By Victor C. Ariole
In World War II, the United States made common cause with communists to fight fascists. In cold war, the CIA used fascists to combat communists… (For World War III) The White House and Pentagon (had) presumed that intentions for opposing sides would be identical – destroy their enemy on the first day of World War III by locating enemy military capabilities and destroying them first … in Legacy of Ashes, 129.
When World War III contingently (50/50) targets Africa and `Evil Axis’, African Union remains naïve. For Rwanda both African Union and UNO are quite undecided as Rwanda’s past suffering known as Rwandan genocide still hangs on their necks. For Israel, far off in 800 BC and 400 BC respectively both Iran (Persia) and Egypt (not Arabs, African Pharaohs)had tried to eliminate them in slavery followed by the West (Romans)in 70 AD, and Israel restored by the same West in 1948. Hence, for Bibi (Netanyahu) it is a fight against existential threat, because as technology intelligence and signal intelligence gathered upon which he is working on, indicate that Iran has over 20,000 ballistic missiles to launch into Israel,on the assumption that whether Israel is protected by air defence dome or not, at least 2,000 will hit their target; and that make for equivalence of two nuclear bombs which could create radiation that could, indeed, make Israel uninhabitable for at least 100 years.
Africans would say the “owl cried yesterday and the child died the next day”. In effect, finding and killing the owl could have prevented the child from dying. Drumbeat like the cry of the owl is sounding everywhere mostly in Europe (Russia-Ukraine war), Middle-East (Iran – Israel war) and to an extent, for supply of war materials in Africa (Sahel Region), Rwanda and Congo Democratic Republic (DRC). In all, the opposing sides seem to know themselves though uncoordinated now but could quickly find alignment when the D – day turns in. The D – day turns in when Russia’s warning to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) not to interfere in its war with Ukraine is ignored or when Israel and Iran drag NATO and communist – controlled Russia and Chinese into it. Israel and Iran are already proving that it could be a war of technology intelligence gathering as well as signal intelligence gathering to destroy the spread-out military capabilities of opposing sides. Russia and China are gradually chasing away France from their bases of influence in Africa as prelude for establishing strong military base and raw material sourcing base. USA seems to be mostly interested in raw material sourcing hence the idea of deal negotiating with Ukraine and Democratic Republic of Congo.
USA has decided to mediate between Congo DR and Rwanda, directly or indirectly to protect resources’ exploitation in favour of USA. In order to extricate itself of France`s influence, in 1996, Rwanda added English as its official language and, in 2008, it made English the sole medium of educating its youths so as to be fully involved in activities in East African community that is mostly English speaking. However, in June 2025 as it aspired to lead the community of Central African States, it informally switched over to French as all the States in Central Africa have French as their official language, inclusive of even Equatorial Guinea, Hispanophone and Sao Tomé and Principé, Lusophone; both speaking French. Here, again, they refused to allow Kagamé to take over the leadership, pointing at his belligerent stance in the region and his support for the occupation of M23 dissidents in Goma, eastern part of Democratic Republic of Congo. What is more, Kagamé unilaterally allows UK to deport Africans into Rwanda and by extension Africa.
So, like Rwanda`s Kagamé of about 14 million people, facing, all around, other countries of about 200 million, USA seems to be aligning with United Kingdom that is already a great ally of Rwanda to replicate what obtains in middle east between about 10 million Israelis and their over 200 million neighbours. Whether Rwanda agrees to sign the deal worked out by USA or not, between it and DR Congo come 27th June, Rwanda remains the best bet for United Kingdom and USA in securing resources’ exploitation in that region and other Africancountries, as without the wherewithal to oppose it, Africans remain ever cowered as it is happening to Iran at the moment.
The question to ask is “where is African Union and United Nations` Organisation (UNO) – two supranational bodies – that ought to ensure peaceful behaviour of their members especially in keeping sacrosanct sovereignty of countries and ensuring implementation of rules in respect of Human Rights. Somehow, USA intends to toe the lines of its former President – Eisenhower – “winning a global war against USA enemy, must not be hindered by its cost” or human rights’ nicety. From Tim Weiner`s book, Eisenhower states: “we should do what is necessary even if the result was to change the American way of life”. The same goes for the “Bay of Pigs” in Cuba, then; and at worst occupy Cuba was the last resort of the plan if not for the presence of USSR.
While USA is strategising with its main ally on how to deal with perceived enemy, the perceived enemy for now seems very cunning like green snake in green grass, watching events as they unfold in Iran – Israel war as well as actuating possible demise of Rwandan influence in both central and eastern Africa as most countries in Africa in both central and east Africa are being listed as visa-ban candidates for USA, except Rwanda.
At least, banning most African countries from entering USA ought to trigger concern for African Union unless AU is just on paper. USA assumes that allying with Rwanda is sufficient to tame Africa like it seems to be doing in the Middle East. Diplomatically, when a country starts withdrawing its interest in a nation or a country, it informs of impending hostility; USA seems to be declaring hostility in Africa.
Somehow what the Economic Community of Central African States` Members did to Rwanda by not allowing it to lead the association ought to be escalated to African Union level as well as allow African Union to mediate for peace between Rwanda and the rest of its neighbours, for unity purposes and to obviate existential threat; and Africa is facing that like both Iran and Israel.
Furthermore to avert, looming World War III, China, Russia and France should persuade USA – which seems quite difficult as it did not happen in the gathering of G7 this June in Canada – to convince Bibi and Ayatola Khomenei to come to peace deal discussion under United Nations’ Organisation’s auspices, unless UNO is about to be dissolved like League of Nations before the commencement of World War II. Note, Africa is not going to be spared as “Evil Axis runs through middle east and Africa. Evil Axis is as designed by the West.
• ARIOLE, Ph.D
Professor of French and Francophone Studies
University of Lagos