•Trade, education, transport worst hit
By Chinwendu Obienyi
Four years after the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) enforced its first sit-at-home order across Nigeria’s Southeast, the region continues to count the heavy economic and social cost of the directive, with losses now exceeding N7.6 trillion, data from SBM Intelligence revealed on Monday.
The report by the geopolitical research firm revealed that the protest-induced shutdowns have caused extensive damage across the transport, trade, and education sectors since the action began.
Initially observed on August 9, 2021, as a weekly protest demanding the release of IPOB leader, Nnamdi Kanu, the sit-at-home directive has since morphed into a movement driven largely by fear rather than voluntary solidarity.
While early compliance was widespread, SBM Intelligence, in its report titled “Socioeconomic Devastation: Four Years of IPOB’s Sit-at-Home,” noted that recent surveys show only 29 per cent of residents still support the action as most businesses and schools now comply out of fear of violent reprisals by armed enforcers, popularly referred to as “unknown gunmen.”
It added that the widespread violence linked to the protests has forced thousands to flee their homes and stalled economic activity in major commercial centres such as Onitsha, Aba, and Nnewi.
“Key findings reveal that cumulative losses have exceeded about N7.6 trillion with SMEs, markets and supply chains being left crippled. Micro-businesses actually lose about N4.6 trillion annually while transporters forfeit N10-13 billion daily during the protest.
Similarly, income drops of 50-70 per cent are widespread, exemplified by a seamstress’ earnings, falling from N100,000 to N27,000”, the report stated.
The education sector has not been spared. Students in the region have missed critical school days, including national exams such as WAEC and NECO, with experts warning that the repeated disruption poses long-term risks to human capital development.
Formed in December 2020, IPOB’s armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), was originally established to defend rural communities from attacks by armed herders. But the group has since been linked to a spate of attacks on police and military facilities.
The report revealed that about 776 people have reportedly died in IPOB-related violence over the past four years, with Imo State accounting for the highest number of incidents (total incidents across the States hit 332).
Although, the federal government’s countermeasures—including military operations like Python Dance and Crocodile Smile—have drawn criticism over human rights abuses and collateral damage to civilian communities.
The situation reflects a breakdown in trust between the state and the region,” said Ijeoma Nwachukwu, a conflict resolution analyst. “Force alone cannot solve what is essentially a political and governance crisis.”
Analysts agree that ending the economic hemorrhage requires more than security interventions.
They further urged the federal government to pursue structural reforms and engage in sustained political dialogue with leaders from the Southeast.
A policy researcher, Emeka Ugwuonye, said, “The cost of inaction is simply too high and Nigeria cannot afford to leave one of its most industrious regions in limbo”.
As the crisis enters its fifth year, SBM Intelligence concluded that only a combination of security, governance, and socioeconomic reforms can begin to heal the region and reverse its steep economic decline.
“Structural reforms, sincere political dialogue, and trust-building efforts are essential to healing the deepening fractures in Nigeria’s Southeast”, It said.