• Why all eyes are on Lagos, Oyo, Rivers, Kano, Abia, Enugu
By Tunde Thomas
Following the conclusion of the Presidential/National Assembly Elections which took place across the country on February 25, 2023, Nigerians will again go to the poll on Saturday, March 18, 2023, to elect their governors and members of the state assemblies.
The election was initially scheduled for last weekend, but the Independent National Electoral on Wednesday March 8 announced that the election had been rescheduled.
The outcome of the Presidential/National Assembly elections has continued to be the subject of debate among Nigerians. But the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC) had issued certificates of returns to winners, while the aggrieved candidates are already raising legal teams to challenge the results of the election
The governorship elections will not hold in eight states. These are Osun, Ekiti, Anambra, Ondo, Edo, Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi. The reason for this is that these states have had their election in what has been described as off-cycle periods.
Their election dates had to change from the normal election cycle because of various court judgments which had altered the dates of the tenure of their past governors. So while state assembly elections will hold in the 36 states of the federation, only 28 states will conduct governorship elections.
As the nation goes into the election today, some incumbent state governors and the ruling party in some states are not feeling comfortable.
The reason for this is the unexpected results that trailed the Presidential and National Assembly elections conducted two weeks ago in their states.
The results of the first elections held on February 25 led to upsets in many states. States that were seen as traditional states to some parties recorded upsets during the polls, and there are fears among ruling parties and top politicians that such upsets might be recorded today.
LAGOS
For the first time since 1999 in Lagos, the ruling party, the APC was beaten to the second position by the Labour Party, (LP) during the Presidential elections.
What made the Labour Party’s victory in the presidential election a great upset was that the Godfather of Lagos politics; the two-term governor of Lagos State and the one who has been instrumental in picking those that contested and won the governorship elections in the state since 2007 when he left office, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was on the ballot.
In the result of the Presidential election, Labour Party’s candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, recorded the highest numbers in Lagos State where he scored 582,454 against Tinubu’s 572,606 votes.
The victory of the LP in the hitherto strongholds of APC like Ikeja and Alimosho and some other parts of the state is already causing unease for the APC and the state government. The governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu has since been reaching out to several individuals, groups, and organisations in order to retain his seat.
The Labour Party Governorship Candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes – Vivour has been exuding confidence in winning the governorship election. Political analysts and observers are of the opinion that Lagos may be one of the states to watch out for in today’s election.
NASARAWA
Nasarawa State where the incumbent Governor, Abdullahi Sule is an APC member and the home state of the National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu was won by the Labour Party in the last presidential election.
In the results announced by INEC, APC scored 172, 922 as against the LP which scored 191,361 votes. The PDP came third with 147, 093 votes.
So the Labour Party is a good contender for the governorship seat and Governor Sule is sitting on the hot seat as regards his ambition to secure a second term in office.
PLATEAU
The same upset was recorded in Plateau state, which is another APC state with Governor Simon Lalong who is on his second and final term also being the Director General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council. The State fell to Labour Party as Mr. Peter Obi scored 466, 272 votes while Tinubu got 307, 195 votes, and the PDP and its presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar scored 243, 808 votes.
The Labour Party Governorship candidate, Dr. Patrick Dakum, believes the winning streak of his party in the presidential election in the state would give him victory, but the PDP candidate, Barrister Caleb Mutsfwang, is hopeful on the agreement reached by PDP leaders in the state that while they vote for Obi, the LP presidential candidate in last Saturday’s election, the PDP would be voted for in the governorship poll. Dr. Nentawe Yilwatda, the gubernatorial candidate of the APC will be fighting to retain the state for the party.
ABIA, ENUGU
The five South Eastern states which had been the stronghold of the PDP were won by the Labour Party during the presidential elections.
Obi recorded a landslide victory in Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Imo, and Ebonyi
This is understandable because the LP Presidential candidate hails from Anambra State and the people of the region had adopted him as their presidential candidate.
Also, the incumbent Governor of Enugu State, Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, and his Abia State counterpart, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu contested and lost their senatorial elections. So in the governorship election coming up today, there is the possibility of an upset if the people decide to vote the way they did on February 25. The two states have been traditional PDP states.
DELTA
Delta State which had been under the control of the PDP since 1999 was won by the Labour Party in the last Presidential election.
Delta’s result was more shocking because Ifeanyi Okowa, who is the incumbent governor, is also the Vice Presidential Candidate of the PDP.
The performance of Obi in the presidential election has put the party in a tough contest with the PDP and APC.
Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege is the governorship candidate of the APC, while Speaker, Delta House of Assembly, Sheriff Oborevwori is the PDP candidate. Ken Pela, is the LP flag-bearer.
However, some PDP stakeholders who supported the LP in the presidential election because of their dislike for Governor Ifeanyi Okowa are however closing ranks to save the party from another humiliation in the poll.
The contest in Delta State is close to calling, as any of the LP, PDP, and APC may win the state Governorship election
OYO
Another result from the presidential election which may shape today’s election is that of Oyo State. Oyo State which is being ruled by the PDP lost the Presidential election to the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. PDP also lost the three Senatorial seats in the state to the rival APC as well as the majority of the House of Representatives slots.
That result has buoyed the confidence of APC and is causing disillusionment in the ranks of PDP who believe the party was sold to Tinubu by the governor.
It was gathered that Makinde’s declared support for Tinubu when the latter paid him a courtesy visit during electioneering, is making him face the battle of his life for a second term in office. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State is one of the G-5 governors of the PDP who vowed not to support the PDP presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
CROSS RIVER
This is another APC state that fell into the hands of the Labour Party in the presidential election. In contention for the governorship seat in the state is Senator Bassey Otu of the APC, Professor Sandy Eno of the PDP and Ernest Jose, of the LP. Peter Obi’s victory in the Presidential election in the state has put the Labour Party in strong contention.
RIVERS
Though a traditional PDP state, it was the APC that trounced other parties in Rivers during the Presidential election to hand victory to the APC Presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu. But the battle today is between the PDP candidate, Siminalayi Fubara, and the APC candidate, Tonye Cole. But some have said the PDP remains strong in the state, owing to the support and influence of Governor Nyesom Wike.
KADUNA
The situation in Kaduna State is said to have been giving sleeplessness to the ruling party in the State as the PDP won the state in the last presidential election. In the election, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP defeated the Labour Party and the APC which is the ruling party.
The incumbent Governor, Mallam Nasir Nasir el-Rufai is reported to be worried because of the result and the fear of handing over to a successor from the PDP.
The two top contenders in the governorship election in Kaduna State are the APC candidate, Senator Uba Sani, and PDP’s Isah Ashiru. The Labour Party may however have a little chance because the LP Vice Presidential Candidate, Baba Datti- Ahmed is from Kaduna State.
KANO
New Nigeria People’s Party, (NNPP) led by Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso has proved his hold on Kano State. In the last presidential election, Kwankwaso won the state overwhelmingly and put the ruling APC in second position.
The governorship election in Kano State will be a close contest between the NNPP and the ruling APC. It is yet another battleground state and an upset may be produced
BENUE
There might also be an upset in Benue State. Benue State is currently being ruled by the PDP. However, Governor Samuel Ortom is one of the G5 Governors that are aggrieved and failed to support the presidential candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the presidential elections. Ortom openly announced his support for LP candidate, Obi. In the elections, the APC triumphed over APC and the Labour Party.
Tinubu, the APC candidate secured 310,468; Obi of LP scored 308, 372 while Atiku of the PDP scored 130,081. Governor Ortom also lost the senatorial election in the National Assembly elections.