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By Lukman Olabiyi, Lagos; Bamigbola Gbolagunte, Akure; Laide Raheem, Abeokuta; Lateef Dada, Osogbo; and Taiwo Oluwadare, Ibadan
The South West has remained the electoral backbone of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. The region has consistently embraced progressive politics, evolving from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and ultimately the APC.
As preparations intensify for the 2027 general election, the APC still enjoys structural dominance across much of the region.
However, beneath the surface lies a far more competitive political environment shaped by defections, internal party rivalries, shifting voter behaviour and the growing influence of personalities over party platforms.
Opposition parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Accord Party (AP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Allied People’s Movement (APM) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), continue to make inroads in strategic areas, while younger voters are increasingly showing less attachment to traditional political structures.
The APC currently controls Lagos, Ogun, Ondo and Ekiti states, while opposition forces remain influential in Osun and Oyo through evolving political realignments. Beyond controlling government structures, the ruling party’s greatest strength remains its extensive grassroots network, built over more than two decades.
From ward executives to local government structures and influential political associations, the APC possesses one of Nigeria’s strongest mobilisation machines.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s enduring political influence across the South-West also remains a significant electoral asset. Yet political analysts argue that incumbency alone may no longer guarantee overwhelming victories. The 2023 presidential election demonstrated that organised voter mobilisation, particularly among urban youths, can reshape long-held political assumptions.
Lagos: APC remains dominant but faces changing voter behavior
Lagos remains the political stronghold of APC and the state with the highest concentration of registered voters in the South-West.
The ruling party continues to enjoy a formidable political structure anchored on an extensive grassroots network built over more than two decades.
However, the Labour Party’s victory in the 2023 presidential election in Lagos exposed cracks in what was once considered the APC’s impregnable dominance.
Propelled by the “Obidient” movement, young professionals, first-time voters and the urban middle class rallied behind the Labour Party to defeat the APC in the presidential contest, although the ruling party retained control of the state in the governorship election.
Since then, the Labour Party has struggled to sustain that momentum. Internal leadership crises have weakened the movement, while a number of its prominent members and elected officials have defected to other political parties, including the APC.
Despite these setbacks, political observers believe Lagos will remain one of the country’s most closely watched electoral battlegrounds ahead of the 2027 general election.
They argue that a growing number of younger voters are increasingly influenced by governance, economic realities and issue-based campaigns rather than traditional political loyalties.
Offering a contrasting perspective, APC chieftain, Obafemi George expressed confidence that President Tinubu would secure a convincing victory in the 2027 presidential election, citing the administration’s ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure investments.
According to George, the President’s policies are laying the foundation for sustainable economic growth through institutional reforms, improved infrastructure and long-term economic restructuring.
He maintained that Tinubu’s record as former governor of Lagos State demonstrated his capacity to implement transformative policies, adding that similar development strategies are now being replicated across the country.
George also pointed to major Federal Government infrastructure projects, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway and other strategic road networks, saying they would improve transportation, facilitate trade and strengthen economic integration across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.
Similarly, the South-West APC Youth Leader, Daramola Adesuyi, said the party was adequately prepared for future elections across the region.
He, however, stressed the need for stronger collaboration among political leaders and government officials to deepen youth mobilisation and participation in governance.
Adesuyi made the call during a consultation and familiarisation visit to the Senior Special Assistant to the Lagos State Governor on Youth Mobilisation, Alabi Opeyemi Oladimeji, where both leaders discussed strategies for strengthening youth engagement ahead of the 2027 polls.
Also, at the recent meeting of APC state chairmen from the 36 states of the federation held in Lagos, party leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the APC’s grassroots structures in preparation for the next general election.
Lagos APC Chairman, Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi, expressed confidence that the party would retain power in both Lagos State and at the national level.
He urged party leaders to consolidate the APC’s grassroots structures and remain committed to the progressive ideals upon which the party was founded.
Going into the 2027 elections, analysts say the APC’s immediate challenge will be managing internal grievances arising from its primary elections while convincing voters amid prevailing economic hardship.
For the opposition, including the ADC, NDC and other parties, the task will be to translate online popularity into effective grassroots mobilisation and election-day structures, while capitalising on any divisions within the ruling party.
Although the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise means the final number of eligible voters is yet to be determined, Lagos entered the 2023 general election with 7,060,195 registered voters, the highest of any state across the region.
