader of Afenifere Chief Ayo Adebanjo, “if we miss this opportunity to elect the right person as President, forget about Nigeria”. He has been consistent on this, and his latest admonition came last Saturday at the mega campaign rally in Lagos organised by the Labour Party Presidential Council for its candidate, Peter Obi and his running mate, Yusuf Baba-Ahmed. There is no doubt that Nigeria is in deep and serious trouble. Only good leadership will rescue Nigeria from this deep hole. Many years ago, James Sundquist, an American author and resident scholar at Brookings Institution in his book titled: “SETTING NATIONAL PRIORITIES’, wrote that if people are to take the trouble to vote, they must expect something from the leaders they choose… At a minimum, they want a programme that will address the central problems that concern them, not necessarily one with all the answers, but at least one with a philosophy and approach that give promise of succeeding”. Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party Presidential candidate, more than any other candidate, has set the public agenda for the presidential campaign. He has been arguing -articulatively and emphatically -the need to cut the size, scope and spending of government, and fix a broken country. The two other presidential candidates are busy throwing fake news, tantrums at each other and playing catch up. The APC candidate has not shown any modicum of good leadership in this campaign.
But the biggest worry of the presidential election is the possible outcome and reaction. That’s where I smell trouble. What, for instance, will happen if Peter Obi is declared the winner of Feb 25 Presidential election as many polls have predicted he can? What, if Bola Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP lose the election’? Will an Atiku or Tinubu victory not trigger unrest in the country? Put differently, what, if, per chance, a “sick country is handed over to a sick man”? It’s important at this point for the relevant security agencies to begin to weigh these scenarios and prepare for emergency response to curb electoral violence. One is worried that the desperation in the APC camp presents a present danger if their candidate loses the election. The atmosphere is tense. The attack last Saturday on the supporters of the Labour Party Presidential candidate, in which tens of its faithful sustained serious injuries, some hospitalised is a warning signal of what might happen during and post-election. Why did the APC launch what it calls “the Jagaban Army? Is this a preparation for ‘war’. What’s happening in Lagos and elsewhere, is aberrational. Things are getting out of hand. People may resort to self help. It’s an affront to the Nigerian Armed Forces. And it’s a treasonable offence to have in place a militia group when the Armed Forces, including the Police are still in place? Beyond that, threats and intimidation against other parties in Lagos, have also raised the alarm bells. Over the weekend, a recorded video of the traditional ruler(Baale) in Eti-Osa local government Area, Lagos, went viral. In the video, he was heard threatening residents of the community that they must vote for the APC presidential candidate or incur his wrath . He said he wanted to know how many of the residents who attended the meeting he called, have their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). Though the Lagos Police Command has assured it will invite the traditional ruler for questioning over the matter, it’s unclear if the Baale has been invited . Similar thing happened in Ebonyi state last December, when the Chairman of the state Traditional Rulers Council, Chief Charles Mkpuma reportedly placed a curse on any individual who challenges Gov David Umahi in the Ebonyi South Senatorial district contest. Can you imagine that! A curse? In recent months, we have seen the emergence of democratic despots in some states of the country.
But by far, the gravest concern we should worry about is what could happen if the will of the Nigerian electorate is scuttled in the forthcoming elections, in particular the presidential poll. That’s exactly the point Mr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, the Director of Publicity and Advocacy of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) drew our attention to recently. He said the “concerns are deep and genuine”. He says the nation is beginning to hear “worrying rumours about the likely consequences of certain candidates losing the election. He claims that “an Atiku or Tinubu victory could trigger some unrest in parts of the country”. He also argued that a Peter Obi victory “is likely to create massive post-election political instability”. Besides, Hakeem, who is the elder brother of Obi’s running mate, further argues that even a run-off in the presidential election could put the nation’s already precarious peace and security situation in jeopardy. Equally disturbing is the allegation by Femi Fani-Kayode that Atiku met with some top military officers to scuttle the election, and stage a coup. This is a serious allegation that deserves his immediate arrest to substantiate his claim. With poverty, unemployment, inflation and cost of living at all-time high, the country is sitting on a tinderbox. All of this is a frightening scenario. What option then do we have? Again, I smell danger if things are not properly addressed and managed to protect the electoral process and the votes. I am also not at ease with the recent position of Pa Adebanjo, when he said that if Obi does not become president in the Feb 25 poll, “forget about Nigeria”. This kind of over the top comment capable of heightening tension , something I know, Mr Peter Obi is strongly opposed to. Obi has been consistent with where he stands in this election. “I will rather lose doing the right thing than win doing the wrong thing”, he said at the beginning of the campaign. None of the presidential candidates has spoken genuinely and fervently about fixing a broken country as Obi has done in this campaign. His message resonates in our hearts and minds, with everyone, except those who have impoverished Nigeria, and still want to continue to bend others to their will to acquire power at all cost.
Obi’s words on the marble are things to ponder over as we prepare to go to the polls. The picture of the young lad who stood in front of his convoy in Lagos last Saturday, with hands stretched, captures hope amid despair. It underlines what Obi has been talking about on the campaign trail. He has also said that: “hunger takes people to the street, Jobs and food will obviously take them out of crime. That’s my specialty, creating jobs and wealth”. He also says that he has not come out for this election for himself. “I have come for the millions of youths who are losing hope in our beloved country…I have come out for the poor who are asking whether it’s a sin to be a Nigerian. For them, I have come… The battle for the rescue of the soul of Nigeria has just begun, and all should be contributive and participative in it”. These are noble words from a politician who is seeking presidential power for great purposes. It’s the stuff of good leadership. The security authorities should invite for questioning all those who are fanning the embers of violence.
Their aim is to scuttle our democracy. It’s unfortunate that our political leaders are not setting good example for their supporters to follow. ‘A la carte approach’ to winning election is intellectually incoherent and anti-democratic . Power should come from the people. Political leaders should emulate former President Goodluck Jonathan who was very tolerant of opposition parties. He allowed a smooth transition. As Jonathan nobly noted in his memoir, “My Transition Hour”, “Democracy is not just about fulfilling all righteousness by treating people to the ballot box that you bring only on Election Day. Democracy boils to legitimacy and ensuring that people have the necessary dividends. Elections must offer valid choices”. These elections should not confirm our fears.