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From Charity Nwakaudu, Abuja
The Grassroots Mobilisation Initiative (GMI) has predicted that divisions among opposition parties and voting patterns across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones could shape the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
The group, which supports President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid, argued that the opposition’s failure to forge a united coalition could weaken its challenge to the incumbent.
GMI National Coordinator, Samaila Musa, stated this in a political assessment of the emerging electoral landscape, pointing to Tinubu’s alliances across the country as a potential advantage for the ruling party.
The group examined the political dynamics in the South-West, South-East, North-West, North-East and North-Central, highlighting potential competition among opposition figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Musa said the fragmentation of opposition votes across the regions could make it difficult for any opposition candidate to build the national support required to challenge Tinubu.
“Following a nationwide evaluation of political dynamics across all six geopolitical zones, GMI highlights that political realities on the ground, coupled with a divided opposition, make an opposition victory mathematically impossible,” he said.
On the South-East, Musa argued that Atiku could struggle to retain the region as a major electoral base, citing Obi’s political influence and the position of governors in the zone, whom he claimed largely support Tinubu’s second-term bid.
He also described the South-West as a stronghold of the president, while predicting that Kwankwaso’s performance in Kano, Jigawa and Katsina could divide opposition votes in the North-West.
According to him, such a split could weaken Atiku’s support in the region and complicate efforts to consolidate opposition votes nationwide.
On the North-East, Musa said the contest could involve Atiku, Vice-President Kashim Shettima and governors in the region, most of whom he claimed belong to the ruling party.
He added that competing political interests in the North-Central could further complicate the opposition’s efforts to build a winning coalition.
“History has proven that Northern votes alone cannot produce a president. Former President Muhammadu Buhari attempted this strategy multiple times without success; it was only after forging a solid alliance with Bola Ahmed Tinubu and securing Southern support that he won in 2015,” Musa said.
He maintained that presidential candidates needed broad national support rather than relying on votes from a single region.
Despite its criticism of the opposition’s prospects, GMI said it welcomed the participation of all candidates, including Obi and Kwankwaso, in the election, insisting that voters should have the opportunity to assess their programmes and records.
The group also disclosed that it had activated its grassroots mobilisation structures across the country’s 774 local government areas ahead of the election.
Musa attributed Tinubu’s prospects, as assessed by the group, to the administration’s economic policies, structural reforms and political alliances across the country.
“The political writing on the wall is plain for all to see,” he said, arguing that divisions among opposition parties could affect their ability to mount a coordinated national campaign.
He added that GMI would continue its grassroots mobilisation efforts in support of the president’s re-election bid.
The group’s projections, however, represent its political assessment as a supporter of Tinubu, rather than an established outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
