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By Christopher Oji
Security expert, Mr. Matthew Ibadin, has called on President Bola Tinubu to play a fatherly role as the head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by choosing diplomatic means in handling the military putsch in Niger Republic, rather than resorting to military force on the Coupists.
Ibadin, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Badinson Security Limited, in a press conference, yesterday, in Lagos, urged the president to adopt the resolution of the 15 chiefs of defence staff of ECOWAS, who resolved in their two-day meeting that ended in Abuja on August 4, 2023, to seek diplomatic solutions to the illegal change of government in Niger, where the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, was ousted in a coup led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani.
Following the incident, ECOWAS heads of states and government, under the chairmanship of Nigeria’s President Tinubu, had given the coupists seven days to restore Bazoum to power or face sanctions and military action.
Days after the deadline elapsed, with the coupists entrenching themselves in power, Ibadin has reminded Tinubu of the consequences of ignoring what he called the “voice of reason” from concerned citizens, hinged on total abstinence from any semblance of war on Niger in an attempt to restore democracy.
Among other things, Ibadin, a certified private investigator and security consultant, noted that the defence chiefs, as military professionals, must have weighed the options of adopting a peaceful means or military approach in solving the Nigerien problem before they resolved to follow the path of diplomacy.
“It would, therefore, be a very wrong step for the president to insist on the use of force to restore democracy in Niger,” he argued.
As posited by some military analysts, any coup that has lasted up to 24 hours is already a success, as many stakeholders must have endorsed it. In this vein, Ibadin advised the Nigerian president not to allow pressure from the United Nations and other superpowers like the United States of America and France to mislead him into taking action that may precipitate a regional conflagration, particularly as some West Africa countries are already giving subtle support to the coupists in Niger, aside from the fact that they are Nigeria’s neighbours with longstanding bonds of brotherhood.
The security expert reminded the president that Nigeria as a country was “fragile” and not in the best shape to begin a war that could have an unpredictable end.
“A few days ago, insurgents resurfaced, shooting down an Air Force airplane in Niger State. And they are seriously vandalising our rail tracks presently. So, we should use our armed forces to protect the country’s infrastructure, instead of pushing them to war. I, therefore, want the president not to take action that might stoke the anger of even his political supporters against him, for over-indulgence in the Niger problem,” he said.
Ibadin also reminded the president that, since he does not have the constitutional power to declare war against another country without the approval of the National Assembly, he should exercise maximum restraint in that respect, even though he may want to pitch his actions within the premise of his chairmanship of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government.
“The coup in Niger is seen as a revolutionary government and that’s fair. They appear to be fighting against French domination in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, but they can’t be seen as attaining proper independence because they are swapping France for Russia, which, altogether, we are kicking against. We should be preaching more of brotherhood and unity and sense to understand that we own these resources. Let’s change the paradigm.
“Nigeria is somehow borderless on the side of the North. The border is extremely porous. So, going to war with someone you don’t have borders with, just imagine the effects, arms can come in from anywhere. The western world will take advantage of the situation to roast Nigerians.
“Is ECOWAS now representing French interests? Must it enter the war? These are questions we all need to understand. Why not negotiate with your brothers, instead of going to war with them? The spirit of the times is pro-independence. It is time to reawaken the pan-African spirit and kill slavery forever.”
Ibadin opined that this is the time to negotiate first before threats or military action. He advised that the president should travel to Niger and negotiate peace with the soldiers in power.
The negotiation should include a timeline for when they would hand over to democratic leaders, within six months, one year or two years. He explained that this is because any coup that lasted for more than 24 hours already succeeded. So it’s better to negotiate with them to leave power.
“Any form of protest cannot solve the problem, but one call from a reputable person, like an industrialist, a CEO who has global influence in Niger, someone like Aliko Dangote or other influential Africans, will resolve the issue and plan a way forward.
“If there is a war, it cannot happen overnight. Since there is a way to plan a war, there should be a way to plan a negotiation too. My generation does not understand this: how can Africa, which has so much wealth, become the poorest continent in the world today, and why do African leaders travel all over the world to beg?
“Until we address the socio-economic challenges in Africa, we make democracy less palatable. A hungry man is an angry man. If you check the pulse of the people of Niger, they are extremely happy with the coup.
