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Members of the Tartan Army have found themselves doing mental mathematics as the World Cup group stage progresses. The national team has never qualified for the knock-out phase of a major tournament before.
But the expanded competition in 2026 has opened a route to the last 32, with the eight best third-placed teams also advancing alongside the top 24 sides. The opening match victory over Haiti means Steve Clarke’s men are in with a great chance of qualifying, regardless of what happens in the final match with Brazil.
Three points may be enough to advance as long as Scotland avoids a heavy defeat to Brazil Wednesday night. A victory over the five-time champions means Scotland would finish at least second in the group, while a draw will almost certainly see the team extend its stay in the USA.
After the 1-0 win over Haiti was followed up with a 1-0 defeat to Morocco, Scotland are currently on three points with a goal difference of zero. That places them second out of the current third place teams, although some have still to play their second matches.
Incredibly, Scotland could qualify for the last 32 despite having a worst record than some teams who will be going home regardless, including Haiti. If Scotland lose to Brazil and the Caribbean nation defeats Morocco, both teams would finish on three points.
But Scotland are already guaranteed to finish above Haiti due to their head-to-head record. Goal difference was once used to separate teams who finished level on points in World Cup groups, a system still utilised in many leagues around the world, including in Scotland and England.
This is the first time head-to-head has been used as the first factor after the rules were changed by FIFA. Were Haiti to beat Morocco 4-0, unlikely but not impossible, they would still finish below Scotland despite having a better overall record.
Similarly, in Group D, Turkey have already been eliminated with one game to go having lost to both Australia and Paraguay. A victory over the USA could, however, see them draw level on points with either of those two teams, potentially with a better goal difference.
However, the Turks cannot catch the US on points and lost both head-to-heads with Paraguay and Australia, meaning they are guaranteed to go home. They would need to win 3-0 to guarantee finishing with a better record than Scotland, assuming the Scots lose to Brazil.
If England were to lose their final two games 1-0 and results elsewhere go against them, they could also be on the plane home despite potentially having a better record than Scotland.
Scotland missed out on qualification as a third placed team in 1990. Their record of two points (when it was two points for a win) and a goal difference of minus one, saw the side finish as the joint lowest third-place team with four from six advancing.
Scotland went out on goal difference in 1978 when the head-to-head rule would have seen the side advance instead of eventual finalists the Netherlands. Scotland also exited the competition on goal difference, which is still used if teams draw their head-to-head, in 1974 and 1982.
