By Chukwuma Umeorah
Nigeria’s target of growing its economy to $1 trillion within the next few years is facing significant skepticism from economic experts, who warn that deep-seated structural challenges, now compounded by a new 14 per cent U.S. tariff on Nigerian exports threaten the country’s growth trajectory and trade viability.
Group Chief Economist and Managing Director at Afreximbank, Yemi Kale, while speaking at the 2025 Vanguard Discourse in Lagos on Wednesday, emphasized that for President Bola Tinubu’s administration to achieve its ambitious target, far more than political rhetoric or statistical adjustments would be required.
“To reach a $1 trillion economy by the end of this administration’s term, Nigeria would require annual growth rates in excess of 40 per cent —a pace that is virtually unprecedented and, under current conditions, simply unachievable,” Kale said. Even over a two-term horizon of six to eight years, sustained double-digit real growth would be necessary. He stressed that such a feat would be “immensely difficult” without transformative reforms.
The federal government’s vision, while symbolically powerful, hinges on overcoming persistent economic fragilities across all four pillars: the real, monetary, fiscal, and external sectors. Kale pointed to stubbornly low productivity in agriculture, where maize yields lag at 1.5 tons per hectare compared to a global average of 6–8 tons, coupled with 40 per cent post-harvest losses and climate vulnerability.
“Growth for its own sake is insufficient,” he argued. “What Nigeria needs is quality growth that is inclusive, equitable, job-creating, and resilience-building.”
Adding to domestic woes, the President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Kelvin Oye, while addressing the 14 per cent tariff recently imposed by the U.S., described it as a severe blow to an already strained economy. “This tariff directly jeopardizes enterprise growth and could precipitate job losses, particularly in our non-oil export sectors,” Oye warned in his opening remarks.
Oye, who is also the Chairman of the Organized Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), further decried the deteriorating state of Nigeria’s business environment, calling on the government to intensify collaboration with the private sector before implementing far-reaching policies.
“We appeal to the government to listen to us more before making policy changes. Sudden decisions—whether on taxation or trade—disrupt investment flows and weaken investor confidence,” he stressed.
Highlighting the importance of structural reforms, Oye pointed to critical areas such as infrastructure, rule of law, and education. “You can’t build a thriving economy without roads, without enforcement of contracts, and without investing in human capital. Education, infrastructure, law and order—these are the foundations,” he asserted.
With youth unemployment already exceeding 53 percent and inflation at 23.18 per cent as of February 2025, the tariff threatens to deepen Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, which Oye described as “a human emergency, not just a technical challenge.” Amid global tensions and protectionist policies from advanced economies, he called for Nigeria to diversify its trade relations.
“Instead of relying heavily on America, we should build new trade partnerships. There are opportunities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America we must explore,” he advised.
Despite the bleak outlook, Oye added, “We are serial optimists. Every challenge presents an opportunity. But we must act decisively and strategically,” urging the government to avoid repeating policy missteps of the past.
Meanwhile, other stakeholders during a panel session collectively suggested that beyond churning out policies, the government had to pay more attention to implementation. The CEO of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Tayo Aduloju, said that for Nigeria to witness significant economic development and compete globally, it must build on three major institutional pillars.
“We must have very strong political, economic, and social institutions. Poor quality of leadership and weak institutions are responsible for where we are as a nation today,” he stated.
On his part, the CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, decried Nigeria’s trade policy, which he believes stifles the growth of businesses and deters potential investments.
According to him, “We have a trade policy that seems to be centered mainly on revenue generation. This puts unnecessary pressure on businesses. The tariff regime in Nigeria is too high.”