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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has attributed Nigeria’s persistent fuel affordability challenge to a structural supply deficit, noting that the country’s daily petrol demand of about 50–53 million litres continues to exceed effective domestic refining capacity, thereby increasing price pressures.
In a statement on rising oil prices, Director-General, Dr. Chinyere Almona, said the surge in global crude oil prices to around $112 per barrel, coupled with the fourth upward review of Dangote Refinery’s gantry price to about N1,245 per litre, signals mounting pressure in the downstream market, with pump prices trending toward N1,500 per litre. She warned that the development is already transmitting inflationary shocks across transportation, food and industrial production.
Almona recommended targeted, time-bound support for key sectors such as transportation, agriculture, and SMEs to cushion inflationary effects, while avoiding blanket subsidies. She stressed that stabilising the naira through improved foreign exchange liquidity and policy coordination is crucial, given the strong exchange-rate impact on fuel pricing. She also called for policy clarity and consistency to boost investor confidence in the deregulated market.
While higher crude prices may suggest fiscal gains, she noted that Nigeria’s benefits are limited by production constraints and structural inefficiencies. According to her, the dominant impact remains negative, as cost-push inflation intensifies, industrial competitiveness weakens, and household purchasing power declines. Rising energy costs, she added, continue to erode business margins and slow economic expansion.
The chamber urged urgent measures to boost crude production to supply local refineries. It called on the Federal Government and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to enforce domestic crude supply obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act, ensuring consistent allocation of over 300,000 barrels per day to local refineries, particularly the Dangote Refinery. This, it said, should be supported by a transparent and scalable naira-for-crude framework to reduce foreign exchange exposure, lower production costs, and stabilise output.
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LCCI also urged the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to implement a rules-based pricing framework that reflects verifiable costs while preventing abuse of market dominance without undermining deregulation. It further recommended accelerating the operationalisation of licensed and modular refineries to reduce concentration risks, while maintaining strategic imports as a short-term buffer.
The chamber emphasised that addressing foreign exchange volatility, logistics inefficiencies, and distribution bottlenecks is essential to improving market efficiency. It described the current oil price shock as a critical test of Nigeria’s energy and economic structure.
According to LCCI, sustainable fuel price moderation will come through structural reforms that expand domestic supply, encourage competition, and enhance transparency across the value chain. It added that with strong public-private collaboration, Nigeria can build a more resilient and self-sufficient energy ecosystem.
The chamber also urged broader restructuring of the oil and gas sector to position Nigeria as an alternative supplier to African countries and Europe, noting that geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region present an opportunity for Nigeria to expand its market reach.