Ogun: APC still holds advantage despite defections
In Ogun State, the APC remains firmly in control despite fears of post-primary implosion. Although prominent figures such as Senators Gbenga Daniel and Ibikunle Amosun were denied senatorial tickets alongside four serving House of Representatives members, the party has largely maintained internal cohesion.
The defection of Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello to the PDP after the governorship primary has not significantly altered the political equation. While some observers believe her candidacy for Ogun Central Senatorial District could spring a surprise, others argue that her prolonged absence from active politics may limit her electoral appeal.
Meanwhile, PDP governorship candidate Oladipupo Adebutu has intensified grassroots mobilisation. A son of billionaire businessman Chief Kensington Adebutu, he insists he remains a formidable challenger despite the APC’s dominance.
The APC candidate, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), dismisses the threat, citing President Tinubu’s popularity, the party’s strong structure and his own legislative achievements across Ogun’s three senatorial districts.
Public opinion, however, appears divided. While some residents believe the APC’s organisational strength makes it the favourite, others argue that worsening economic conditions and insecurity could undermine its chances.
Businessman, Adewale Odunewu believes the APC possesses enough political machinery to retain power, alleging that the opposition has been weakened by internal divisions.
But a secondary school teacher, Kayode Ifaloye disagrees.
“I don’t see the APC winning the 2027 election. Nigerians are groaning under the weight of economic hardship. The cost of living has skyrocketed, purchasing power has collapsed and many people are yet to feel the benefits of the government’s reforms. Voters will ultimately decide with their ballots,” he said.
Efforts to obtain the latest voter registration figures from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Ogun were unsuccessful, as calls and messages to the commission’s spokesperson were not returned before filing this report.
But in 2023, the total registered voters in the state is 2,688,305.
Oyo: Three-way contest takes shape
Oyo State is emerging as one of the South-West’s most fiercely contested political battlegrounds ahead of the 2027 general election, with analysts projecting a keen three-way governorship race involving APC, APM and the Accord Party.
The state’s political landscape has been significantly reshaped by Governor Seyi Makinde’s realignment following the prolonged leadership crisis within PDP.
Makinde has thrown his weight behind the APM, where a former Commissioner for Finance, Bimbo Adekanmbi, secured the party’s governorship ticket.
The governor again, has publicly endorsed Adekanmbi as his preferred successor and has also declared his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election on the platform of the APM.
His decision positions him as one of the prominent challengers to President Tinubu from the South-West, although the move has reportedly triggered discontent within his political camp, resulting in defections and fresh political realignments.
In the PDP, former Deputy Governor Hazeem Gbolarumi has emerged as the party’s governorship candidate.
Political observers, however, believe the party faces an uphill task in rebuilding its electoral strength after the internal divisions that fractured its traditional support base.
APC, on its part, is seeking to reclaim the Agodi Government House after spending eight years in opposition. Senator Sharafadeen Alli emerged as the party’s governorship candidate, while the leadership continues efforts to reconcile aggrieved aspirants and unite party stakeholders ahead of the polls.
Supporters of former Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, have continued to express reservations over the conduct of the APC governorship primary.
Observers have also pointed to the relatively limited participation of influential party figures, including former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin and former Oyo First Lady, Florence Ajimobi, at some APC campaign activities, fuelling speculation over the level of cohesion within the party.
The Accord Party is also expected to play a significant role in the contest through its governorship candidate, Hamzat Oriyomi. Widely regarded as a grassroots politician with considerable appeal among low-income residents, Oriyomi is seen as a formidable contender.
However, analysts argue that the party’s greatest challenge will be converting his personal popularity into a robust statewide political structure capable of competing with the established parties.
Beyond the governorship election, Oyo State is expected to play a strategic role in shaping the outcome of the 2027 presidential contest in the South-West.
Analysts say the eventual outcome will depend largely on the APM’s ability to preserve Governor Makinde’s political coalition, the APC’s success in resolving its internal divisions, and the Accord Party’s capacity to broaden its support beyond its traditional grassroots base.
Although the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise means the final number of eligible voters is yet to be determined, figures from the 2023 general election show that Oyo State had 3,276,675 registered voters, underscoring its importance as one of Nigeria’s major electoral battlegrounds.
Osun: Most unpredictable battlefield
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Osun State is emerging as perhaps the South-West’s most unpredictable political battleground ahead of the 2027 general election, following a series of realignments that have dramatically reshaped the state’s political landscape.
