Can Africa move forward?

This was the question that came to my mind after the Gabon coup was announced last week. Gen. Brice Nguema toppled his cousin, President Ali Bongo, to “end” the dynasty of the family in Gabon. Gen. Nguema was the head of the Presidential Guard of the deposed Bongo, and a well-known beneficiary of the corrupt dynasty.

The ailing Bongo, who could barely walk unaided after suffering a stroke years ago, brought himself this misfortune due to a hotly disputed presidential election, which he claimed to have won, that sparked off protests throughout the country.

The jubilations that erupted all over Gabon after the coup should not be seen as evidence of support for the new military leaders. Rather, the impoverished people of that country celebrated their liberation from the stranglehold of the Bongo family over their nation. A nation where Ali and his late father, Omar, ruled for a combined period of 56 years.

Nguema, who is now the leader, and relative of the deposed leader, is another Bongo in uniform. How he runs the country will show his true colours. Other sit-tight dictators in African countries like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Rwanda received the news of the Gabon coup with trepidation. Leaders in those countries quickly reshuffled their military leaderships in response to the Gabon situation. Mostly to buy time and frustrate any coup attempt. How long will this help to keep them in power as this wind of change seems to be blowing away dictators across Africa remains to be seen.

The global headwinds of economic crisis is biting hardest in the region. Desert encroachment, climate change, drought and food scarcity constitute severe constraints to development. Most countries in the region are plagued by huge external debt burden. Some countries like Nigeria use about 90 percent of their revenue to service foreign debt. Little or nothing is left for development.

However, military rule does not seem to be a viable alternative to the corrupt civilian governments. The soldiers are as corrupt as the civilian governments they demonize and supplant. No military president has given exemplary leadership anywhere in Africa. They often transmute into civilian strong men or blatant sit tight dictators like Eyadema, Gaddafi, Bokassa, Marcia Nguema, Blaise Campaore, etc. It is likely that the new generation military dictators in Mali, Niger, Chad, Gabon follow in the footsteps of the old dictators once they consolidate their hold on power.

What can be done to move Africa forward? Politically, the governance model it inherited from the colonial powers seems not to be working. The wave of coups in the Francophone countries is much more than a rejection of corrupt leadership. Rather, the new elites in those countries are trying to assert their independence from French long term dominance. The French policy of assimilation in their old colonies have become old fashioned and anachronistic.

Many African countries now want to do things their own way without looking up to Paris for approval. That is a new reality the French must come to terms with. People in the Franco-Phone countries no longer fear their old colonial boss. The new military leaders in Niger ordered the French Ambassador to leave their country. That would have been taboo in earlier times. This is a clear signal that French influence is waning and there is a need to accept this reality. No amount of political grandstanding can sway the restive youth.

The AU and other regional bodies like ECOWAS should reconsider the reasons behind the forceful seizure of power in Africa, rather react to the coups alone. It is obvious that threats of sanctions cannot prevent coups. Corrupt civilian governments, through their self-serving leadership inadvertently beckon on ambitious soldiers to seize power.

Africa can move forward if we take a critical look at the fundamentals, not just scratch the surface of a deeply entrenched problem that is rooted in decades of neglect by African leaders. The global connectivity through the internet and all its numerous social media platforms, have made it impossible for any dictator to cage and oppress his people for too long. People are influenced by developments in other climes, and they ask questions about why things are not going well back home.

Nowadays, mercenary groups like the Russian Wagner group and other criminal gangs have shown clearly that government forces could be challenged and in fact, defeated in battle. In West Africa, ISIL backed terrorists like the Boko Haram insurgents in Nigeria, have for years engaged government forces and seized territories. They impose their evil ruler ship over captured communities and resist legitimate, constituted authority in long drawn battles, using sophisticated arms and ammunition.

This kind of power struggle could only be imagined decades back. Most nations live with that terrifying reality today, largely because of dysfunctional leadership and the global economic crisis. Africa will move forward, but we need the right approach to development and a new type of leadership.