From Jude Owuamanam, Jos
As Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State enters the second stanza of his first term in office, the political direction of the state appears currently to be navigating in a zig-zag manner. This is primarily because of the political party under which the governor may seek a re-election in 2027 for a second term in office.
The ship of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) under whose mandate he’s governing is navigating through a turbulence, with the captains not knowing where the direction the wind is blowing the ship.
For Mutfwang, this situation can best be described with the Greek mythology, ‘Between the Scylla and the Charybdis’.
The Scylla, according to the myth, is a hydra-headed monster with sharp teeth, long necks and tentacles, which inhabited the Italian portion of the Strait of Messina, lying between Italy and the ancient city of Sicily. With these dangerous features, ships were always afraid to cross the stretch because it can drag sailors with its tentacles and devour them.
On the other hand, the Charybdis, is described as monstrous whirlpool that inhabited the Sicilian side of the strait of Messina, opposite the Scylla, said to be equally capable of swallowing the entire ship and its contents.
So either way, navigating through this strait made it a very risky enterprise for sailors because they’re not sure of coming out alive. So, in the circumstances they found themselves, the sailors have had to make very hard choices.
This is exactly the situation, Governor Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang of Plateau has found himself – navigating precariously between the Scylla of choosing PDP, whose political future is very uncertain so as to avoid the loophole of no “no structure” that nearly cost him his seat in the first instance and the Charybdis of contesting under APC, where he appeared unwelcomed and with the dangerous prospect of losing a large support base.
In the build up to the judgment of the Supreme Court on the 2023 governorship election in Plateau State, there were speculations that Governor Mutfwang must have made some compromises, one of which was the promise of jumping ship from the PDP to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as soon as the judgment favoured him. The idea was to ensure that not only would he retain his seat, but one that would ensure his continuity in 2027.
Indeed, the build up to that epic judgment created tension in the state as the lower court, in an earlier judgment, had swept all the 16 members of the House of Assembly on the premise that the PDP under which platform they were nominated, including Mutfwang, to contest the election had no structure to have chosen them as candidates for the election in the first place.
On this premise, the appellate court declared their election null and void. The opposition APC became the beneficiary of that judgment as the party’s candidates in the election were declared winners.
The lawmakers became the sore losers since their cases terminated at the Appeal Court. For Mutfwang, the Supreme Court became his saving grace as he has that last chance to retain his seat. So it was actually a high wired political horse trading that saw Mutfwang retaining his seat.
Currently, Mutfwang is the only governor in Nigeria that has no member of his party as a member of the legislature. With the Court of Appeal judgment, the APC inherited the 16 positions previously held by the PDP to add to the six seats it won during the election, making it a total of 22 members in the 24-member House of Assembly.
The Labour Party and the Young Progressives Party shared the other two slots. More baffling is the fact that Plateau is the only state where a lone member of a political party is the Speaker of the House.
But the real dilemma continues – APC or PDP. Though the governor had at different fora made it clear that he has no ambition of defecting to the APC, the choice for him is very hard.
In PDP, the governor is facing tough choices. Can he still remain in a sinking ship with no direction? Even if he were to stick his political fortune to the PDP, to which of the factions does he belong to? Who conducts the primary election, a prerequisite for choosing the flagbearer for any elective position.
If he were to pitch his tent with the PDP, will he not fall into the same structureless pit, which he was barely able to pull himself out from.
Even PDP in Plateau State is not immune from the crisis at the national level. There are allegations that Mutfwang abandoned the 16 sacked PDP members to their fate as soon as they lost their seats.
It was even alleged that the 16 seats were sacrificed in the altar of that political horse trading to allow Mutfwang to retain his own seat. So, for the 16 sacked lawmakers, 2027 may be a payback time as they may be waiting on the wings to extract their own pound of flesh.
Therefore, some PDP bigwigs have expressed apprehension.
“It is on this note that we wish to issue a sound warning to the leaders of our great party, the PDP, that their failure to draw the attention of Governor Caleb Mutfwang to properly sit up and run a purposeful and results-oriented leadership to make up for the lost ground and emulate the achievement of the last PDP administration in Plateau State, will spell doom for the party in the 2027 general elections.
“We wish to humbly and respectfully advise Governor Caleb Mutfwang to drastically reduce the rate of his local and foreign travels and face the challenges of governance that are currently lacking in the state if he is dreaming of coming back in 2027,” they advised.
Also some group of PDP supporters have warned Mutfwang to be careful about those he called sycophants and praise singers.
At a recent press briefing, the group, which styled itself Plateau State PDP Frontiers, warned: “Governor Mutfwang should know that the praise singers and sycophants are only misleading him while critical stakeholders of the PDP, that immensely contributed to his victory as well as their loyalists have abandoned him and decamped to the APC, and others decided to remain in the PDP to sink the party along with him in 2027.”
Beneath the crisis in the state chapter of the PDP is the alleged cold war between the governor and the Chris Hassan-led executive.
