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By Omoniyi Salaudeen
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is currently at a critical juncture in its radical transformation from a third force alternative into the primary vehicle for a massive opposition coalition aimed at the 2027 elections.
Amidst the high-stakes transition-cycle characterised by early election fever, Peter Obi finally announced his full membership of the party on December 31, 2025, setting in motion intense power dynamics that will determine its future success or failure as a formidable opposition. He declared the choice of party in Enugu during a special event organised by South-East stakeholders from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the All Progressives Grant Alliance (APGA)
Over the last few months, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) had been hesitant in taking a firm stand on his membership of the ADC. His formal declaration ends the prolonged speculations about his political direction for 2027. With the combined influence of prominent figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and Nasir El-Rufai—who bring strong regional followings and national recognition—the party is no longer the quiet underdog. It has become a high-stakes arena where three distinct power blocs are clashing for control ahead of the presidential primary. Ultimately, the coalition finds itself at a perilous crossroads where individual ambition threatens to overshadow collective purpose.
Competing power blocs
While Atiku’s camp insists on his candidacy, citing President Tinubu’s administration as a national liability that only a seasoned veteran can repair, Peter Obi’s supporters—buoyed by his official move to the ADC—advocate him as the only credible alternative. Meanwhile, the so-called strategic bloc led by Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi remains a potent wild card, emphasising structural reform over individual ambition and creating a three-way collision course for the party’s presidential ticket.
A former Chairman of the People Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos, Tunji Shelle, speaking with Sunday Sun, confirmed the differences among the emerging power blocs. He said: “Politics is a game of interest. The individuals that have shown interest are well known to us. The contending forces are strong and viable enough to represent the interest of the party. But they all have different attitudes, different style and different dispositions. The area where they come from, the region, the religion and the state will likely play a major role in what they become.”
Fear of implosion
The coalition aims to repeat the 2015 alliance that culminated in the formation of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the ultimate defeat of incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. However, with the seemingly irreconcilable differences among the leading coalition figures, ADC faces the risk of an implosion if the contenting forces fail to agree on a consensus arrangement.
The clash isn’t just about the ticket; it’s about the soul of the party. Atiku, a perennial contender, feels he is owed the slot as the most experienced. Obi prides himself as the only one with clean hands. El-Rufai/Amaechi boast they are the only ones who truly understand how to dismantle the APC from the inside. This dilemma is further compounded by intense ego-tussle among the three blocks, as each contender views his participation as the key to the coalition’s success.
The party’s ability to navigate these dynamics will determine its success in 2027. If this ego-tussle remains unresolved, the party risks a catastrophic fragmentation, transforming its high-stakes arena into a theatre of self-defeat. Without a unified front, these three power blocs may inadvertently hand the 2027 election back to the incumbency—not for a lack of popular support, but for an inability to decide whose name should appear at the top of the ticket.
Standoff
While the full national primary schedule is being formalised by the National Working Committee (NWC), Atiku has officially stated that he will not step aside for any candidate. Even as he will be 80 this November, Atiku insists on taking another shot because he believes his established national network is the only force that can actually protect votes at the polling units.
Peter Obi’s supporters, on the other hand, view a consensus that results in Atiku as a return to the old status quo. They are pushing for an open primary where they believe Obi’s popularity will be undeniable, forcing the party’s hand.
The El-Rufai and Amaechi bloc, the All Democratic Alliance/ADA coalition within the ADC, is wary of both. They fear an open primary will just go to the highest bidder, and are pushing for a strategic consensus that balances Northern and Southern interests.
Debate is now raging among stakeholders as to which option will guarantee a rancour-free selection process. Tunji Shelle, in his own view, believes that a delegate option will serve the best interest of the party. He went further to outline some critical factors that will decide who picks the ticket. His words: “Both of them (Atiku and Obi) have agreed that whosoever picks the ticket will be supported. Everybody will rally round that individual. What will happen is that delegates will emerge and vote. Both of them believe in democracy, they will go to primary and whoever emerges will be congratulated.
“The leadership will ensure that the atmosphere is conducive for them to accommodate and accept each other. I don’t want to think about stepping down or stepping up. Once they don’t agree to step down for each other, definitely there will be a primary and whoever wins will be our presidential candidate. Somebody has to concede defeat at the end of the day. My wish is that they work together. The interest of the nation outweighs individual’s ambition.”
However, the National Coordinator of Obidient Movement, Dr Tanko Yunusa, in his conversation with Sunday Sun, unequivocally declared that Peter Obi must be on the ballot paper and win presidential election in 2027. “Our struggle is for him (Peter Obi) to be on the ballot and at the same time to win presidential election in 2027. And we are very unequivocal about it. We must support that particular agenda always.
“Our intent is to support Mr Peter Obi to run for the presidency of Nigeria. That is our resolve and we will continue to pursue that course.” This implies that the question of stepping down or being a running mate is not on the table for the Obident Movement.
Yet, analysts believe if the ADC leaves the ticket open, Atiku’s northern base and delegate-veteran status make him the favourite. If the party insists on a southern candidate to reflect equity, Peter Obi could shift the balance. The upcoming primary is less about a simple vote and more about a battle for the soul of the coalition.
According to them, if the ego-tussle leads to a split, having both Atiku and Obi on separate ballots would likely divide the opposition vote in the South and North, much like in 2023.
Leadership dilemma
The ADC leadership, led by Senator David Mark, is now caught in a strategic stalemate: they cannot afford to lose the ‘Obidient’ energy that Peter Obi brings, yet they are tethered to the traditional political machinery of Atiku Abubakar. Forced to choose between a populist revolution and establishment stability, the leadership is paralysed by the fear that any decision will result in a mass exodus that leaves the party a hollow shell before the first ballot is even cast.
