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Psychologists world over are in agreement that studying human behavior is a difficult task in spite of the fact that it is what that field of study precisely sets out to do. According to the American Psychological Association, psychology is the scientific study of the mind and behavior. It is a broad area that looks at thoughts, behavior, personality, emotion, motivation in order to get an insight into why people behave the way they do and what drives them.
I have gone into this long discuss to lay a premise for what has continued to stump me and many other people, who have over the centuries, tried to understand why people behave the way they do.
My concern derives from the ongoing in the fold of the All Progressives Congress (APC). But a little digression. Prior to the 2015 elections that ushered in the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC, the then ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had prided itself as the largest party in Africa and at the zenith of its power, one of its National chairmen out of the several that had its temporary scepter of leadership, Vincent Ogbulafor had boasted then that it would rule the country for about 60 years. So powerful was the PDP that one tended to believe that possibility at the time. Unfortunately, it was a blurred crystal ball that Ogbulafor gazed into. PDP was only able to hold the rein of government for 16 years. The APC tsunami swept it out of power. What happened? It self-destruct. At the time, not many ever thought it would ever regain its equilibrium again. PDP defeat was orchestrated from within its fold. Disagreement among its different actors led to its fragmentation.
The APC became Nigeria’s beautiful bride. President Buhari, the integrous, upright, ascetic former army General came in. His victory also helped in the ‘capture’ of some States, to use one of the popular PDP slogans at the period, hitherto believed to be PDP’s stronghold.
Five years on, the story is changing. The APC is also beset by its internal problem which could lead to devastating consequences. It is not as if the president is not who we all know him to be, in many quarters, he is still highly respected for his self-discipline and abstention from all forms of indulgence. The problem is simply from within the APC fold. That keeps me wondering why APC is failing (I do not want to say it has failed as there’s still time to correct itself and come out stronger) to learn from the mistakes that brought PDP to its knees and its subsequent defeat in 2015.
There is turmoil in APC at the national and the state chapters. National chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole is battling for survival. In his Edo State, he is persona non grata, having been suspended by the local party chapter. His archenemy today is the man he singlehandedly installed as governor. I watched him on TV during the campaign that ushered in Governor Godwin Obaseki. I saw Comrade Oshiomhole campaigning as if his life depended on it. He was all over the podium, dancing and pantomiming to the amusement of many who thought he was campaigning for another term. Someone should please go back and watch the clip of that campaign.
By installing Obaseki, he became the enemy to so many other people. His beautiful bride at the time, and I am not talking about his wife, the Cape Verde beauty, has today become his archenemy. Given half the chance, the governor he installed would run his benefactor out of town, if he has not already done that. At the national level, Oshiomhole is also embattled, he escaped removal during APC’s National Working Committee (NWC) meeting in Abuja last year. Not because he is incompetent. It is the same problem that plagued PDP that is presently playing out in APC.
The rapidity with which PDP also went through its chairmen at the time left many confused. APC seems reluctant or unable to learn from the mistake that brought PDP to its knees. That is what led to the long academic exercise at the beginning of this piece on the study of human behavior. Do humans really learn from their mistakes especially in this clime or they allow ambition to becloud their behaviours, making them oblivious to the obvious?
When Oshiomhole was jumping from pillars to post, it never occurred to him that Obaseki would be his nemesis. As a leader, once the home front becomes unsafe, outside becomes perilous. If the walls do not have an opening the lizard would not find accommodation within, as my people would say. It is not too far-fetched to say the crisis at home is fueled from outside. As early as mid-last year, I had told many who cared to listen that there was a plan to get Oshiomhole out of office. What is happening now is a tip of what to expect in 2020 and towards 2023.
More bold steps would be taken against key political actors, leading to fears about APC’s survival towards 2023. These are all consequences of ambition. It is all over town that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is interested in contesting in 2023. I have no problem with that, he is competent and eminently qualified to do so. If there would be any impediment to that ambition, it would come from within not from the opposition.
So why is APC not learning from the mistake of its predecessor? To learn from history by taking a cue from what happened to PDP and keep its house in order. As said earlier, the defeat of APC could only come from within if it does not retrace its step early enough. Whether it would do that or not remains to be seen.
