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The federal government’s ambition to grow the economy by seven per cent in 2026 is a lofty one.
However, it faces a major test of significantly swelling crude production volume, protecting critical oil facilities and turning increased earnings into jobs, better incomes and improved living conditions for citizens.
Although the country has recorded some improvements in economic stability, the benefits are yet to fully reach many households and businesses. High living costs, expensive energy, limited access to affordable credit and pressure on household incomes remain major concerns.
Against this background, the oil and gas industry continues to occupy a central position in Nigeria’s economic recovery. Crude oil remains a major source of foreign exchange and government revenue, making higher production and the protection of oil facilities important to the country’s growth ambitions.
Analysts believe that sustaining the security of oil pipelines and other facilities, alongside investment in exploration, infrastructure and industry reforms, will be necessary if Nigeria is to move closer to its growth target.
This places renewed attention on Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL), the private security company engaged by the federal government to protect oil assets in the Niger Delta.
Led by High Chief Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, Tantita works with other security agencies to prevent oil theft, pipeline vandalism and other illegal activities that have damaged Nigeria’s oil industry over the years.
The argument is that Nigeria cannot fully benefit from its oil resources if crude oil is stolen, pipelines are damaged and production facilities are constantly threatened.
Protecting these assets is therefore not just a security responsibility but also an economic necessity.
However, the extent to which the country can achieve seven per cent growth will depend on several factors beyond pipeline surveillance, including investment, productivity, government policies and the performance of other sectors.
Oil production most vital
Nigeria’s economic growth forecasts for 2026 vary, reflecting different expectations about the strength of the recovery and the risks facing the economy.
The World Bank projects growth of 4.4 per cent, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 4.1 per cent. PwC Nigeria estimates growth at 4.2 per cent, while the federal government’s target is around 4.68 per cent. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has expressed a more ambitious outlook of up to seven per cent.
Although the figures differ, they point to the importance of sustaining economic recovery and increasing activity across productive sectors.
For Nigeria, oil production remains particularly important because crude oil exports provide a substantial share of foreign exchange earnings. These earnings help the country pay for imports, support the foreign exchange market and strengthen its external reserves.
Higher oil production can also increase government revenue, providing more resources for infrastructure, healthcare, education and other public services.
When production falls because of theft, vandalism, technical problems or underinvestment, the consequences spread beyond oil companies. Government revenue can decline, foreign exchange supply can weaken and the pressure on the naira can increase.
Conversely, when more crude oil is produced and sold through legitimate channels, the country has a better opportunity to earn additional revenue and support economic activity.
This explains why the protection of oil infrastructure has become an important part of discussions about Nigeria’s economic future.
Analysts have stressed the need for sustained investment, expanded exploration and improved production capacity. They also argue that the government must maintain a clear framework for increasing output, developing reserves and ensuring that the oil industry contributes more effectively to national development.
But increasing production requires more than setting ambitious targets. Oil companies must be able to operate their facilities safely, move crude oil through pipelines and invest with greater confidence that their infrastructure will not be attacked or compromised.
This is where effective security arrangements become important.
Tantita’s role in protecting oil assets
The federal government’s engagement of Tantita to support oil asset protection in the Niger Delta was aimed at strengthening surveillance and tackling illegal activities that have affected the industry.
For years, crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have posed serious challenges to Nigeria’s oil production. Illegal connections, damaged pipelines and unauthorised activities have made it difficult to move crude oil safely from production fields to export terminals.
These problems have also raised environmental concerns, particularly where oil spills damage farmland, fishing grounds and waterways used by communities for their livelihoods.
Tantita’s operations, conducted in collaboration with other security agencies, are intended to help address these threats by monitoring pipelines, identifying suspicious activities and supporting efforts to prevent theft.
Since taking on a major role in pipeline surveillance in 2022, the company has maintained that its operations have helped improve security around oil facilities in the Niger Delta.
Its supporters argue that better protection of oil infrastructure has helped Nigeria move away from the repeated losses associated with widespread theft towards more predictable production and planning.
They also point to the importance of local knowledge in securing the creeks, waterways and communities where many oil facilities are located.
The Niger Delta’s difficult terrain can make surveillance challenging. The region has extensive waterways, remote settlements and areas that are not easily accessible by road. Effective monitoring therefore requires a combination of local knowledge, intelligence, technology and cooperation among security agencies.
Tantita’s Media Consultant and Special Adviser to its chairman, Dr Paul Bebenimibo, recently highlighted the company’s reported achievements while speaking on the sidelines of an award presented to it by Blueprint Newspapers for its contributions to pipeline security and national development.
According to Bebenimibo, the recognition reflected the company’s efforts to combat oil theft, pipeline vandalism and other illegal activities threatening the oil industry.
