From Oluseye Ojo, Ibadan

Baring last minute changes, the 2023 governorship race in Oyo State will be a straight contest among three political parties, which are the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Accord Party.

The governorship candidates of the three political parties are the incumbent governor of the state, Seyi Makinde for PDP; the incumbent chairman, Senate Committee on Local Content, Teslim Folarin of APC and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Chief Adebayo Adelabu.

Apart from the trio, the remaining 15 political parties that are operating in the state may have to form a coalition or alliance with any of the three leading political parties – PDP, APC, and Accord.

A simple opinion poll conducted in the state revealed that some questions are still agitating the minds of people on who should become governor of the pace setter state in 2023. It also showed that a number of the electorate have not made up their minds on who they would support for electoral victory. They are studying political trends and would make up their minds some days to the election day.

The questions border majorly on the chances of the three leading gubernatorial candidates in the state. They have been asking: what structure does each candidate have to win in the five major political division of the state? What roles will national politics play in the emergence of winner for the governorship poll in the state? What are the qualities and values of each candidate? Who among them is a promise keeper?

The trio are graduates and have post-graduate experiences in different fields. Makinde is a graduate of Electrical Engineering from the University of Lagos and has work experience in the oil and gas sector. He is the founder of the Makon Group Limited; an indigenous oil and gas company in Nigeria. At the age of 29 in 1997, he established his first oil and gas private business, called Makon Engineering and Technical Services, (METS).

Also, Folarin bagged Bachelor of Science degree in Political Science from the University of Ibadan. He later proceeded to Harvard University, United States of America for further educational training. He had a stint in the civil service of the United Kingdom in the Department of Trade London. He returned to Nigeria in 2002 and joined active politics.

In the same vein, Adelabu, studied Accounting at the Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife. He finished with a first-class honours. He worked in the banking sector and rose to the position of deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), before he joined active politics prior to the 2019 elections. He has to his credit professional courses he took in various business schools in various institutions including University of London, Harvard University, Stanford University as well as Wharton, Columbia, Kelloggs, and Euromoney.

Political pundits have, however, observed that irrespective of the questions agitating the minds of people, the 2023 game is still very dicey among the three leading governorship candidates in the state. According to them, the internal wrangling within the ruling PDP and the major opposition party – APC, could literally be cut with a knife, though efforts are being made not to allow things to fall apart further, so that the centre can hold.

Governor Seyi Makinde’s political career

The first time he contested a major election in Nigeria was 2007. Then, he wanted to represent Oyo South senatorial district in the National Assembly. He was the candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). But he lost to Kamorudeen Adedibu, son of the late strong man of Ibadan politics, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, of the PDP.

Prior to the 2011 general elections, Makinde joined PDP and also sought the party’s ticket to contest the same Oyo South senatorial district poll. But his aspiration stopped at the party’s primary because he could not secure the ticket.

However, in the build up to the 2015 general elections, Makinde eyed the governorship seat of the state on the PDP platform. When the PDP primary for the gubernatorial election was concluded in December 2014 at Obafemi Awolowo Stadium (Liberty Stadium), Oke-Ado, Ibadan, he could not get the ticket. He actually staged a walk out at the venue of the primary alongside the former governor of the state, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, who was seeking re-election in 2015, having lost the governorship poll in 2011.

Makinde however, defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Alao-Akala dumped PDP for the Labour Party (LP). They joined the new parties with thousands of their supporters from PDP. Makinde contested the governorship poll on the SDP platform and Alao-Akala was also the candidate of LP.

The 2015 governorship election in the state was won by Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The Accord candidate, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, came second. The SDP, LP and PDP came behind in the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

In September 2017, the then Caretaker National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, paid a one-day working visit to Oyo State.  He visited notable leaders of PDP in the state, who had defected to other parties, including Makinde, and Rashidi Ladoja. The result of extensive consultations over the matter made Makinde to return to PDP. He played his politics and outsmarted other aspirants in PDP that wanted to get the party’s governorship ticket.

On September 29, 2018, Makinde emerged as the governorship candidate of the PDP for the 2019 general elections, at the primary that took place at Liberty Stadium, Oke-Ado, Ibadan. He forged ahead and won the 2019 governorship election with the support of a coalition of African Democratic Congress (ADC), Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and so on. Makinde polled a total of 515,621 votes to defeat his closest rival, Chief Adebayo Adelabu of the APC, who scored 357,982 votes.

On May 29, 2019, Makinde was sworn in as the 28th Executive Governor of Oyo State. On April 7, 2022, Makinde declared his intention to run for second term in office. In the PDP primary held in the second quarter of 2022, Makinde emerged as the 2023 governorship candidate of the party.

Senator Teslim Folarin

Teslim Kolawole Folarin cut his political teeth in the PDP prior to the 2003 general elections. He contested and won the senatorial seat for Oyo Central in 2003 at the age of 39 years. He was re-elected for a second term in 2007 on the platform of the same PDP, during which he served as a Senate Leader.

Currently, Folarin, who had served on the various senate committees, including Senate Committee on Business and Rules, as well as Marines and Transport, is the current chairman, Senate Committee on Local Content during his third term in the senate, which began in 2019.

He was an active player in the 2008 power probe when he was the Leader of the Senate. He has sponsored several private bills, including Armed Forces Pension Act, and Insurance Act, apart from facilitating developmental projects to his district.

