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From Paul Orude, Bauchi
Although there are at least 15 governorship candidates jostling to take over Ramat House in Bauchi State in the forthcoming governorship election, the contested is being keenly contested between the two candidates of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Close watchers of events have narrowed their permutations to the two major political parties as far as the Bauchi Governorship election is concerned.
A careful analysis of the two – incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed of the PDP and his main challenger Ambassador Saddique Abubakar of the APC – reveals that the pendulum can swing to either man as we x-ray the strengths and weaknesses of the two governorship candidates in the race.
Governor Bala Mohammed’s Strengths
Let’s begin by looking at the strengths that Senator Bala Mohammed is bringing into the battle.
Mohammed has established himself as an experienced politician since 2007 when he first burst into the limelight by defeating then-incumbent Governor Adamu Mu’azu to become a senator. Since then he has fought and won many political battles including a failed recall by his constituents, before being appointed minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) by President Goodluck Jonathan.
In 2015, he went into one of his toughest battles and defeated a sitting Governor. A few weeks from now he is going to enter into another battle, this time a decisive one: the quest to retain his seat as governor. It’s a tough one because his main challenger is proving not to be an underdog contrary to earlier predictions. In this contest, every man must make use of his best arsenal at his disposal. In this regard, Governor Mohammed has certain strengths going into the governorship race that might be determinants to his success if fully engaged the right way
First, the governor will rely on the projects that he has executed in the past three and a half years as governor to seek re-election. This is a major plus for the governor who has been praised for developing infrastructures across the state as have never been seen before within a short period of governance. Another area of advantage that Governor Mohammed will also bank on is his excellent relationship with religious groups and traditional rulers in the state, which he established after his election in 2019. This cordial relationship with groups has been sustained by his administration as the 2023 general election draws closer. Recently, the Izala group came out to openly appreciate Governor Mohammed for doing a lot for them. The group said the governor built schools and mosques for them. The Christian Association of Nigeria also openly appreciated the governor for building churches for Christians in the state. The Christian body led its members in the state on December 26, Boxing Day to the Government House, Bauchi to register their appreciation to him, singing solidarity songs during the visit. The governor may rely on the strength of this relationship with various groups in the state, believing they won’t disappoint him when they cast their votes. He is positive such groups would mobilise their members to vote for him.
Another Strength of Governor Bala Mohammed is the powerful apparatus of Government at his disposal which he has been fully mobilising for his re-election ambition. The Governor recently toured all the 20 local government areas in the state on an empowerment drive where large money and resources were mobilized to uplift the people of the grassroots from poverty. Huge sums of money and cars were distributed to campaign coordinators and even musicians in the state to mobilise voters. The Governor is taking advantage of the powerful government apparatus to ensure he is elected. He is also trying to ensure that traditional and community leaders are carried along to mobilise the people of the grassroots to vote for him as he did during his statewide campaigns. This was obvious when he started paying homages to first-class emirs in the state. The next phase of this strategy is a visitation to the district all the district heads across the state. Wherever he visited a monarch, he canvassed for votes and make promises to boost his chances. Thus, going to the people to canvass for a vote may work in his favour.
The effect of the presidential candidate of the PDP Alhaji Atiku Abubakar might also be another thing that might work in his favour. After what appeared to be a no love lost relationship that trailed the party’s primary in Abuja where Atiku and Mohammed were Presidential aspirants before the former clinched the ticket, it appeared that the relationship has been mended. Governor Mohammed in the course of his campaign tour of all the local governments in the state aggressively campaigned for the former Vice President. Atiku reciprocated this gesture during the President Campaign rally held at the Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium when he urged the mammoth supporters to vote for Bala Mohammed as governor. This is a major booster to Mohammed’s re-election in a state where Atiku is gaining more popularity.
Weaknesses
One of the biggest threats to Governor Mohammed’s re-election bid is his administration’s inability to fulfil the 2019 campaign promises he made to pay allowances to civil servants which lingered until his successor Mohammed Abubakar lost the election. This development has again caused disaffection between Governor Mohammed and the civil servants in the state as the general election approaches. Related to this is the promise to address the long-standing pension and gratuity which have not been adequately implemented by Governor Bala Mohammed’s administration. This is contrary to the expectations of both working and retired civil servants. This development is capable of reducing his chances. The governor during one of his campaign tours recently begged for forgiveness and promised a better deal for civil servants and pensioners when re-elected, Whether this apology would be enough to assuage the civil servants and retirees who are the powerful decider in Bauchi State guber elections is a matter of time.
The second impediment to his chances is the shocking removal of former minister of Special Duties Mohammed Bello Kirfi from his traditional title of Wazirin of Bauchi. There are those who believed that this decision can affect his chances because the opposition has already started capitalizing on the removal of the Waziri by sympathizing with him. The opposition is using it to campaign against the incumbent governor. The residence of Bello Kirfi in Bauchi has become a Mecca of sorts since his removal as Wazirin and most of those visiting him are members of the opposition, particularly the opposition party, the APC. Another thing that is weakness of the governor is that he is surrounded by lieutenants and political appointees that would be unable to deliver their constituencies to the PDP in the forthcoming general election. This is because most of his political appointees have not made much impact on their people at the grassroots, with exception of a few like Honourable Nuhu Zaki, the current Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs. Most of his Commissioners, Special Advisers and aides have been accused of being stingy and almost all of them can hardly gift people in need in their area N10, 000. So only a few of them can deliver their constituency to the PDP.
