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By Uche Usim
Trade between the United States and Nigeria shifted in America’s favour in the first ten months of 2025, with the US posting a $1.45 billion surplus in goods trade over the period.
This represents a dramatic reversal from a deficit position in the same period of 2024, powered by a surge in American exports amid weaker imports from Nigeria, according to data from the US Census Bureau.
Between January and October 2025, US goods exports to Nigeria rose sharply to $5.94 billion, while imports from Nigeria declined to $4.49 billion. The shift produced a positive trade balance of $1.45 billion in Washington’s favour, a clear contrast to the $1.367 billion deficit recorded during the corresponding months of 2024.
The reversal reflects a decisive change in bilateral trade flows, underlining Nigeria’s growing significance in reshaping America’s trade position in Africa and highlighting evolving commercial dynamics between both countries.
The trend was evident both on a cumulative basis and in monthly performance. In October 2025 alone, the US recorded a $162 million trade surplus with Nigeria, exporting $532 million worth of goods while importing $369 million. This exceeded the $116 million surplus posted in September, representing a month-on-month improvement of $46 million, or nearly 40%.
However, the widening surplus was not driven by rising monthly export volumes. Between September and October, US exports to Nigeria declined by $124 million, or 18.9%, while imports from Nigeria fell more sharply by $171 million, or 31.7%. It was this steeper contraction in imports that expanded the US surplus, despite lower export activity.
Year-on-year data further illustrates the magnitude of the turnaround. In October 2024, the US ran a $103 million trade deficit with Nigeria, exporting $295 million while importing $398 million. By October 2025, that position had flipped to a $162 million surplus. Over that one-year period, US exports increased by $237 million, or 80.3%, while imports declined modestly by $29 million, or 7.3%, indicating that export growth was the dominant driver of the shift.
On a cumulative basis, American exports to Nigeria jumped from $3.71 billion in the first ten months of 2024 to $5.94 billion in 2025, an increase of $2.23 billion or 60.2%. Imports moved in the opposite direction, falling from $5.07 billion to $4.49 billion, a drop of $582 million or 11.5%.
Nigeria’s turnaround has also played a critical role in shaping broader US-Africa trade dynamics. While the US still recorded a year-to-date goods trade deficit of $3.74 billion with Africa as a whole, Nigeria emerged as one of the few major African economies where the US posted a significant surplus.
Total US exports to Africa reached $34.08 billion in the first ten months of 2025, compared with imports of $37.82 billion. Nigeria accounted for $5.94 billion of those exports—about 17.4% of all US goods shipped to the continent—making it one of America’s most important African export destinations.
On the import side, Nigeria supplied $4.49 billion worth of goods, representing roughly 11.9% of total US imports from Africa. In October alone, Nigeria contributed about 15.6% of US exports to Africa and 12.8% of imports from the region.
More strikingly, Nigeria generated roughly 31% of Africa’s total US trade surplus for the month, underscoring its outsized influence on America’s continental trade position. Without Nigeria’s $1.447 billion year-to-date surplus, the overall US trade deficit with Africa would have widened to approximately $5.18 billion, meaning Nigeria offset close to 28% of America’s trade shortfall with the rest of the continent.
Among selected African partners, only Egypt delivered a larger surplus to the United States. Washington recorded a $5.43 billion surplus with Egypt in 2025, exporting $7.88 billion while importing $2.44 billion. Nigeria ranked second, ahead of Algeria and South Africa, both of which remained in deficit positions.
South Africa continued to exert a heavy drag on US-Africa trade, with a year-to-date deficit of $9.22 billion, as American imports of $14.67 billion far outstripped exports of $5.45 billion. Algeria recorded a $1.09 billion deficit, while other African countries combined were close to balance, posting a modest $299 million deficit.
The broader African trade picture also improved on a monthly basis. In October 2024, the US recorded a $467 million trade deficit with Africa. By October 2025, that position had swung to a $523 million surplus—a $990 million turnaround within a single year.
As with Nigeria, the improvement was largely driven by reduced imports. US imports from Africa fell from $3.48 billion in September to $2.89 billion in October, while exports eased slightly from $3.59 billion to $3.42 billion.
These shifting trade outcomes unfolded amid renewed protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies under US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing strategies and global trade flows. While the data does not explicitly link Nigeria’s trade performance to tariff measures, the surplus coincided with Washington’s implementation of a new “reciprocal” tariff regime that raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14% to 15%.
The executive order, signed in late July and effective from August 7, 2025, applies to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian exports, even as crude oil shipments have been largely exempted.
As trade balances continue to evolve, Nigeria’s growing contribution to America’s export performance and its expanding share of US-Africa trade suggest a shifting economic relationship—one increasingly shaped by export growth, changing import patterns, and the wider ripple effects of global trade policy.
