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In the build-up to 2027 presidential election, a roller-coaster of carpet-crossing known as ‘Tinubu Momentum’ stared on our eyes. The first of its kind in the political history of Nigeria. The high-profile nature of the defections never happened in any of the republics. The magnetic pull of decamping in droves to the ruling APC by the elites: Governors, Senators, Members of House of Representatives, and even some politically-exposed corporate players, defied bookmakers. Nobody saw it coming. The permutation was unthinkable for those who had bragged that the North holds the aces to the seat of power at Aso Rock Villa.
What is however, not in the public domain is whether the sudden acclimatization with ‘On your mandate we stand’ chorus was motivated by conviction, inducement, persuasion, outright threats, or by a trump card of classified information brandished by the anti-craft agencies, which could turn out a Pandora’s box, or, a dirt on the nose. Be that as it may, the gravitation towards APC got a recent balancer in the 3-month-old political party, National Democratic Congress (NDC).
While APC’s membership drive was largely elitist: those who have existing structures for dispensing selective generosity and seasoned politicians with experience of mobilizing votes with handouts, the NDC’s membership drive is self-propelling and organically-infused. The enthusiastic members are mostly young Nigerians who are desirous of fundamental change in public governance in the country. The ideology of the central figure, Mr. Peter Obi, resonates with them and they volunteered as his foot-soldiers. They believe in Obi’s preachment of cutting cost of governance and the mantra of “from consumption to production.” But not all of them are Obi’s disciples. There are opportunistic politicians who want to ride on Obi’s back again to clinch power like in 2023. And with the joining of forces by the grassroot politician and old horse from Kano State, Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, the ranks swelled unimaginably.
After ADC’s strategic blunder of operating without full disclosure, NDC became the next destination. The OK-Movement – a youth-driven, digitally-savvy and cult-like adherents of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, the likely presidential and vice-presidential candidates of NDC in the 2027 elections, moved in numbers to the party. Within hours, millions of people got registered online to beat the new Electoral Law’s deadline for submission of party register with INEC. As a matter of fact, OK-Movement was coined after the first letter of the surnames of the heroes: Obi and Kwankwaso. The move immediately sent shivers down the spine of those who took the ‘structureless’ Obi for granted. Political tacticians of both APC and ADC were forced back to the drawing board.
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A few questions agitated the mind. Why has the hitherto unknown NDC suddenly turn a beautiful bride? Was it kept in the cooler as a lifeline for Obi’s presidential ambition? Does it mean that Obi had a plan-B up his sleeves when he vehemently declared that he would be on the ballot? Was joining the ADC in the first instance a decoy, a sort of deception and surprise stratagem? Indeed, the political masterstroke of playing the underdog was akin to the self-preservative sense of eating with a long spoon when dining with the ‘devil’. Obi outsmarted them. He hit them below the belt. He did not fall for their humour of “when we get to the bridge, we will cross it.” Obi wanted from the outset to know how the bridge would be crossed. They kept dilly-dallying with the intent of handing him a surrender note when doors of all alternatives would have been permanently closed, legally speaking.
Indeed, Obi was ahead of the ‘opponents’ calendar. He took the rug off their feet with a clinical precision. And the unfolding developments are pointers to the fact that NDC has been his plan-B. The triumphant entry and the joyful reception of Obi and Kwankwaso by the national leader of NDC, Senator Henry Seriake Dickson, were more than a coincidence. They were well-thought-out. As a presidential hopeful with the highest street appeal, Obi knew that booby traps are lined up on his tracks. His movements were monitored like a prey marked for extinction by a predator. The zoning of the presidential ticket to the south during the last Saturday’s national convention in Abuja was another strategic pull off. It left no one in doubt that it had been the consensus from the get-go. And despite Kwankwaso’s usual hardline disposition on power rotation, he concurred. In the 2023 election, he refused to run with Obi. Today, it has become his lifeline of relevance in Kano State after the parting of ways with his political godson.
All eyes are now on NDC. The alliance of Obi and Kwankwaso who came third and fourth in the last presidential election has shaken the political landscape. Even the dusted up legal ambush in the court-ordered registration status of the party could not fly. INEC could not exhaust its right of appeal within 90 days and hence, the subsisting judgement cannot be appealed. They have resorted to throwing darts at Peter Obi. But he has a disarming way of dodging the bullets. It was followed by a charade by one Dr. Barry Avotu Johnson. He claimed that the “original founders and custodians of the true Obedient Movement Worldwide have resolved to reclaim the movement and return it to the people.” As shameless political herlings, they even claimed to have suspended Peter Obi and Yunusa Tanko. Nonsense!
In the coming days, NDC will face more internal destabilization threats by those who are thinking that ‘Obi Wave’ will work again. From a scientific standpoint, a wave can be contained, confined, and trapped. In social dynamics, it can also happen. The 2023 wave was possible because INEC made so much noise about life transmission of results to the extent that mischief makers did not go to work early. This time, the lacuna in the Electoral Act, will be exploited. But on a more serious note, NDC has raised the stakes. And it is vigilance that will preserve NDC’s votes.
