The Atiku effect and FG’s volte-face

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In a timely judgment seen as a reprieve to the coalition of opposition parties in Enugu State, the Federal High Court, Abuja, on the 8th October 2026, quashed the N150 million campaign billboards advertising fee imposed by the Enugu State Structures for Signage and Advertisement Agency (ENSSAA). The introduction of the unfair and exorbitant charge few months to the 2027 general elections has been interpreted as the incumbent’s sledgehammer to snuff life out of the opposition in the State. But the Court, in its wisdom, courageously widened the civic space by putting hammer in the works meant to annihilate dissent. By so doing, the court of law has shown that it can still act as the last bastion of virile democratic rule.

The same week, the opposition parties at the national level indirectly netted a goal in its relentless resolve to hold the APC-led federal government’s feet to the fire.  Though belatedly, the federal government, having lost tremendous mass appeal, has finally capitulated and rolled out a 30-day discount on price of petrol at NNPC filling stations. In this case, not minding that it would scarcely make any change, the arrowhead who turned up the heat is Atiku Abubakar, a veteran political strategist in all respects, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC’s) presidential candidate for the January 16, 2027 election. Without sentiment of partisanship, Nigerians should applaud Atiku for rising up to the occasion barely three weeks ago by calling them out to lower the price of fuel which had gone to the rooftop since March 2026. He urged Tinubu to borrow a leaf from his subsidy restoration proposal without necessarily acknowledging the source. “He should just take the idea. Rename it if he wishes, and even take the credit. What matters to me is that Nigerians pay less,” Atiku said.

The ADC presidential flagbearer continued his admonition thus: “When government makes energy expensive, it makes life expensive. This is no longer an argument between economists, it is the daily reality of millions of Nigerians…When workers, producers, marketers and ordinary families are all raising the alarm, government must listen…Leadership requires the humility to confront the consequences of policy and the courage to change course…Government celebrates GDP growth, higher revenues and bigger allocations. But Nigerians judge the economy by what their money can buy…The goods are there. The need is there. What is missing is the purchasing power.”

At the beginning of the global energy supply crisis occasioned by the US-Iran War, which led to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, Nigerans applauded the Dangote Refinery for ensuring product availability and relative affordability compared to other countries hit by the crunch. The domestic refining of petroleum products based on Naira-denominated supply of crude oil to Dangote significantly insulated Nigeria from the price surges in the international market. Hence, while other countries had either protective policies or palliatives to cushion the shocks, Nigeria didn’t do anything. In fact, over 90 countries across the world’s regions came up with varied measures: “national energy emergency” plans, limited oil imports, curbing of energy demands, reliance on their strategic reserves, by-passing of the chokepoint route, as well as initiation of energy diversification programmes. 

In Europe specifically, there have been short-term subsidies. For instance, energy VAT was cut by 11% in Spain; two, over 5 million low-to-middle income transporters  benefited from 100 euros fuel payout and winter energy vouchers in France; three, Germany implemented reduction of per litre price of petrol and diesel in favour of retail buyers and sellers; four,  until October 5, Italy had a state-backed tax cut on diesel fuel; and five, to cushion the rising energy and food costs, Hungary and Poland worked out blanket price caps as buffers to households. In Africa, while countries like South Africa, Gabon and Liberia exploited their friendly diplomatic relationships with Iran to obtain free passage for vessels and oil tankers linked to them, Egypt and Zambia differently put in place energy-saving measures and suspension of taxes that could escalate the rising fuel imports respectively.

But in Nigeria, the chicken finally came home to roost with the inability of NNPC to supply crude to Dangote Refinery in Naira with the aim of bringing down the rising pump price of petrol. This has further pitted the citizenry against the federal government. In defence, officers of government justified the unmitigated exposure to market forces provided the unprecedented statutory allocations keep flowing. Also, the country’s finance minister, Taiwo Oyedele’s explanation has further exposed the sleaze in the oil sector.  He said that the country cannot meet up with the supply of 700,000 bpd of crude oil to Dangote, as the 1.8 million daily output of crude has other commitments, including servicing of debt obligations tied to crude oil by previous government. Hence, with less than 100,000 free crude oil, which impliedly cannot be completely allocated to Dangote, it then means that the problem   is still far from over. The commonsense takeaway is that even the panic-driven 30-day discount on the price of PMS which they refused to call subsidy, would only scratch the symptom of a metastasized cancer.

The major concern however is the persistent lack of full disclosure which borders on corruption and vested interests. And for Pat Utomi, if our refineries are not freed from corruption and abuse, “This current NNPC fuel price reduction will be roundtripped, just like Buhari’s multiple exchange-rate…” He further averred that “If we consider purchasing power parity (PPP) and compare petrol prices in similar economies, we can rationally, morally, and economically justify lowering petrol prices…we can bring prices down to decent levels….”

As the debate continues, one undeniable fact is that opposition is good for democracy. The opposition keeps the government in power on its toes with alternative viewpoints. Imagine what Nigeria would have been if the nation does not have the likes of Atiku and Obi in the trenches! Therefore, Nigerians should consider those who have the blueprint to get the nation out of the woods. Let there be a revolution through the ballot box.

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