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His pride is always stronger than his recognition of his Achilles heel. He views admitting the truth as a sign of weakness. His grasp of what leadership entails in turbulent times is wrapped around self. He seems to enjoy playing fast and loose with the facts. He views political opponents as no equals. He sees the presidency as his entitlement, a prize to be won, not necessarily a duty to do. He anchors this entitlement mentality on the premise that he had for years played the role of a “kingmaker” , and now, it’s his turn to be the “King”. That’s not the stuff of leadership. According to him, to be President has been his life ambition. He claims he has the “vision and capacity” to be President.
His band of supporters are always ready to die for him if that is what it will take to make him the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. They cite his performance as Governor of Lagos state as his greatest accomplishment. They swear he will replicate that at the Federal level. But many see that comparison as superficial, like oversimplifying complex issues. In all his claims, note this: As Daniel foretold, this King of the South will prepare himself for the war with an “exceedingly large and mighty army, but he shall not stand…”(Daniel 11:25). for what matters most, the interest of the nation must come before personal considerations. The question in the 2023 President election is not really who has a better vision of Nigeria. It’s who will act to make the vision a reality. As another campaign season will officially begin in the next three weeks, the Presidential candidates are crafting their campaign strategy. What will be their most important theme? Under this umbrella are policies and programmes that each candidate and his party want the campaign to emphasize. These are realistic objectives for the next four years. For example, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi has already developed a campaign strategy, and a theme: “Take back your Country” Under this umbrella, he has developed strategy on how to fix the myriad problems facing the country, make the youths take the mantle of leadership, make production rather than consumption the economic base that will spur employment, health, tame poverty, check insecurity, inflation, reduce national debt and restore confidence in government and its institutions. His philosophy of governance is resonating across the country and beyond. His supporters say it’s a movement which time has come.
I am particularly looking forward to what will be Tinubu’s campaign theme, the record he will run on? Will be it “Continuity”? Remember he had boasted he made Buhari President. Will he continue from where Buhari stops? It’s something he said he would do, even though he seems retracting. Or will the theme of his campaign be: “Change Rebranded”, or “Trust”? Note: Trust is not having to guess what a candidate means. It means leveling with the people before the election, about what he realistically intends to do after the election should he be the winner. Can Tinubu be trusted? Will he be different from the man he claimed he made President? Nigerians want a President who will be honest with them, someone who will not deceive them as APC under the leadership of President Buhari has done over the last seven years. Early warnings are already here. As the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Matthew Hassan Kukah told Arise News last week, Nigerians have understood they were lied to in 2015 and “we have seen the consequences” of religious manipulations”. He said the passion that drove people during the 2015 election has dissipated” I have been thinking how APC and its presidential candidate will wage a winning national campaign and convince Nigerians to give it another mandate in 2023. President Muhammadu Buhari will not be on the ballot, but the record of his 8 years in power will resonate. Questions such as these will be asked: what’s APC record of performance to warrant another four years for Tinubu? Any steady progress in the country since it came to power in 2015? Any peace and public trust? Any improvement in security and welfare of the people? What about the state of the economy, better now or worse? What about corruption? Better now or worse?
Undoubtedly, the stakes are much higher this time round than they were in 2015 and 2019 elections. No campaign will be credible, acceptable and responsible without any record of performance that the people can see and feel. It’s not unkind to say that the last seven and a half years of APC represent an awful lot of misery never seen before at least since after the civil war. And Tinubu is vicariously responsible for this mess. The Muslim/Muslim ticket of Tinubu/Shettima has further widened the fault lines that divide us. How will Tinubu campaign strategy convince the electorate that there’s nothing to fear in same faith ticket, and that the ticket deserves our trust?
The economy is also in its worst state ever. If Nigerians are ready for the truth simply spoken, about how our lives have been badly run these seven years, we need a change of leadership, but not a leadership of self-esteem and aggrandizement. We should no longer be governed by propaganda, lies and distortion of facts. The day of exaggerated lies may have passed. It’s time to talk about substance. It’s time to talk about leadership and character of our country and the vision of the future. In every one of these instances, the present administration has failed the people. In all the areas that the APC made promises, it has not delivered. Every aspect of our national life has been run down. Unemployment, inflation, poverty are surging. Check out the facts: According to data on the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 29, 2015, President Buhari inherited a foreign reserve of $28.6bn as well as $5.6bn NLGN dividend. Jonathan administration also left a total of $2.2bn in the Excess Crude Account (ECA). Almost all is gone now. This has been verified by the Ministry of Finance. Besides, in May 2015, President Buhari inherited an economy, which the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) described as the preferred destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa. It stood at $35.25bn. What has happened now? It has gone down to $11.55 between 2016 and 2020. Can Tinubu campaign distance itself from the woeful record of the Buhari presidency and make a headway in the North?
According to a recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Buhari government could only manage to attract $698.7 million of FDI last year, the lowest in ten years. Exchange rate has plummeted to almost N715/$1. It was N199/$1 in 2015. Unemployment rate is now over 35 percent, headline inflation has surged to 19.64 percent. Poverty rate is at its highest now, about 96 million. Where is the foundation the President promised in his 2020 New Year Letter to take a “100 million Nigerians out of mass poverty in the next 10 years”? According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), external debt stood at $7.73bn in 2015. Today, it’s close $41.6bn. Over 48 percent of these are bilateral and commercial loans. Domestic debt servicing has risen to over N2trn from N1.53trn recorded in the same period of 2020. Yet, the President is still on a borrowing binge. Default on repayment is looming with its unpleasant consequences. Who says “Change” hasn’t become a malaise or a curse? It’s a burden that the Tinubu Presidential campaign will find mightily difficult to extricate itself from.