At the centre of the unfolding drama is Governor Ademola Adeleke, whose defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Accord Party has created an unusual political equation.
While seeking a second term on the platform of the Accord Party, Adeleke has also endorsed President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027, despite claims by Prof. Christopher Imumolen and Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim to the Accord Party’s presidential ticket.
The development has left political observers questioning the emerging alliance, with the governor backing the presidential candidate of one party while pursuing his governorship ambition on another platform.
Beyond the Accord Party and the All Progressives Congress (APC), the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is also positioning itself as a formidable force in the state.
The party’s National Secretary, a former APC chieftains and ex Governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola, remains one of the state’s most influential political figures, while former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Dr. Najeem Salam also a former APC member, is flying the party’s flag in the August 15 governorship election.
The political permutations became even more complex as several prominent PDP leaders declined to follow Adeleke into the Accord Party.
Instead, former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and some prominent members have thrown their weight behind the APM and its governorship candidate, Hon. Adewale Adebayo.
Contrary to claims of a PDP-Accord alliance, Oyinlola insisted that the PDP structure aligned with him is working with the APM and not the Accord Party.
Speaking after a strategic meeting with APM’s governorship and legislative candidates, Oyinlola described the APM-PDP alliance as a coalition established to challenge for power in both the 2026 governorship election and the 2027 general election.
“This meeting is to familiarise ourselves with our candidates for the forthcoming governorship and general elections. This movement is a combination of APM and PDP. We have formed an alliance to present a formidable force for the coming elections.
“There is an alliance between APM and PDP. That was formalised some time ago, and it is on that platform that we are building our strategy. This is an endorsement of APM candidates and no other party,” he said.
Governor Adeleke’s endorsement of President Tinubu has also generated debate among political observers, many of whom question the depth of his support. They point to his recent comments during a condolence visit to Esa-Oke following the alleged killing of a party member, arguing that his body language suggests lingering political differences despite his public endorsement of the President.
Although the Accord Party currently controls the state government, political activities on the ground indicate that the APC remains the most organised opposition force determined to reclaim power.
Other opposition parties, including the ADC and APM, have yet to establish the same level of statewide visibility despite their growing political relevance.
Even the APC, however, has not been immune from internal challenges. Disagreements arising from its governorship primary have triggered defections by some members to the Accord Party.
Despite the setbacks, APC leaders insist the disagreements are not significant enough to undermine the party’s electoral chances.
A chieftain of the party and its Osun Central Senatorial candidate, Kunle Rasheed Adegoke (SAN), dismissed reports of a deepening crisis, describing the disagreements as routine political differences.
“In every political party, there would be disagreements. We have our own fair share of internal disputes but they are manageable,” he said.
According to him, party leaders are already engaging aggrieved members with a view to resolving outstanding issues before the elections.
Many APC leaders also believe President Tinubu enjoys additional political goodwill in Osun because of the prominence of notable federal figures from the state, including the late Chief of Army Staff, Lt.-Gen. Taoreed Lagbaja, and the Comptroller-General of the Nigeria Customs Service, Bashir Adeniyi, former governor of the state and current Minister for Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola among others.
As campaigns gather momentum, attention is also shifting to the electorate.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says 2,339,233 registered voters are expected to decide the outcome of the August 15 governorship election.
According to the Resident Electoral Commissioner in Osun State, Oluwatoyin Babalola, women constitute 52.79 per cent of registered voters, while young people aged between 18 and 34 account for 36.64 per cent of the electorate.
With multiple political alliances, shifting loyalties, internal party disputes and a sizeable youth voting population, Osun is shaping up as one of the most fiercely contested and unpredictable electoral battlegrounds in the South-West, making the August 15 governorship election a crucial indicator of the state’s political direction ahead of the 2027 general election.
Ondo: APC battles internal divisions
In Ondo State, the APC continues to dominate despite internal tensions arising from the National Assembly primaries.
The recent defection of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko to the APC has further strengthened the ruling party, while efforts by Interior Minister Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo to reconcile aggrieved members appear to be yielding results.
Nonetheless, the party remains divided between camps loyal to Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and Tunji-Ojo, who is widely believed to harbour governorship ambitions.
Despite these internal disagreements, opposition parties, including the PDP, ADC and NNPP, currently appear too weak to pose a significant threat.
