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The National Economic Council (NEC) recently approved a new economic development blueprint dubbed “Nigeria Agenda 2050.” This was the outcome of the first Council meeting chaired by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo in Abuja, this year. The plan is expected to increase the nation’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), create about 165 million new jobs and reduce the number of people living in poverty in the next 27 years.
Currently, Nigeria has about 133 million people categorized to be multi-dimensionally poor. This represents about 63 per cent of the total population of the country put at over 200 million. Under the new development agenda, Nigeria will achieve an annual average GDP growth of 7 per cent. At present, Nigeria’s annual GDP growth is below 3.5 per cent.
In addition, the plan envisages Nigeria’s long-term ambition to improve per capita GDP from US$2,084.05 to US$6,223.23 in 2030, and US$33,328.02 in 2050, with a rapid and sustained economic growth that will witness phenomenal job opportunities and poverty reduction across board.
The 2050 Development Plan has been formulated against the backdrop of several subsisting development plans – all targeting to tackle Nigeria’s development challenges and propel the country for the future. These challenges include low, fragile and non-inclusive economic growth, high population growth rate, rising insecurity and national debt, limited diversification, macroeconomic and social instability, low productivity and high import dependence.
To tackle these challenges, a Steering Committee has been set up to provide the necessary policy guidance and leadership for effective and successful implementation. This came about 14 months after President Muhammadu Buhari unveiled a similar short-term National Development Plan on December 22, 2021.
The new economic agenda is laudable but ambitious. We are of the view that the lofty objectives will be hard to achieve. Moreover, any vision that will serve as a vehicle for economic growth and development must first tackle the problems that may hamper its success. It is apparent that the new agenda may not work. The plan is constrained by a plethora of economic and political challenges. These include structural reform issues, inadequate infrastructure, tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, obstacles to investment, lack of confidence in currency valuation, as well as foreign exchange instability. Corruption in government and lack of collaboration among the agencies, constraints in the financial system and other factors may likely vitiate the plan. There are also other issues that could hinder the new economic agenda. There is currently a huge productivity gap in the extent to which plans need to succeed. Productivity must be mainstreamed into every conceivable development plan to actualise growth. There is little or no emphasis on critical areas such as education, research and competitiveness.
For the new development agenda to achieve its target goals, there must be clear demonstration of ability to build a sound and strong intellectual property system that will harness the nation’s resources and capabilities, as well as develop the necessary skills and apply innovative and inventive strategies that will strengthen economic activities such as the establishment and sustenance of small businesses, hub centres and technology parks for sustainable economic development and growth.
It is one thing to initiate a brilliant and forward-looking development plan, it is another thing to walk the talk. This can probably explain why President Buhari was unable to fulfill his 2019 promise to lift about 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2030. Since then, Nigeria has become the poverty capital of the world. Data from the world poverty clock shows that Nigeria has had steady rise in the poverty index.
According to the data, from 2016 till date, about 14.8 million Nigerians have been pushed into poverty, and over 6.5 million people below the poverty line in 2020. On the whole, Nigeria ranks as the highest in terms of people who have been pushed into extreme poverty in Africa. Therefore, for Nigeria Agenda 2050 to succeed, it needs to be reviewed and reworked in line with present realities. Our macroeconomic, investment, trade and industrial policies need urgent reforms that will be factored into the plan.
The economy must be retooled from the present consumption-based economy to production-driven economy that will be able to produce the bulk of the goods and services for domestic consumption and export, while diversification should be prioritised. At the same time, the business and political environment must be such that will attract foreign direct investments.