“Over the years, awards have been coming in, and that shows that Tantita is really doing the job very well,” he said.
He added that improved security in oil-producing communities had created a more favourable environment for legitimate economic activities, including fishing and farming.
Bebenimibo said the company remained committed to supporting efforts to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day.
He attributed part of Tantita’s approach to Ekpemupolo’s knowledge of the Niger Delta’s creeks and communities, which he said had helped the company develop strategies for monitoring oil infrastructure.
According to him, Tantita has also deployed drones to improve surveillance and identify illegal activities in the waterways.
“We have acquired drones that are now picking up every illegal activity that is going on in the creek,” he said.
The use of technology is important because oil theft and pipeline vandalism can be difficult to detect across a wide area. Drones and other surveillance equipment can help security teams identify suspicious movements and respond more quickly.
Nevertheless, sustained results will require continued cooperation between Tantita, government security agencies, oil producers and host communities. Transparent reporting of production gains, theft incidents and recovered facilities would also help the public assess the impact of pipeline surveillance.
From oil security to economic growth
The economic importance of protecting oil facilities goes beyond the immediate value of crude oil saved from theft.
A more secure operating environment can help oil companies plan production, maintain equipment and consider further investment. It can also reduce interruptions that affect the movement of crude oil and other petroleum products.
For the government, increased legitimate production can improve the potential for revenue collection. For businesses, stronger foreign exchange earnings may help ease some pressures associated with the scarcity and cost of imported goods and equipment.
However, these benefits are not automatic. Additional oil revenue must be managed responsibly, while production gains must be supported by sound fiscal policies, investment in infrastructure and measures that encourage growth in other sectors.
This is particularly important because Nigeria’s economic challenges cannot be solved by oil alone.
A country that depends heavily on crude oil remains exposed to changes in international prices, global demand and geopolitical tensions. A fall in oil prices can reduce earnings even when production rises.
The long-term objective must therefore be to use oil wealth to strengthen other parts of the economy, including agriculture, manufacturing, construction, technology and services.
For this to happen, the government needs to improve the business environment, reduce infrastructure bottlenecks and make it easier for productive businesses to obtain financing.
Oil security can provide part of the foundation for this wider economic effort, but it cannot replace the reforms required to create jobs and raise living standards.
Economic gains yet to reach many households
PwC Nigeria’s assessment of the country’s economic outlook for the second half of 2026 points to improvements in several areas, including foreign exchange stability, inflation, external reserves, government revenue mobilisation and capital inflows.
The report, titled *Unlocking Nigeria’s Reform Dividend: From Macroeconomic Stabilisation to Inclusive Growth*, was discussed by PwC Partner, Chief Economist and Lead Strategy for West Africa, Olusegun Zaccheaus; Partner, Clients and Market Leader for West Market, Pedro Omontuemhen; and Director, Akolawole Odunlami. The report noted that Nigeria entered the second half of the year in a stronger macroeconomic position, although significant challenges remained.
According to the assessment, real gross domestic product grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by information and communications technology, finance and insurance, construction, and agriculture.
Headline inflation moderated to 15.91 per cent in June, while the naira traded at about N1,379.68 to the dollar. Gross foreign reserves rose by 38.3 per cent year-on-year to $51.46 billion in June.
These developments suggest that some of the government’s economic reforms are helping to improve stability and strengthen confidence in the economy.
However, the report warned that household affordability remained under pressure, financing conditions for private businesses were still tight and economic growth remained concentrated in a relatively small number of sectors.
External risks, including geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices and weaker global growth, could also affect the pace of recovery.
The central challenge, therefore, is to ensure that improvements in economic indicators translate into better living conditions.
For ordinary Nigerians, economic recovery is meaningful when food becomes more affordable, transport costs decline, businesses expand and more people find decent-paying jobs.
In this regard, protecting oil assets and increasing production should be viewed as part of a broader economic strategy rather than an end in themselves. If higher production generates additional revenue and foreign exchange, the government must ensure that the benefits support productive investment, essential services and policies that improve household welfare.
Energy costs remain major concern
The cost of energy is another reason oil production and the wider petroleum industry matter to Nigeria’s economic outlook.
High fuel and energy prices affect nearly every part of the economy. Transport operators pay more to move passengers and goods, manufacturers spend more on power and logistics, while households face higher costs for cooking and other daily activities.
PwC’s assessment noted that energy prices increased significantly year-on-year in April 2026. Diesel prices rose by 43.67 per cent, kerosene by 34.12 per cent, petrol by 23.69 per cent and liquefied petroleum gas, commonly called cooking gas, by 10.43 per cent. Higher diesel and petrol prices increase transport, distribution and business operating costs. Rising kerosene and cooking gas prices place additional pressure on household budgets.
