Follow Us on Google
…Citizens demand services before compliance
By Chinwendu Obienyi
A growing number of Nigerians are willing to pay taxes if the government can demonstrate tangible improvements in public services, but widespread distrust in how tax revenues are managed threatens the success of the country’s latest fiscal reforms, according to a new survey by SBM Intelligence, released on Thursday.
The report, titled Taxing Patience: Nigeria’s Reform Resistance, found that more than two-thirds of Nigerians do not trust the government to properly utilise tax revenues. The findings highlight a major legitimacy challenge confronting President Bola Tinubu’s administration as it implements the 2025 tax reform Acts aimed at expanding revenue collection and strengthening fiscal sustainability.
Despite persistent scepticism, the survey reveals that public resistance to the reform is not primarily driven by the scale of new tax measures.
Instead, citizens appear open to taxation under certain conditions. According to SBM Intelligence, approximately three-quarters of respondents said they would be more willing to pay taxes if they witnessed visible improvements in critical public services such as electricity supply, road infrastructure, and security.
“The willingness to comply exists, but it is transactional,” the report noted, emphasising that citizens are increasingly linking tax compliance to measurable government performance.
The survey also exposed significant regional disparities in public perception of the reforms. In the Southwest, particularly Lagos, higher levels of awareness about the new tax laws correlate with stronger opposition.
Furthermore, about half of respondents in the region expressed negative views of the reforms, citing concerns about legislative transparency and fears that enforcement measures disproportionately target middle-class earners.
Other News
In contrast, distrust is even more pronounced in parts of Northern Nigeria. In Bauchi State, nearly four-fifths of respondents expressed scepticism toward the reforms. SBM Intelligence attributed part of this sentiment to geopolitical concerns, including public suspicion surrounding the government’s collaboration with French tax authorities, which some local stakeholders describe as a form of “digital colonialism.”
Highlighting compliance challenges within Nigeria’s large informal sector, the report said, “Many informal business operators reported that they already pay daily levies to non-state actors such as local unions and market associations. As a result, new government taxes are often perceived as an additional financial burden rather than a replacement for existing informal payments”.
Within the formal sector, recent policy changes lowering bank reporting thresholds have raised concerns among professionals and small business owners, who increasingly view the reform as targeting visible and compliant taxpayers while failing to adequately address revenue leakages elsewhere in the system.
As such, the geopolitical research and strategic communication firm have now warned that the success of the tax reform hinges less on technical policy design and more on the government’s ability to rebuild public trust.
The report describes the reform as a potential “tax swap,” in which citizens may accept higher or more structured taxation only if the state demonstrates that it can deliver better services than informal systems of revenue extraction.
While the Tinubu administration has established the institutional framework for modernising Nigeria’s tax regime, analysts say its long-term effectiveness will depend on visible improvements in governance outcomes.
Without demonstrable progress in service delivery, SBM Intelligence cautions that the reform risks deepening public frustration and undermining compliance.
“The reforms represent a high-stakes gamble on the government’s ability to rapidly bridge the trust gap through competent governance and visible results. Without this, a technically sound policy risks becoming a socially divisive and politically costly failure”, the report concluded.
