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Nigeria’s economy is projected to record stronger macroeconomic performance in 2026, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected to grow by 5.55 per cent, according to the latest CountryWatch Nigeria 2026 Edition released by Economic Associates (EA) and Proshare Nigeria.
The report, which provides a data-driven macroeconomic outlook across key economic indicators, also forecasts inflation to moderate to 6.57 per cent by December 2026, while Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves are projected to remain between $51.5 billion and $60 billion. The NGX All-Share Index is also expected to rise to 249,000 points, reflecting positive investor sentiment in the capital market.
Released in Lagos, the report represents the second edition of the institutional macroeconomic surveillance series jointly produced by EA and Proshare, designed to provide evidence-based economic intelligence for policymakers, investors, and risk analysts.
Speaking on the report’s purpose, Dr. Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, said the publication was designed to provide deeper analytical insights beyond headline data. “The data establishes that Nigeria has moved through three distinct macroeconomic phases since 2020. Recovery is measurable. Risks are identifiable. The outlook is structured. This is the standard to which institutional research on Nigeria should be held,” he said.
He explained that the series was created to address gaps in domestic macroeconomic research, adding that many international reports lack granular local economic insights. “CountryWatch Nigeria was designed to meet that standard,” he added.
The report analysed Nigeria’s economic performance across three key analytical clusters — price stability, market liquidity, and output growth — using a twelve-indicator model covering economic activity between 2020 and 2025, with forward projections for 2026.
On price stability, the report noted that exchange rate reforms and monetary tightening helped stabilise the naira. Nigeria’s FX premium narrowed from 25 per cent to 5 per cent, while net foreign reserves recovered significantly. “Exchange rate stabilisation and appreciation were the primary drivers of inflation moderation,” the report stated.
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Inflation is projected to decelerate further, supported by sustained positive real interest rates. The 91-day Treasury bill real rate is projected at 4.01 per cent, supporting investment returns in local currency instruments.
On market liquidity, the report noted strong capital market performance, with total financial market issuance rising nearly four times in 2025 to about $69 billion. “Domestic and external liquidity growth has strengthened investor confidence in Nigerian assets,” the report said.
Output growth is also expected to remain positive. Nigeria’s dollar GDP is projected to rise to $359.78 billion in 2026, following improvements in sectoral productivity. Forty-two of 46 economic sectors recorded expansion in 2025.
However, the report warned of key risks including global commodity shocks, capital flow volatility, pre-election fiscal pressures, security challenges, and possible tax policy misalignment.
Olufemi Awoyemi, Founder and Chairman of Proshare Nigeria, said the research provides institutional investors with reliable economic intelligence. “The CountryWatch Nigeria series exists because institutional capital allocation demands more than sentiment and headlines. Our 2026 projections are evidence-based,” he said.
He added that Nigeria’s recovery trajectory is tied to sustaining market-oriented reforms. “These are structural gains, not seasonal adjustments,” he said.
The report concluded that continued policy consistency, infrastructure investment, and financial market deepening would be critical to sustaining Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability in 2026.