The discontent was said to have started from the last local government election, where the governor was accused of neglecting the party exco in the choice of candidates for the election. The governor was alleged to have solely nominated the majority of the candidates for the October 9, 2024 local government election, in which the PDP won all the 17 chairmanship seats. The real war is, however, coming in September when the party is expected to choose new state exco.
Mutfwang is said to be looking in the direction of the immediate past North-central zonal chairman of the PDP, Theophilus Daka Shan, to take over from Chris Hassan, a development that’s already creating ripples within the PDP.
Also in this discontent is the one coming from the Redemption Camp, the political platform governed by the numero uno, former Governor Jonah Jang, that gave Mutfwang the pedestal to contest the 2023 governorship election.
In the first place, this group complained that Mutfwang was not their choice for the election as they considered him an alien in the redemption. Apart from his short-lived tenure as chairman of Mangu Local Government Area, which was cut short by former governor Simon Lalong, Mutfwang was quietly plying his trade as a lawyer in Kaduna before he jumped into the governorship race.
This camp, apart from complaining that he was imposed on them, they accused him of neglecting them in the scheme of things.
A member of this camp who spoke to our correspondent on the condition of anonymity summed up their frustrations: “When we go to him, he will tell us that he would not want to interfere in the affairs of the administration, but we know how those very close to him benefitted from the same administration.”
For Mutfwang contesting under the APC is like bathing with water from a pit toilet. In any case, the APC appears to have its candidate already in Nentawe Yilwatda Goshwe, the current minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Sunday Biggs, a retired permanent secretary in the Plateau State civil service.
Biggs, described as a loyal and dedicated civil servant, served in various capacities during the Joshua Dariye, Jonah Jang and Simon Lalong administrations.
Indeed, he showed a very strong showing during the primary election that produced Nentawe as the governorship candidate before he was defeated in the 2023 governorship election by Mutfwang.
The recent appointment of Nentatwe as a minister was said to be in the direction of empowering him for the task ahead.
Biggs, however, is said to have a larger followership in both the APC and PDP because of his calm mien, humility and dedication.
Indeed, a coalition of PDP and APC members in the state is already wooing him as a possible replacement since he hails from the same Mangu local government area with the incumbent governor.
However, political watchers are of the opinion that replacing Mutfwang with either Nentawe or Biggs may not be politically expedient as it could alter the zoning arrangement of the state.
According to one analyst, “Mutfwang, Biggs and Nentawe are from the central zone and as politicians are wont to behave, Nentawe and Biggs may not agree to go for one term and this may create future problems for Plateau as it may torpedo the present zoning arrangement.
“But discussions are on. If we want another person to take over from Mutfwang, we may be looking for another Mwaghavul man, who will agree to rule for only four years and make way for the northern zone whose turn it will be in 2031”.
The APC, on the other hand, may be wary of having Mutfwang as its governorship candidate. A recent security survey, said to have discreetly conducted by the party, using the last local government election as benchmark, was said to have showed that Mutfwang may not be as popular as he is perceived to be.
The security reports were said to have indicated that the APC had won as many as 11 out of the 17 local government areas in the October 9 local government election in Plateau State.
However, Mutfwang still has his overwhelming support base and this will depend if he will continue to enjoy the support and confidence of former Governor Jonah Jang and his supporters. He still has a year to turn things around and woo back the support from the Redemption Camp.
Dachum Bagos, one of sacked lawmakers, who represented Bassa/Jos East federal constituency, believes that no other party can displace PDP in Plateau State.
In a recent chat with journalists, Bagos said: ‘For me, it’s not about running from PDP to APC and to make it look like we are all running into a one-party state. No. So we ask ourselves, why are people even defecting? I see it as trying to catch everybody into having a one-party state. PDP in Plateau has an ideology and it is the ideology of the people that the Mutfwang administration is pursuing and I don’t think APC has the same ideology. We must have a voice that we will be able to address the issues affecting Plateau.
However, his counterpart, Bitrus Kaze, who represented Jos East/Jos South federal constituency, said that the PDP may not survive to contest the 2027 general election.
According him, Mutfwang was just lucky to be on the seat by some unexplained judicial arithmetic, stressing that though Mutfwang may be pretending to be in PDP, all his body languages showed that his soul and spirit are in APC.
He said: “In the midst of this confusion, one cannot say for sure what happened behind the scene to allow a system where the governor alone is in the ruling party while all members of the state assembly are in another party. In fact, it beats my imagination that while the majority are in the APC, the governor is comfortable with that members of the APC in the house of assembly are also comfortable with a one-man member party being the Speaker of the house. It can only mean that many things happen behind the scene within the administration that we do not know, but what we know, what we see is that there is a myth, there’s political myth on the Plateau that can only come about when people have compromised nothing else.”
But there is still one alternative open to Mutfwang: To adopt the Senator Pam Dachungyang option.
After the PDP was disqualified to participate in the re-run election for Plateau North, the party, to avoid APC winning the election, quickly and within 24 hours rallied round relatively unknown African Democratic Party (ADP), whose candidate, Pam Dachungyang, subsequently won the election.
Will Mutfwang choose another platform other than PDP or APC? Will he join the emerging coalition? Only time will tell.