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By Omoniyi Salaudeen
Ahead of the official commencement of campaign activities, political battles that will determine the voting pattern in the 2027 general elections, particularly in the North, are gradually taking shape. This borders on the struggle between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the emerging opposition coalition centred around Atiku Abubakar and some leading political actors’ new affiliation with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), aiming to capture the substantial votes that hitherto previously went to the late former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Leveraging his cult-like following, Buhari, throughout his presidential attempts, consistently garnered massive support from Northern Nigeria, polling 12 million votes due to his perceived integrity, anti-corruption stance, and regional affinity. Having passed on, the struggle to fill the vacuum has intensified significantly between key political actors in the region, notably Atiku and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, hoping to inherit this significant bloc of votes.
While some pundits believe no single candidate can capture all of it, key actors are making frantic efforts to inherit a substantial portion of it to serve as a game-changer. Relative to the newly adopted ADC, the APC, as the ruling party, has the power of incumbency, federal resources, and a widespread party structure to achieve the target.
As part of the strategies for his re-election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is actively working to consolidate and expand his influence in the North. If the status quo is sustained, Vice President Kashim Shettima, who is seen as the leader in his Borno, North East, home state, will play a critical role in leading this northern network. Shettima’s direct engagement in the North is essential in mobilizing support and demonstrating the administration’s commitment to the region.
The recent election of Professor Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda (North Central, Christian) as the APC National Chairman is also strategic. This move aims to balance the party’s top leadership, appeal to Christian populations in the North, and strengthen the party’s grassroots mobilization in the crucial North Central zone, which is part of the broader Northern political landscape.
Additionally, the APC administration will likely leverage the on-going and planned projects and policies in the North, hoping to show continuity and deliver tangible benefits to the region.
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In this struggle, two things are likely to work for Atiku: his experience and knowledge of the terrain of northern politics. As a veteran politician and a hardy perennial contender, who has contested the presidency multiple times, he has a significant following and political structures to wit and understands the political terrain deeply. His decision to dump the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for ADC is seen as part of a larger strategy to form a formidable opposition coalition, including figures like Peter Obi (Labour Party), Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi. The aim is to present a united front against the APC.
The Atiku-led ADC will also try to capitalize on any perceived disaffection with the APC government, economic hardships, or unfulfilled promises in the North. They will present themselves as a credible alternative capable of delivering better governance. As part of the measures to actualise his ambition, Atiku has been engaging with key Northern figures and communities, including visiting Buhari’s family just days after his passing, to test the water and potentially win over his former rival’s supporters. By bringing together various opposition figures under the ADC umbrella, he intends to create a new narrative of unity and strength that can appeal to voters seeking a departure from the status quo.
The Northern states, with their large voter populations, will undoubtedly be the primary battleground for the 2027 presidential election. Both the APC and the Atiku-led ADC will deploy significant resources, political machinery, and strategic messaging to win over these crucial votes, making the struggle for Buhari’s legacy votes one of the defining features of the upcoming political cycle.
However, pundits have expressed doubts as to whether or not any candidate can build a tangible structure around Buhari’s so-called 12 million votes, which is now seen as a myth that no longer exists in its previous form. This is considering that his popularity had waned significantly before his passing due to the perceived poor performance of his administration. One of the major criticisms of the Buhari administration was the state of the Nigerian economy, including high inflation, rising unemployment, multiple currency devaluations, and the general increase in the cost of living, which significantly impacted ordinary Nigerians. Critics argue that these economic realities eroded the goodwill he once enjoyed, even among his core supporters.
Secondly, despite campaigning on a promise to tackle insecurity, Nigeria experienced a significant escalation of various security challenges under his watch, including banditry, kidnappings, farmer-herder clashes, and persistent Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency. Many felt that the government’s response was inadequate, leading to widespread frustration and fear, even in his traditional strongholds.
Despite being in power during the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu’s margin of victory was significantly smaller, and the total votes garnered by the APC were fewer than Buhari’s 2015 and 2019 figures. This is often cited as evidence that the “Buhari effect” or his personal vote bank had already diminished even before his death. Besides, many politicians from the North who previously rode on Buhari’s popularity struggled or lost in 2023, suggesting that his endorsement no longer guaranteed victory. Even before his passing, it was quite doubtful that he could influence electoral victory the way he used to.
Notwithstanding, his name and legacy still hold symbolic value for a segment of the Northern electorate, which opposition parties like the ADC and the ruling APC will continue to try and tap into. The fact that political figures are still visiting his family after his passing underscores this symbolic weight. While Buhari retained a loyal base, the broad, cross-sectional appeal that delivered such massive numbers in 2015 and 2019 had indeed diminished. The struggle for those votes in 2027 is precisely because they are now largely fragmented and up for grabs, rather than being a single, transferable bloc.