Party officials also disclosed that the Presidency and the APC national leadership have initiated reconciliation efforts to ensure unity ahead of the elections.
According to the party’s Director of Publicity and Strategy, Steve Otaloro, efforts to reconcile all aggrieved members are ongoing.
Political observers also note that virtually all major political figures in the state, including serving and former governors, legislators and senior political office holders are now members of the APC.
Currently, with the ongoing voter registration ongoing, the total number of eligible voters cannot be ascertaining but in 2023, Ondo State has 1,991,344 registered voters.
Ekiti: APC’s safest fortress but voter participation remains a concern
Among the six South-West states, Ekiti appears to be APC’s most secure political stronghold heading into the 2027 general elections.
The ruling party retains a firm grip on the state’s political structures, while the opposition remains largely fragmented and without a formidable coalition capable of mounting a serious challenge.
Although local political contests may generate isolated pockets of competition, political analysts broadly expect the APC to remain the overwhelming favourite in National Assembly, State House of Assembly and presidential elections, barring any major political realignment before 2027.
The state’s electoral strength is reflected in its voter register. Ahead of the June 2026 governorship election, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disclosed that more than 1.02 million registered voters had collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs).
INEC also announced that the number of registered voters in Ekiti increased from 987,647 in 2023 to 1,059,360 in 2026 following the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise and the subsequent clean-up of the voters’ register.
Despite the impressive registration figures, the governorship election exposed a familiar challenge confronting Nigeria’s electoral process, low voter turnout.
Election observers under the umbrella of the Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC), which monitored the June 20, 2026 governorship poll, described the election as peaceful, credible and transparent.
However, the coalition argued that the exercise also highlighted structural weaknesses that must be addressed before the 2027 general elections.
At a post-election briefing in Lagos, NHRC leaders Martins Adeleke, Fred Ojinika and Akinwale Kasali urged INEC to embark on comprehensive electoral reforms aimed at improving participation, inclusiveness and overall electoral efficiency.
According to the coalition, the low voter turnout recorded during the election underscored the urgent need for more aggressive voter education and civic engagement campaigns. The observers attributed voter apathy to several factors, including worsening economic hardship, transportation challenges, security concerns and growing public dissatisfaction with governance. They argued that reversing the trend would require a coordinated effort involving INEC, political parties and civil society organisations to restore public confidence in the electoral process and encourage broader participation. Beyond voter mobilisation, the NHRC called for legal and administrative reforms that would enable categories of citizens engaged in essential duties on election day to vote.
The coalition noted that journalists, healthcare workers, security personnel and hospital patients are frequently disenfranchised because they are unable to leave their places of assignment to cast their ballots.
Drawing from electoral practices in countries such as Ghana, the group advocated the introduction of special voting arrangements for essential workers and other eligible voters who are unavoidably absent from their polling units on election day.
The observers also recommended a significant expansion of polling units nationwide, citing experiences from several communities in Ekiti where voters reportedly travelled long distances to vote.
According to the coalition, increasing the number of polling units would reduce congestion, improve accessibility and ultimately boost voter turnout.
The group further urged INEC to institutionalise priority voting arrangements for elderly persons, pregnant women, nursing mothers and Persons Living With Disabilities (PLWDs), arguing that such measures would make the electoral process more inclusive and accessible.
In addition, the coalition advocated amendments to the Electoral Act to permit independent candidacy, maintaining that such a reform would broaden democratic participation and create opportunities for qualified individuals outside the traditional political party structure.
For the APC, Ekiti remains its most dependable electoral base in the South-West.
Yet, while the party’s dominance appears firmly established, the broader challenge for Nigeria’s democracy extends beyond determining the likely winner.
The more pressing task ahead of 2027 will be strengthening voter participation, expanding electoral inclusiveness and sustaining public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process.
The road ahead
As campaigns gather momentum, the South-West will remain central to Nigeria’s presidential calculations.
The APC enters the race with significant structural advantages, a formidable grassroots network and the political influence of President Tinubu.
However, developments in Osun, the evolving contest in Oyo, changing voter behaviour in Lagos and prevailing economic realities suggest that electoral success will depend not only on party structures but also on credible candidates, strategic alliances and effective voter mobilisation.
The South-West remains the APC’s strongest political fortress. Yet it is increasingly becoming one of Nigeria’s most competitive battlegrounds, where party machinery, personality politics, governance performance and public perception will collectively shape the outcome of the 2027 general election.
