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The cascading down of democratization across Africa made a resurgence of coups almost unthinkable. However, in 2020s, the odious number of successful coups reached a worrisome level. Andrews Atta-Asamoah of Institute for Security Studies, categorized the coups into ‘three waves.’
The first wave of coups, which occurred between 1960s and 1970s, were targeted at upstaging nationalists involved in independence struggles, and who refused to kowtow to the biddings of imperialist powers. The legitimacy crisis created by their scant level up to the expectations of their citizens emboldened the war of attrition against them. The coups were led by senior military officers.
The second wave, which he located between 1990 and 2021 focused on uprooting military leaders who pigeon-holed attempts towards restoration of democratic rule. The executors, made up of mid-level military officers justified the putsch with promises of better living standards for their citizens. The motivation for the third wave of coups, which began in 2021 were “manipulation of national constitutions for presidential term extensions, rigged elections, deteriorating security and a rising anti-colonial sentiment.” Instructively, apart from Sudan, Chad and Gabon that witnessed coups between 2021 and 2023, the four other countries (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger) implicated in this third wave are not only French-speaking, but also belong to ECOWAS bloc.
As a matter of fact, the 15-Member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was birthed in 1975. The group emerged to foster economic co-operation among member-states, but over time, it became necessary to revise and expand its scope and powers to accommodate interventions in compelling political and security situations. There are three official languages in ECOWAS – English, French and Portuguese. The English-speaking member-states are: Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, The Gambia and Sierra Leone. The French-speaking member-states includes: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo, while the two Portuguese-speaking members are Cabo Verde and Guinea Bissau.
Beyond the pivotal role of economic integration, Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS evolved as building blocks of African Union’s programmes in the broad areas of peace and security, as well as development and governance. But, whether ECOWAS has fulfilled the mandate is a varied conjecture. The triggers of forceful regime change in the four ECOWAS countries are scarcely absent in the other countries of the sub region. It was no surprise that the sanctions against Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger by ECOWAS were a mere paper tiger. Guinea had worked out a transition timetable with ECOWAS.
Although ECOWAS had in the past intervened in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire and lately, The Gambia, yet the escalation of insecurity by non-state actors and relative deprivations of majority of the people occasioned by poor governance have culminated in weakening the support for the sanctions, and raised the audacity to question the moral authority of the sub regional bloc. As such, a political analyst noted that “… ECOWAS has lost its beauty in the sense that the heads of state that populate them have questionable hold onto power.”
Besides, in September 2023, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed a defence pact – the Alliance of Sahel States (AES in French) after severing ties with G-5 Sahel. The joint force is to fight jihadist groups that had caused much horrors in Sahel since 2022. They also announced withdrawal from ECOWAS with effect from January 2024. Burkina Faso has also removed ECOWAS logo from its passport. Indeed, the sub regional bloc is pressured by new rivalries and emerging power centers driven by shared sentiments and shared challenges.
And in a last ditch effort aimed at countering what was termed “the irreversible rupture in ECOWAS”, it had to lift its sanctions on the three recalcitrant states. The volte-face by ECOWAS was a strategic pull back to remain relevant, and to woo the trio juntas that followed the step of Mauritania, which left the body in 2000. The reasons advanced by the President of ECOWAS Commission, Dr. Omar Touray, for their reinstatement, which are however face-saving, bordered on not wanting the three countries to lose out in the over 500 million dollars World Bank support for Sahel pastoralism, Sahel irrigation, and food systems resilient support, among others.
The knock-on effects of the sanctions were unbearable as they lacked bottom-up support. Member-states were imperiled too. In analyzing the effects on ECOWAS member-states, the European Center for Development and Policy Management (ECDPM) notes that Ghana imports close to $2 million worth of onions weekly from Niger. The Republic of Benin’s port of Cotonou is the gateway for over 70% trade in Niger, hence, about 6,000 trucks were stopped from crossing the border during the sanction. Besides, Nigeria loses the much needed forex from Niger’s electricity import, as well as the hard hit on border towns in northern Nigeria. Mali’s food insecurity exacerbated while Senegal was reluctant to enforce the sanction on Mali because of a possible loss of transit trade. In essence, the sanctions would have created another cycles of economic and humanitarian crises in the whole sub region, if not halted.
The size of the three countries notwithstanding, their resolve to call the bluff of ECOWAS and form a confederation is hinged on new-found foreign interests. Russia is cashing in on the disenchantment with former allies, security vacuum, and good governance gaps, to consolidate her foothold in the Sahel region. Since October 2023, Russia has signed a number of cooperation agreements with AES states in the areas of defense, nuclear and renewable energy, agriculture, communications, and mineral extraction. Indeed, the Sahel nay West Africa has entered a new dimension of scramble by the global irreconcilable competitors. More troubling is that some citizens of Nigeria hoisted Russian flags during the 10-day protests, amidst coup scare. The lifeline for ECOWAS is to cut to size the behemoth delusion and get member-states to commit to genuine democracy and good governance that empower the people. The people are the chief guardians of national interests. And Nigeria, whose sphere of influence is in great jeopardy, must get its acts right through exemplary leadership.