“Now, let’s look at what really happened. The first root cause of the issue is uranium. Niger is the largest producer of uranium in the world, after Russia and Kazakhstan. Russia started a war with Ukraine. However, because they need Russia’s uranium, the West did not sanction them on uranium, they can’t sanction Russia on uranium because of their energy needs. Russia itself is cutting down on the supply of uranium to Europe. Kazakhstan supplies Europe with 26% uranium too. From Kazakhstan to Western Europe, the uranium has to pass through Russia by shipment, which is not feasible because Russia won’t allow it to pass.”
Ibadin stated that Europe’s plan B is Niger. They are making alternative plans to get their uranium from Niger Republic. He said they were discussing with the Nigerien president before the coup-plotters took over and the soldiers are loyal to Russia, the same Russia the Europeans are trying to avoid. However, there is another big issue.
The security expert further outlined a big bone of contention, which is the Nord Stream Underwater Pipeline that was blown up sometime ago. It could cause a bigger conflict than the war in Ukraine, if care is not taken.
“The Nord Stream Underwater Pipeline previously moved gas from Russia to Western Europe before the war started against Ukraine. When it was blown up, it dealt a major blow to the Russian economy. It was not as if Russia became poor, but it was a hit that Russia really felt, and all fingers pointed to the US, though they had not officially taken responsibility. The US became the sole supplier of gas to Europe after that.
“Where Niger came in was through the Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline (TSGP) project, a proposed natural pipeline from Nigeria to Algeria aimed at supplying Europe gas. It is seen as a means to diversify the European Union’s gas sources. If it succeeds, it would mean Europe does not need Russian gas anymore.”
Ibadin explained where the issue is, which is, all the while, the TSGP project has been abandoned. “Why reawaken it now? There is a cold war between Russia and Europe, which is playing out in Ukraine, Sudan and now about to ignite in Niger.
“Africa, why is it that it’s either you are loyal to colonial Europe, the West, or loyal to Russia, another superpower, and the trade in commerce is almost friendly, unlike Europe that controls you fully? Must you be subjected to anybody’s control?” Ibadin asked.
The security boss reminded the president that, with the challenge confronting the gas pipeline, which was not allowed to pass through Niger, Europe was stuck, “so it’s not just a France thing, it’s the whole Europe that is affected. France is only fronting for the whole of Europe.”
Explaining further, he said, “That is why there is so much pressure on ECOWAS to act by the UN. So, it’s also a make-or-break issue for the coup-plotters in Niger, the more reason our president should calm down.
“To compound the issue, troops of the Wagner PMC group are now in Niger,” Ibadin warned; “and if you know their history, they don’t joke, they don’t play. Imagine the effects of the war on Ghana, Nigeria and every nation in the western sub-region. If war happens, it is not going to be for Niger alone. Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Algeria and Egypt, too, have a stake in it.
“We can’t ask Europe not to fight because, if they don’t fight, how are they going to get gas? The only way they can survive now is through this pipeline from Warri.”
According to the security boss, Nigeria is gradually heading towards a Ukraine-style situation, and some people are advising the president wrongly to go to war, when he is still new in office and yet to settle down to the task of governance.
Ibadin cautioned that it’s not going to be an easy war, “That is why we are hoping that the voice of reason will just take over.
“Why should we even be fighting ourselves? You do not fight your brother. Why should we join the colonial masters to fight our brothers? ECOWAS and the African Union should actually focus on free trade for themselves, not fighting themselves. The Europe that is trying to disunite us, they have free trade and free visas among themselves. “Getting a visa to another African country is very difficult. Where is the love for one another? That should be the priority for the African Union, not fighting ourselves; these are our neighbours. People in Niger Republic are married to people in Nigeria and the like. Why should we engage in such fights?” the security boss asked.
He bared his mind further, stating that, if Africa were to be intelligent, the people have all it takes to make themselves rich. There are opportunities, products and raw materials, but Africans prefer to put money in things that will impoverish them, instead of enrich them, and this is affecting Africa, because the people are constantly being deceived and played to continue to do things that will destabilise the economy and not things that will bring progress.
“Why is it that we are always tilting towards things that make us fail and not things that can help us progress?” Ibadin wondered, and that was why he suggested that President Tinubu, as the head of ECOWAS, should go to Niger to negotiate, to make sure that the US and the West do not infiltrate ECOWAS. He should prevent war between member states and ensure the pipeline project is implemented, as Nigeria needs money from gas revenue, not war. There are many diplomatic ways to restore orderliness to West Africa, he said.
