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The overthrow of President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan by the Taliban forces has amply demonstrated that groups with violent and extreme views can easily sack any government any day and anywhere, especially in third world countries where such fundamentalists abound and operate without much restraint. The Afghanistan tragedy has also shown that no power or weapon can easily destroy an ideology, especially extreme or radical ideology or what the concerned people believe to be the truth, irrespective of its contrariness.
The failure of America to impose its brand of democracy, promoted vigorously as the best form in the world, has again underlined the fact that for every form of government to succeed, be it democracy, theocracy, socialism, communism, authoritarianism, welfarism or what have you, it must be homegrown, it must be rooted in the peoples culture and so much resonate with the citizens. Perhaps this can explain why our democracy, imported wholesale from America without its basic tenets, has thoroughly proved unworkable despite the pretensions of our leaders and their cheer leaders.
Like in Vietnam, American political ideal of being the un-appointed policeman of the world, despite the manifest contradictions of Americansim, has again been repudiated in Afghanistan. The defeat of America in Afghanistan should serve as a useful lesson to some politicians in Africa who believe that America and Britain will fly in and fix their democracy. The Afghan debacle is a pointer that neither America nor Britain can fix Nigerian democracy. Fixing our nation and by extension our democracy must be done by all of us. No amount of miracle will do it.
China, where we rush to borrow without restraint, cannot fix our country for us, if the government likes, let it borrow all the money in the Mandarin country. No foreign country can build Nigeria for us. The fall of Afghanistan means that African countries, especially Nigeria and others in the Sahel region already grappling with years of insurgency orchestrated by groups such as Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Al-Shabab and others, must watch it.
The victory of Taliban forces in Afghanistan will likely embolden the terrorists to intensify their murderous attacks. This fear was rightly captured in a recent article in Financial Times by President Muhammadu Buhari following the triumph of Taliban in Afghanistan. With the incessant killings in Nigeria and brazen attacks on institutions of government by criminal elements across the country, Nigeria is indeed not too far away from Afghanistan. The height of such impudence was the recent attack on Nigeria’s elite military institution, the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA), Kaduna, by bandits. The humiliating aspect of the audacious attack was the killing of two army officers and abduction of army Major.
Those who think that our security challenges will soon be over with the way and manner the government is tackling it may either be dreaming or suffering from delusion. Our country is not too far away from Somalia, Sudan, and Czechoslovakia. With our widening fault lines and nepotistic tendencies of the ruling APC government, Nigeria is indeed steadily marching on the superhighway to Afghanistan. With bad governance and clannish policies of the government in power, the crisis ahead will be unimaginable.
Sordid events in the country are veritable signs, indices, pointers, and indicators that the Nigeria is bound to violence, due apologies to Yambo Ouologuem, the late Malian writer and author of Bound to Violence. The country is fast drifting apart if the government fails to retrace its faulty steps quickly. The signs that we are not too far away from national crisis of unimaginable proportion are there for all to see. It does not require the services of seers or fortune tellers for Nigerians to know that things are terribly bad.
Despite the foreboding scenario, our politicians are behaving as if things are normal. Does it come as a surprise to anyone that Governor Aminu Bello Masari of Katsina State, the home state of President Buhari, recently urged his people to defend themselves? Masari is not alone. Other prominent Nigerians have said similar things. What should bother our compatriots, if we still have any, is the anarchy that will arise if all citizens move to defend themselves. Those calling for the reintegration of repentant insurgents put at over 1,000 and even thinking of granting them amnesty must watch it.
With calls for self-defence coming from all parts of the country, Nigeria is on a fast lane to Afghanistan, and only the intervention of those who truly love the country can save the looming anarchy. The chaos in the country today is why many Nigerians are in doubt of holding the 2023 general election without first restructuring the country for all to live in peace. With Boko Haram insurgency raging fiercely in the North East region, Fulani herdsmen unleashing terror in some parts of the country, banditry, kidnapping, separatist agitations and others contesting Nigeria’s nationhood, the road to Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia is very near.
It may even occur earlier than anticipated. It is hoped that our leaders are reading the handwriting on the wall. There is no doubt that danger is lurking, agwo no na akirika. With rising hunger, starvation and extreme poverty in the land, it is not too hard to see why many Nigerians are lamenting on a daily basis and why the country is filled with agitations for self-determination. With the sharp opening of our natural fault lines, religion, tribe, nepotism, clannishness among others, it is absurd that the federal government is bent on opening more wounds with its resolve and insistence on reactivating some nebulous 368 open grazing reserves in 25 states of the country. This is coming on the heels of the ban on open grazing by 17 southern governors. This plan to give land to Fulani herdsmen in 25 states in the country, which if not resisted, may be extended to the other remaining states, is a recipe for war and disaster. It is good that Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State and most southern governors have vehemently opposed open grazing and its reintroduction by the federal government in any guise. At a time ranching is the best global practice for cattle rearing; it is unfortunate that the Nigerian government is fixated on non-existent grazing routes.
This obnoxious policy, if allowed to exist, will lead Nigeria to Afghanistan much earlier than many would think. Although President Buhari has hurriedly signed into law the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) without factoring the mounting complaints trailing it, there is no doubt that the grey areas will haunt the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). It is so sad that at a time most Nigerian highways are not motorable, the government is mooting the idea of reintroducing toll gates, which were dismantled by former President Olusegun Obasanjo administration over allegations of corruption among other reasons.
Since Nigerians are already victims of multiple taxation, why bringing toll gates at this point in time when the masses are suffering from extreme poverty. Over-taxation will only impoverish the citizens the more. Tolling the highways will always enrich those in government and their cronies. The poor masses will continue to suffer and remain poor if the little they have will be taken away and be given to the rich in the name of toll gates.
With the unresolved crisis of nationhood facing the country, it seems now that the only plausible solution is the restructuring of the country so that the regions or federating units can be given autonomy to manage their own affairs. That is the significance of the message by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar at a recent book launch in Abuja. Many Nigerians have come to believe that only restructuring will save the country from its journey to Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia.
