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By Chinenye Anuforo
Newly introduced Stears Approval Rating (SAR) has revealed that 42 per cent of Lagosians are pessimistic and worried that President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies may not strike the right cord as opposed to about 32 per cent that said they were optimistic about the country’s economic direction.
The SAR also showed that, despite multiple policy changes, Tinubu’s policies have received twice as many approvals from respondents compared to those of the previous administration.
Stears conducted a statistically significant, state-wide poll to understand public sentiment in the wake of a storm of policy reforms implemented by the current administration. The inaugural Stears Approval Rating sampled 519 respondents across Lagos’ 20 local government areas.
The SAR is built from responses to 25 questions about socioeconomic policies, living conditions, institutional trust and voter status. Interviews were conducted in English, Pidgin, and Yoruba, and lasted an average of 10 minutes.
“After Stears’ proprietary estimation model correctly predicted the outcome of the 2023 presidential elections, we wanted to continue to build on the application of data in governance and beyond. Particularly, we’re excited about how the SAR captures subtle fluctuations in consumer sentiment,” explained Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Economist at Stears.
Senior Governance Analyst, Joachim MacEbong, expressed the importance of paying attention to the survey results.
He stated, “The Stears survey offers a valuable glimpse into the concerns of Nigerians and it is clear that urgent action is needed to ease the cost burdens on citizens.
Our poll showed that 42 per cent of Lagosians are pessimistic while 32 per cent said they were optimistic about the country’s direction.”
When asked what they think of the social and economic policies of both the current administration and the immidiate past Buhari administration, only 12 per cent approve of the previous administration’s policies, while 50 per cent disapprove. The 50 per cent disapproval of the previous administration’s policies indicates its policy missteps.
The removal of the petrol subsidy, which saw Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) go from N185/litre to N490/litre in Lagos overnight, is less popular. 58 per cent disapproved, with only 32 per cent approving of the decision. Stears completed data collection before the increase from N490/litre to N568/litre.
Based on the data collected for the Stears Approval Rating, the survey built three indices; The Approval Rating Index spotlights the public’s approval of implemented and potential future policies.
Stears Confidence Score gauges trust in institutions, which is essential for mobilising citizens, and finally,, the Consumer Expectations Index is used to track how optimistic consumers are about the future, indicative of their future spending.
71 per cent of respondents believe they will live better in a year.
Stears used responses to questions about future expectations and Nigeria’s direction to construct the Consumer Expectations Index. Most (59 per cent) feel worse off than they did a year ago.
The silver lining is that 71 per cent of respondents think they will be doing better in a year.
“We used a normalised scale of 0 (low expectations) to 100 (high expectations), and the Consumer Expectations Index score was 63. This index is designed to inform decision-makers about how optimistic consumers feel about the future.
What we have done in Lagos lays the groundwork for more comprehensive indices that we plan to build from our data collection efforts in Africa soon. We continue to demonstrate how business leaders and policymakers alike can use data to understand what comes next before it happens,” said Yvette Dimiri, Director of Stears Insights.
