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Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, former Vice President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has promised to restore fuel subsidy, if elected the next President of the country. Atiku’s proposal is not for total subsidy restoration, which was bugged by systemic corruption, but targeted subsidy intervention to ameliorate economic hardship occasioned by high cost of fuel and rising cost of living. Prior to the 2023 general election, Atiku, like Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi, promised to remove fuel subsidy during the campaigns. But they differed on how fuel subsidy removal would be implemented.
To the surprise of many Nigerians, Tinubu removed fuel subsidy during his inauguration speech on May 29, 2023, without factoring in how to cushion the effects of that policy statement on the first day of assumption of office. With Tinubu’s “Subsidy is gone” speech, the economy literally tumbled overnight with spiraling prices of fuel, goods and services. Despite government’s claim that subsidy removal has put more money in government coffers; more Nigerians have become poorer from May 29, 2023 till now than they were before.
In other words, Nigerians were better-off before May 29, 2023 than now. Most Nigerians, including the 140 million who are multi-dimensionally poor, are not feeling the economic benefits of subsidy removal. House rents, transportation costs, prices of food items, meat and school fees are on the rise. The exchange rate has not improved since then and the same with the pump price of fuel.
The official exchange rate of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) to the US Dollar (USD) in May 29, 2023 was approximately N450 to N465 per dollar, while the parallel or black market rate traded around N760 to N770 per dollar. In the same way, the official pump price of petrol was roughly N184 to N197 per litre at state-regulated outlets such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC). With Tinubu’s ‘subsidy is gone’ rhetoric of May 29, 2023, the prices jumped above N500 in many stations.
Currently, the pump price of petrol ranges between N1,100 to N1,400 per litre. The current exchange rate is about N1,345 per one dollar. In 2015, the exchange rate was about N200 per dollar. With this high exchange rate, the economy cannot witness a rebound despite the number of statistics rolled out by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on inflation, economic growth and other indices. How do ordinary people gauge the economy? They do so by the prices of pepper, yams, cassava, beans, akara and bread in the market and not what experts at Bretton Woods’ institutions are saying about the economy.
Those in government should factor how people react to the economy as well as their feelings about the economic decisions of the government. They should worry how economic policies affect ordinary Nigerians, who do not have access to public funds like those in government. Those in government don’t really feel the impact of government’s policies the way and manner ordinary folks feel it.
The cost of living in Nigeria is so excruciating that the monthly salary of an average Nigerian worker hardly takes him home in spite of the N70,000 new national minimum wage. For instance, a 50kg bag of rice is about N80,000 and N115,000 depending on the brand, type and where it is bought. Let policy makers appreciate this reality, which may be different from their own reality. Those in power and those outside it cannot see the same reality. There realities are bound to be different.
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Atiku’s proposed restoration of targeted fuel subsidy did not come without criticisms, especially from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) front. They said that Atiku is ignorant of the economy. They said Atiku had promised to remove subsidy in 2023. What has changed, they asked? They describe Atiku’s subsidy removal gambit as desperation for power and not realistic. Some other critics opine that Atiku’s proposal may scare investors away from the country. Some even say that Atiku may still change his mind over subsidy removal if he wins the poll.
Atiku has alleged that the government mismanaged the removal of subsidy and asked the government to explain how the subsidy windfall was spent. The former Vice President has asked the presidency to account for N30trillion in Federation Account revenues, deductions, saving, transfers and N12.8 trillion service-wide vote contained in the 2026 budget. Following the directive of President Bola Tinubu, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has updated Nigerians on the gains of his administration’s economic reforms.
He revealed that a total of N15.8trillion was paid into the Federation Account between June 2023 and December 2025 as proceeds of fuel subsidy removal. Of the total, the federal government got N5.4 trillion within the period, while 36 states and 774 local governments received N10.4 trillion. At the same time, the federal government borrowed N11.9trillion between June 2023 and December 2025.
It is good that the federal government has explained how money to the Federation Account from June 2023 to December 2025 was spent. As usual, the federal government has the lion’s share while the remainder went to the states and local governments. Each tier of government should explain how it used the allocation from Abuja. In this season of political campaigns, the economy will feature prominently in the campaigns because of the prevailing hardship in the country.
The reason for the removal of fuel subsidy was due to brazen corruption in its management. The major argument then was that the proceeds would be channeled to improve the standard of living of Nigerians. Three years down the line, the masses are still at the receiving end of every government’s bad policy. This is why Atiku’s new stand on fuel subsidy removal should be looked at and not necessarily from the prism of politics.
The campaign for the 2027 presidential election will be on how the economy has affected the Nigerian people from May 29, 2023 till date. Atiku has just opened the conversation around the subsidy removal and the need for accountability over its proceeds. How Atiku’s targeted withdrawal will be implemented and whether it will be good to the people and the economy is left to be seen.
The APC and indeed other stakeholders should have a rethink over the management of subsidy gains. The suffering from subsidy removal should not be perpetual; it is time to see the fruits. We have sowed enough seeds of pain to begin to see its ripe fruits.
