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A new Economic Snapshot Report released by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has revealed that three years after President Bola Tinubu assumed office, Nigeria’s economy has moved from crisis management to a phase of gradual stabilisation, driven by sweeping reforms including the removal of fuel subsidy, foreign exchange unification, tax reforms and renewed investments in infrastructure.
The report, which compares key economic indicators between May 2023 and mid-2026, argues that while the economy has made measurable progress across several sectors, challenges remain, particularly in boosting the tax-to-GDP ratio, reducing the burden of debt servicing and tackling Nigeria’s out-of-school children crisis. According to the report, the Tinubu administration inherited an economy weighed down by four major structural problems: an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, a fragmented foreign exchange market, weak crude oil production and an underperforming tax administration system.
It noted that the immediate removal of fuel subsidy and unification of the exchange rate became the foundation upon which subsequent economic improvements were built.
The report highlighted improvements in several macroeconomic indicators, noting that annual GDP growth rose from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.89 per cent by 2025, while headline inflation declined to 15.9 per cent in 2026 after peaking at 34.8 per cent in late 2024.
External reserves also climbed from an unencumbered $3.99 billion in 2023 to $50.11 billion by June 2026, the highest level in 17 years, while Nigeria’s balance of payments moved from a deficit of $3.34 billion to a surplus of $2.38 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Despite these gains, the report acknowledged that inflation has shown signs of renewed pressure in recent months, attributing the uptick largely to fuel price increases triggered by the Middle East supply disruption in March 2026.
On public debt, the report said Nigeria’s total debt stock rose in naira terms from N87.4 trillion to N159.28 trillion, largely because of exchange rate adjustments rather than excessive fresh borrowing.
More significantly, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent to 32.3 per cent, marking what the report described as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade. It also pointed to stronger investor confidence, evidenced by Nigeria’s heavily oversubscribed Eurobond issuance in November 2025.
NRS_Economic_Snapshot_Report-2-1.pdf
The oil sector also recorded significant recovery. Crude oil and condensate production increased from about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.9 million barrels daily by May 2026, exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC production quota. The report attributed the improvement to intensified efforts against oil theft, pipeline vandalism and implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry also witnessed a major turnaround.
Domestic refining capacity expanded from just 30,000 barrels per day to about 700,000 barrels daily, enabling roughly 90 per cent of the country’s petrol needs to be met locally.
The report noted that Nigeria recorded its first-ever net petrol export in March 2026, describing the development as one of the most consequential economic shifts since the current administration came into office. The country’s external trade also strengthened considerably.
Trade surplus increased from just ₦44.7 billion in 2023 to ₦7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, supported by rising refined petroleum exports and reduced fuel imports.
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Foreign capital inflows similarly surged from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while diaspora remittances climbed to $23 billion following reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The report also highlighted remarkable growth in the solid minerals sector, where revenues rose from about ₦16 billion before the reforms to over ₦70 billion in 2025.
It attributed the increase to the revocation of inactive mining licences, stricter enforcement, digitisation of licensing processes and the transfer of royalty collection responsibilities to the Nigeria Revenue Service.
In agriculture, government spending increased substantially following the declaration of a state of emergency on food security in 2023.
Budgetary allocation to agriculture rose from ₦228.4 billion in 2023 to ₦826.5 billion in 2025, alongside fertiliser distribution programmes, mechanisation initiatives and strategic grain releases aimed at improving food production and moderating food prices. Infrastructure development also gathered momentum through the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Development Fund, with over ₦15 trillion worth of new road projects approved across 15 states and innovative financing models designed to attract private investment into public infrastructure.
The report further cited progress under the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative, revealing that more than 100,000 vehicles have been converted to CNG, over $2 billion in investments mobilised and more than 10,000 jobs created as the government seeks to reduce transport costs and dependence on imported fuels.
On revenue generation, the NRS reported significant growth in tax collections, rising from ₦12.3 trillion in 2023 to ₦28.3 trillion in 2025, with ₦21.6 trillion already collected in the first half of 2026.
Non-oil revenue now accounts for 76 per cent of total collections, while the tax-to-GDP ratio has improved to 13 per cent.
The report credited digital tax systems, new tax laws, the transition from the Federal Inland Revenue Service to the Nigeria Revenue Service and Executive Order 9 for boosting collections and reducing leakages in government revenue.
However, the report stressed that the tax-to-GDP ratio remains below the government’s target of 18 per cent and should remain a priority over the coming years.
On the social front, the report noted only modest progress in reducing the number of out-of-school children, with the figure falling from about 20 million in 2023 to between 18.3 million and 18.5 million.
It blamed the slow pace partly on states’ inability to access over ₦97 billion in Universal Basic Education Commission matching grants because many could not provide counterpart funding or meet administrative requirements.
The NRS recommended real-time revenue reporting, a dedicated tax framework for the emerging CNG economy, stronger monitoring of capital flows, legislation to entrench Executive Order 9 and reforms to enable automatic deduction of states’ counterpart funding for UBEC projects.
The report concluded that while Nigeria’s economy has made significant progress since 2023, sustaining the gains will require deeper reforms, stronger revenue mobilisation and continued efforts to address remaining structural weaknesses.