Although protecting crude oil pipelines will not automatically reduce pump prices, improved security can support more reliable crude oil production and reduce losses in the supply chain.
Nigeria must also improve domestic refining, petroleum distribution and energy infrastructure to reduce avoidable costs and strengthen supply.
Expanding domestic refined-product supply and removing distribution bottlenecks could help moderate some pressures, while a more stable foreign exchange market would reduce the impact of exchange rate movements on imported inputs.
The wider lesson is that oil sector improvements must be connected to policies that make energy more available and affordable for households and businesses.
Youth employment and community support
Security operations in the Niger Delta also have a social dimension.
In communities where unemployment and limited economic opportunities persist, some young people may be tempted by illegal activities that promise quick earnings. Tackling oil theft therefore requires both effective law enforcement and efforts to create legitimate sources of income.
Bebenimibo said Tantita had placed considerable emphasis on youth employment, skills acquisition and support for businesses in host communities.
He disclosed that more than 60,000 youths were employed by the company and paid monthly.
“Tantita is not just employing the youths. It is also giving them skills and promoting their businesses in the area by giving grants to youths, women and men,” he said.
If sustained and properly managed, such initiatives can help young people develop useful skills, earn incomes and participate in legitimate economic activities.
They may also help build trust between security operators and local communities, whose cooperation is important for identifying threats and protecting infrastructure.
However, the scale and long-term impact of such programmes should be assessed through transparent information on employment, training, grants and the businesses supported.
Community development must also extend beyond direct employment by a security company. Investments in schools, healthcare, roads, clean water and environmental restoration are necessary to improve living conditions in oil-producing areas.
For communities that have experienced pollution, damaged livelihoods and years of insecurity, the protection of oil assets should go hand in hand with efforts to ensure that oil wealth delivers visible benefits.
Bebenimibo also highlighted Tantita’s relationship with the media, saying the company had built a correspondents’ secretariat in Delta State and planned to extend similar facilities to other Niger Delta states, alongside a facility for journalists at the national level.
He described journalists as important partners in communicating the company’s activities and promoting transparency around its operations.
Such engagement can help improve public understanding, provided it allows for independent reporting, scrutiny and questions about the performance of security operations.
3m barrels a day by 2030
The wider oil industry also has its sights on significantly higher production in the coming years.
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has pledged to work with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to help unlock crude oil production of three million barrels per day by 2030.
PENGASSAN President, Bosun Olabiyi-Agoro, made the commitment during a visit to the commission’s headquarters.
According to a statement signed by NUPRC Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, Olabiyi-Agoro said the union was open to negotiations but regarded workers’ rights to freely associate and join the union as non-negotiable.
He also identified contract staffing as one of the key issues his administration would address.
The target of three million barrels per day highlights the scale of the work required to expand Nigeria’s oil production. It will demand investment in exploration and production, reliable infrastructure, effective regulation, industrial harmony and improved security.
Pipeline surveillance can help prevent theft and disruptions, but production growth also depends on the ability of oil companies to develop fields, maintain facilities, attract investment and operate under predictable rules.
The government and industry stakeholders must therefore address technical, financial, regulatory and labour-related challenges alongside security concerns.
Beyond the seven per cent target
Nigeria’s ambition to achieve seven per cent economic growth is an opportunity to refocus attention on the productive sectors that can create jobs, generate revenue and improve living standards.
Oil remains important to this effort because of its contribution to foreign exchange earnings and public finances. Protecting pipelines and other oil facilities can help reduce losses and support efforts to increase production.
Tantita’s role in the Niger Delta, according to the company and its supporters, has contributed to efforts to tackle oil theft and improve the security of critical infrastructure. Its reported investment in surveillance technology and youth employment also highlights the potential value of combining security operations with community engagement.
But the ultimate test is whether improved security leads to sustained production gains, higher public revenue, greater investment and better opportunities for Nigerians.
The government must ensure that additional oil earnings are managed transparently and directed towards productive uses. Oil companies must invest in capacity, while regulators, workers and host communities must work together to support stable operations.
At the same time, Nigeria must strengthen agriculture, manufacturing, technology and other sectors to reduce its dependence on crude oil.
Seven per cent growth will not come from protecting pipelines alone. It will require a coordinated effort to secure oil assets, raise production, attract investment, improve infrastructure and create an environment in which businesses can grow.
For Tantita, the challenge is to sustain effective and accountable operations. For the government, it is to turn oil wealth into broad economic benefits.
Ultimately, the success of Nigeria’s growth ambition will not be measured by barrels produced or reserves accumulated alone, but by whether the country’s economic gains translate into more jobs, lower business costs, stronger household incomes and a better quality of life for its people.