Another obstacle in the way of Governor Mohammed’s re-election is his inability to reconcile with powerful politicians from Bauchi state like former Speaker Yakubu Dogara. He also needs to step up and cultivate a good relationship with former Governor Adamu Muazu who is still in the PDP. He needs to improve his relationship with these powerful politicians and other aggrieved PDP stakeholders. Most of them shunned his campaign tour but showed up for the Presidential Campaign rally for Atiku Abubakar.
Governor Mohammed is having sleeplessness over the federal might which might come to play. The APC Gubernatorial candidate Air Mashal Saddique Abubakar is receiving lots of attention from the ruling party in his quest to wrest power from the incumbent. If the ruling APC sustained that momentum then definitely Governor Mohammed will lose the election except he has to fight it in court.
Strength of APC candidate Saddique Abubakar
When Air Marshal Saddique Abubakar first nursed the idea of aspiring to become a governor of Bauchi State only a few gave him the chance. He sent a strong message of his political dexterity even though he is a new entrant in politics when he won the APC Governorship ticket without much rancour. Since then he has steadily warmed his way into the hearts of the electorate in Bauchi. One interesting thing about the Bauchi electorate is that a politician takes them for granted to his one detriment. With this at the back of their minds politicians, whether in power or aspiring to get power to avoid learning the bitter way.
While there are other candidates besides the incumbent that have thrown their hats in the race, the entrance of the immediate Chief of Air Force, Air Marshal Saddiuqe Abubakar has changed the dynamics. Initially seen as a lightweight because of his lack of political experience, Abubakar has gradually taken the Bauchi State political landscape by storm and demonstrated that he is a force to reckon with
Strengths
One of his strengths is the federal might which if the APC fully uses can lead to an upset The APC lost the 2015 Governorship election narrowly and is still nursing pain and must have re-srategised and ready to reclaim power. In Saddique Abubakar, a fine air force man who became the 20th Chief of AirForce in 2015, retired on a high note by being deployed to serve the country as ambassador they found a worthy flag bearer. One advantage he has is that his wife, Hajia Sadiya Umar Farouk, Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development, is a powerful ally of President Muhammadu Buhari. Sadiya has been passionately working underground to ensure that her husband becomes the next governor of Bauchi State. Saddique is also a known political son of Buhari and APC will definitely flex its federal muscle to displace the PDP from power. The retired airforce chief recently had a rally to drum support for his governorship bid, over N3 billion was raised at that rally by the powerful Buhari boys, the cabal so to say in the State House were there and even donated to him. This shows that Saddique Abubakr might have an Upper hand because even people like former Chief of Air Saddique Buratai, Rotimi Amaechi, and Shehu Malami all donated money to his campaign. With good political managers that can market him, coupled with enough resources at his disposal he is going to give the incumbent governor a good fight in the election, especially considering the way the incumbent is deploying resources to retain the seat in the name of empowerment. Another advantage of Saddique Abubakar is the solid structure of the APC which gave him little struggle to sell his candidacy. He is fortunate that even after the party was defeated by the incumbent governor in 2019, the party did not go down. If he properly utilizes the structure of the party he will likely win the next election to become Governor. He has powerful politicians willing to support him. Saddique Abubakar has three ministers from Bauchi State –his wife Sadiya, Malam Adamu Adamu (Education) and Maryam Katagum (Minister of State, Trade and Industry) are expected to throw their weight behind him. The APC candidate is also expected to get solid support from the military authority which sees him as one of their own and will like accept him. By Nigerian tradition, military support likely leads to success. For instance, Obasanjo won the election and Buhari also won after the merger and the opposition became strong. These tendencies can bring success to the APC candidate. The APC Governorship candidate might also gain sympathisers following the allegation that he is not an indigene of Bauchi State. The PDP used this tactic in 2007 when denied Isa Yuguda the governorship ticket. Yuguda decamped to the defunct All People’s Party (APP) and won the election. There is a section of the electorate that this line of the campaign might not fly. If anything, it may end up being an advantage for Saddique Abubakar.
Weaknesses
Saddique Abubakar needs to do more in canvassing for votes at the grassroots, something that the incumbent has been doing including passing nights in communities while on the campaign. He also needs to capture most of these Islamic groups in the state who are powerful deciders in the governorship elections of Bauchi State. He needs their votes. Saddique must equally woo the Christian communities in the state as the incumbent has effectively done this. The religious leaders and groups are influential in the politics of the state because they have the pulpit and platform to reach a large audience. They can send messages to large gatherings within a short time. APC candidate has not effectively utilised this platform and it might count against him going into the polls. His refusal to visit them is a minus. Another weakness of Siddique Abubakar is that the electorate lament that he does not have a single project to show apart from the Airforce base and school he influenced to be sighted in Bauchi. He has a Herculean task to prove to the people of Bauchi State how he can be reliable when he becomes governor. Another thing that may count against the APC governor’s chances of becoming a governor is the issue of his identity. Many in the Katagum zone where he hailed from are disputing that Saddique Abubakar is not their soil. Despite these weaknesses, Sddique Abubakar is a candidate to beat.
