African airlines to fly 98m passengers in 2024 –AFRAA

By Chinelo Obogo

The African Airlines Association (AFRAA) has predicted a significant milestone for African aviation in 2024, with passenger numbers projected to reach 98 million. This would surpass pre-pandemic levels, signifying a strong recovery for the industry.

AFRAA’s March report highlights a 12.6% increase in offered seat capacity within Africa (14.3 million in March 2019 to 16.1 million in March 2024) due to new routes and increased frequencies, suggesting a robust recovery year for African airlines in 2024. This rise in capacity can be attributed to the introduction of new routes and increased flight frequencies. The body said that 2024 would be the year of recovery for aviation as airlines operations have exceeded pre-covid level both in terms of capacity and traffic carried.

According to AFRAA, capacity share between African and non-African operators, shows a close balance (50.7% vs. 49.3%) when considering both regional and intercontinental routes. It says an analysis of intercontinental routes reveals a significant disparity as non-African operators hold a dominant position, controlling approximately 64.3% of the capacity compared to African operators’ 35.7%.

The report states: “The number of seats offered in the region increased by 12.6%, from 14.3 million in March 2019 to 16.1 million in March 2024, thanks to new routes and frequencies added. Over the same period, ASKs also exceeded the level of March 2019 by 7.7%. African carriers accounted for 49.5% of the international capacity and 35.9% of the intercontinental capacity.

“AFRAA estimates that passenger traffic carried by African operators in 2024 will be about 98 million.  In terms of capacity split between African and non-African operators on both regional and intercontinental routes, AFRAA estimate a 50.7% and 49.3% respectively. A further disaggregation of capacity on only the intercontinental routes reveals a much lower share of 35.7% for Africa as against 64.3% for non-African operators.

“Though continent-wide intra-African connectivity exceeded pre-Covid level since December 2022, major hubs like Johannesburg and Casablanca are yet to reach 2019 levels.  Similar to traffic growth, African airlines are also seeing improved revenue performance. AFRAA estimated revenue for January 2024 was US$ 1.83 billion compared to US$1.56 billion in November, 2023 indicating a revenue growth of 14.75%.”