In 2015, he was the governorship candidate of the PDP in the state. But he lost the election and in September 2018, he emerged the candidate for Oyo Central senatorial district for the 2019 elections. He won the election in 2019.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu

In 2018,  Adelabu resigned from Central Bank of Nigeria in order to join the 2019 governorship race in Oyo State.  On June 20, 2018, he visited the party secretariat of APC in Ibadan and made his intention known officially that he wanted to contest in the gubernatorial race. On the same day, he picked up the expression of interest form from the party.

On September 30, 2018, Adelabu emerged as the governorship candidate for the APC in the state, at the end of a party primary held at the Lekan Salami Stadium in Ibadan. All other aspirants were prevailed on by the powers that be in the party to step down for him.

But the results of the March 9, 2019 governorship poll in the state did not favour him. He lost the election to Seyi Makinde of the PDP.

Adelabu also made his intention known to contest the 2023 governorship poll on the platform of APC. But he lost to Teslim Folarin at the APC primary held at the Liberty Stadium. Thereafter, he resigned from APC, and joined Accord. The previous gubernatorial candidate of the party, Ayodele Oyajide, stepped down for him at the programme held by the party at the Liberty Stadium some weeks ago. Adelabu was then nominated to replace Oyajide, which received overwhelming voice votes from delegates from the three senatorial districts in the state – South, Central and the North.

Internal Wrangling In Pdp, Apc, Accord

But none of the three leading political parties is free from internal wrangling. But the ones in PDP and APC are well pronounced. As gathered, the internal wrangling has made notable members of each of the party to defect to other parties.

The internal wrangling in PDP has made political figures like a former Majority Leader of the House of Representatives, Alhaja Mulikat Akande-Adeola to move to SDP; a member of the House of Representatives, Muraina Ajibola, representing Ibarapa Central and Ibarapa North to join APC; Senator Kola Balogun, representing Oyo South in the National Assembly to join the APC; and a grassroots politician, Alhaji Adebisi Olopoeniyan, to move to the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP); former Majority Leader, Oyo State House of Assembly, Michael Okunlade to join SDP; and so on.

The implosion within APC has also dealt a great blow to oneness of the party. But efforts are ongoing to broker peace and bring back those that have dumped the party for other parties into the fold. But the reconciliation cannot bring back people like a 2019 governorship aspirant on the APC platform that is currently the PDP candidate for Oyo South senatorial district, Joseph Olasunkanmi Tegbe.

The list of the people that dumped APC for Accord also comprised Chief Bayo Adelabu, as well as the present three senatorial candidates of Accord in Oyo South – Kolapo Kola-Daisi; Oyo North – Shina Peller, currently representing Iseyin/Itesiwaju/Kajola/Iwajowa federal constituency; and Oyo Central, Faozey Oladotun Nurudeen; as well as the candidate for Oluyole federal constituency and former chairman of Association of Local Government of Nigeria (ALGON) in the state, Ayodeji Abass-Aleshinloye.

It was further gathered that some aggrieved members in PDP and APC have resolved not to quit the party. But they would stay in each party and work against it.

One of the aggrieived members of the party is a legal luminary, Chief Adeniyi Akintola (SAN). He had aspired for the governorship ticket of the party but it went to Folarin. He dropped a bombshell on a popular radio programme recently that he has asked his supporters to join the PDP, and that APC could not win the gubernatorial poll in the state in 2023. But his outburst attracted criticism from the APC in the state, while a number of national leaders of the party have cautioned him against such divisive utterances.

Factors that will determine winner

Some of the factors that have been identified as very potent for the success of each political party in the forthcoming election include structures, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, power of incumbency and religion.

Investigation has revealed that the two parties that have structures across all the 33 local government areas of the state are PDP and APC. The two parties may leverage on their structures to record electoral victory over each other in 2023. But it cannot be rightly said that Accord can match PDP and APC when it comes to party structures across the state.

If the 2023 presidential candidate of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, wins the February 2023 presidential poll, it may work favourably for the APC governorship candidate in Oyo State, Senator Teslim Folarin. But the last has not been heard on this as political horse-trading is ongoing at the highest level ahead of the 2023 general elections.

Some political analysts have said that if the governorship election is conducted in Oyo State in September, the PDP candidate, Governor Seyi Makinde would win. They predicated their argument on the grounds that there is no formidable opposition in the state, adding that the governor has performed very well, especially in the area of infrastructural development in different parts of the state. Makinde, they said, has the power of incumbency that he could deploy for his electoral victory.

A careful study of trends has also shown that religion would play significant role in whoever that emerges the governor of the pace setter state in 2023. But the three candidates have been very careful about the way they handle the sensitive religious matters.

Last line

Separate interface with loyalists of each of the three leading parties revealed that they are all optimistic that their party would win the governorship seat in the state.

A chieftain of PDP, Dare Adeleke, has argued that Makinde would win the election, while the APC candidate, Teslim Folarin, would only score about 10 per cent of the total votes. The publicity secretary of PDP in the state, Akeem Olatunjj, also said majority of people and electorate are behind the candidature of Makinde for the governorship poll in February next year.

But the publicity secretary of APC, Olawale Sadare, believe that the ongoing reconciliation efforts in the party have been yielding positive results. He submitted that APC, having administered the state for eight years, between 2011 and 2019, has what it takes to win the gubernatorial poll.

Adelabu also observed at a recent public forum that the coalition of political parties that brought Makinde to power in 2019 has crumbled and that everyone has a level playing field to test his popularity and acceptability before the populace.