Currently, Mark leadership is facing a legal dilemma due to internal disputes and court challenges. Some party members have approached the Federal High Court in Abuja, questioning the legitimacy of the interim leadership, citing constitutional breaches and improper appointments
The plaintiffs argue that Mark, Aregbesola, and Abdullahi’s appointments were unconstitutional and didn’t follow the party’s constitution. The suit seeks to nullify the appointments and restrain INEC from recognizing the interim officials. The dispute reflects deeper tensions within the party, with some members opposing Atiku Abubakar’s presidential ambition.
While INEC has officially recognised David Mark’s leadership, internal factions, including loyalists of former chairman Ralph Nwosu, have challenged the legality of the new coalition-friendly NWC. Every decision the leadership makes is currently scrutinized for bias toward either Atiku or Obi.
In another twist, Peter Obi’s formal registration was immediately disowned by a faction within the party. This puts David Mark in the position of having to police his own party while trying to welcome its most popular potential candidate.
Give and take option
In the current political scenario, the ADC is at a breaking point. While the party has successfully branded itself as the Grand Alliance against President Tinubu, the inability to bridge the gap between Atiku’s veteran machinery and Obi’s populist movement has created a high-risk scenario.
Atiku Abubakar brings the massive financial and logistical machinery needed to fight the APC, but accepting his dominance risks turning the ADC into a coalition disarray. The ADC’s ability to navigate these challenges will impact its viability as an opposition force in the 2027 elections.
In the interest of survival of ADC as a viable opposition, Shelle suggested an arrangement where Atiku and Obi can work together as a formidable force. However, he was not categorical about how to appease the two sides with the political solution he suggested. “Peter Obi’s declaration for ADC at last is a welcome development. He has been part of the coalition all along. We are only using ADC as a political platform but the coalition is the real thing. And many people belong to it.
“There are two major contenders-Peter Obi, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. I want to see them as people who want to work together. If they agree to work together, ADC will be a very strong party.
“I don’t want to say one is better than the other. I don’t want to say one has a better chance. Each of them has one limitation or the other. But if they combine their strength, definitely ADC will be a party to beat in 2027. They don’t necessarily have to subsume each other’s ambition but a political solution is possible,” he opined.
Ultimately, different scenarios are likely to play out, each with its own consequences. If the party proceeds with an open primary, the ego-tussle will reach its peak.
The consequence is that Atiku will use his deep-rooted delegate network, while Obi relies on public pressure and his moral mandate. In the end, the winner takes the ticket, but the loser likely leads a mass exodus back to their former party or forms a new faction. This would effectively split the opposition vote, mirroring the 2023 election results and likely handing a walkover victory to the APC in 2027.
Who blinks first?
The question of who blinks first has become the ultimate test of the opposition’s survival. Neither of the two giants has shown any sign of backing down. Atiku has arguably the least incentive to blink. He has explicitly stated that he will not step down for anyone. This is his final chance to secure the presidency, and he believes his national structure is the only thing that can match the APC’s ground game. Will he blink? Unlikely. Atiku is playing the seniority card, believing that the party leadership will eventually choose experience over momentum.
Obi too is under immense pressure from the Obidient Movement not to blink. His supporters view any compromise that places him as a Vice President or a junior partner as a betrayal of their reformist agenda.
Will he blink? Highly Unlikely. Obi’s power comes from his perceived moral purity. Stepping down for a traditional politician like Atiku would likely dismantle his youth-driven base, leaving him with a title but no army.
The founding National Chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Chief Chekwas Okorie provided an insight into the possible outcome of Obi’s political exploit, declaring that the former presidential candidate of the Labour Party actually has a chance of picking the ADC ticket.
Said he: “David Mark, who is the Chairman, has said it repeatedly that their convention will be a credible convention and that they are not going to zone their presidential ticket to any part of Nigeria. That simply means that it will be thrown open.
“In politics, 24 hours is too long. There is a new logic coming from the North West, which I will call caliphate of the Nigeria political class. And it is that the best thing to do is to allow the South to complete its eight years tenure. They are also united that President Tinubu must not be allowed to do another term of four years. There is no doubt that those supporting Atiku are still there. But there is a possibility there will be a tilt of delegates, especially from the North West toward a Southern candidate. So far, there are only two prominent Southern candidates-Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi.
“If that is so, Peter now stands a chance of flying the ADC flag. If Atiku decides to be a candidate, that will disrupt the unwritten rotation of presidency between the North and the South. How the electorate will react to that is now left for 2027 election to determine. But I doubt if disrupting the eight-year tenure of Southern presidency will be attractive. As a matter of fact, they may be playing into the hand of President Tinubu because there will be resistance to Northern disruption. And that may be in favour of Tinubu if Atiku and Obi fly their different tickets. Besides, there is a new wave of defection to the ADC,” Okorie said.
For Yunusa, the only way to ensure stability within the coalition is to allow a southern President to complete the eight-year tenure of the current dispensation. “We want the party to realise and know also that for us to win an election, we must consider the temperament of the country with a southern presidency at the moment and Mr Peter Obi in angling to conclude that particular southern presidency.
“The North has served for eight years, the South also must complete eight years. It is on that premise that we want the party to look into the issue. That will help us to hold a successful primary with any method we want to adopt,” he stated.
Analysts are increasingly discussing a scenario where nobody blinks, leading to a fractured primary. If this happens by mid-2026, the ADC will have successfully built the Grand Alliance only to watch it collapse under the weight of the very egos that created it.
Right now, many analysts are of the view that the convergence of Atiku Abubakar’s unyielding ambition and the Obi group’s no-compromise stance has effectively turned the ADC into a political pressure cooker.
