Primary lessons from Osun State governorship election result for Nigeria’s 2027 polls

Until the State Returning Officer of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Joshua Ogunwole, formally declared Governor Ademola Adeleke the winner of the Osun State Governorship Election, at the INEC collation centre in Osogbo, in the early hours of Sunday, August 16, 2026, some observers feared some glitches may still be invoked to finally make a mess of the keenly contested exercise.

This did not happen!

INEC, instead formally announced Governor Adeleke as the winner of the election and declared him re-elected to govern the South West state for another four years.

Considering the political platform on which Governor Adeleke contested, that is the Accord Party, and the alleged strength and sizes of the platforms of his two strongest rivals, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the final result of the election has left some primary lessons we Nigerians must take note of ahead of the forthcoming 2027 general election.

This Osun election, including the intrigues and the result, has renewed to Nigerians the possible assurance that their votes may still count.

The point being made is that since the controversial ending of the 2023 Presidential Election, where INEC blamed glitches for sudden change of election collation strategy, a problem most Nigerians still deny ever occurred, some citizens have concluded that INEC can never conduct any reliable election in the country.

Besides, though the Accord Party governorship candidate, Governor Adeleke, was the incumbent seeking re-election, the situations on the ground in Osun State presented the governor’s opponents as the ones riding at the back of lions and as the ones poised to make use of their awesome powers to intimidate and defeat the Accord Party’s candidate.

Since this did not finally happen, it has become necessary to carefully note the factors that combined to persuade or force INEC to announce what the majority of keen observers say represented the likely result.

At the peak of the campaigns, many analysts argued vehemently that All Progressives Congress candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, must be declared winner, not only because he was an experienced political leader in his own right but because, as the APC candidate, he represented President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s personal interest in this very crucial South West state.

According to one of such commentators, barely a day before the Election Day, “the federal ruling party, the APC, and President Tinubu himself cannot afford to lose Osun at a time like this, when the party and Mr. President desperately want to fully control the South West region before 2027. They will not make that mistake because they are aware such a loss will send a dangerous signal that Mr. President can also be defeated in his home states or region.”

With the result of Osun State Election, that so-called dangerous signal has been sent!

To win, INEC confirmed, Adeleke polled 511,067 votes, while Oyebamiji got 444,815 votes, giving the incumbent state governor a winning margin of 66,252 votes.

Reports said some of the factors that helped Adeleke to win his re-election include what informed analysts summarized as his ability to remain with his people during his first four years as a governor. “His accessibility to the people was his strongest governance tool. He is our governor and we always saw him in our midst and with us,” a woman said, on Sunday evening while justifying his victory.

As a result of his grassroots presence and dominance, he not only won outrightly 19 out of Osun’s 30 Local Government Areas, he also got significant votes from the rest of the 11 area councils that AMBO and APC won.

This is a good lesson for the rest of the state governors in the country and Mr. President, Nigerian electorate are maturing daily and when it is time for them to cast their votes, they will remember and be guided. Whatever a man sows, the same shall he lead.

Any state governor, lawmaker or even Mr. President that chooses to exclude any part of his constituency while in power must know that the neglected part will never vote for for him, no matter the degree of threat, bribery, blackmail or similar other cheap tactics.

With the Osun State Election result, it has once again been confirmed that quality and fair governance remains the primary basis for election in Nigeria of today and tomorrow.

Needless to say, APC’s Oyebamiji was not an easy opponent in this Osun State Election.

Yes, APC candidate won in 11 LGAs and got significant votes in several other areas where the party’s candidate was popular.

During the campaigns, some APC strategists spoke so much about what they called “substantial organisational strength.”

Yes, due mostly because of this line of argument, the APC campaign largely entered the contest with great expectations. They declared that the party controlled local government structures in the state ahead of the election.

Some analysts, who were carried away by this claim described those structures as “potentially important to the outcome of the governorship election.”

If you ask me today, I will prefer to say it is not just about political parties’ ‘organizational strength, or control of the alleged local governments’ political structures,” but true impact and the people’s ideas of the candidates’ individual characters and values.

I have maintained of recent that time has come when Nigerians should no longer be deceived or can no longer be deceived by all these bogus claims of “holding political structure,” all these bogus claims of tribe, religion, brotherhood, sisterhood or all other forms of exploitative affinities. Political leadership in Nigeria of today should just be about fairness and equitable development. A political leader in our today’s Nigeria who wants to be supported, followed and voted for must serve the people honestly, fairly and without discrimination.

I say these because I think that in Osun State, APC organized equally very well across the 30 LGA’s but the people, who were clearly and personally touched by the state government policies and development programmes, under Governor Adeleke, decided to retain him as governor for the next four years.

This is not a way of judging that Adeleke has better character than the other candidates. No! It is not as simple as that.

But it is a way of saying that for an incumbent to freely get a re-election from todays Nigerian voters, he is more likely to have convinced them he genuinely cares for them when had the first opportunity of proving his mettle.

He must have convinced the people that giving him another four years is the best option as the first four years were not days of the Locust.

This is a more dependable basis upon which to expect the people’s votes.

Understandably, Oyebamiji and APC recorded victories in Ilesa East, Boripe, Irepodun and Obokun, among others. While this may support the argument of a political leader sustaining his or her area of traditional support, it cannot be better than a statesmanlike decision to make broad spread impact in all of ones constituency.

This is the way to go ahead of 2027.

This is why I feel sad when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu seems, sometimes, to listen to sugar coated wide mouths trying to convince him that he should nurture the unfortunate narrative that some segments of his Nigerian Constituency hate him deep enough that he needs not go out of his way to woo them to his side.

Worse still, these cheap cheats tell Mr President that he can win a re-election without such identified parts of his constituency. This is a cheap lie for except Mr President is preparing for another election result collation glitches, it would be foolhardy of him and his handlers to plan to win without making meaningful effort to carry all the people along.

If for nothing else, the outcome of Osun Governorship Election clearly points to this reality.

The spread that Governor Adeleke got in Osun, especially the substantial votes he got in the 11 local government area councils he lost to APC, can only be interpreted to mean that he is coming back to govern the entire Osun State, not just in his Ede South but also in mixed urban area like Osogbo where he polled 36,480 votes as against APC’s 30,474. or in Ife Central where he garnered 21,171 votes against Oyebamiji APC’s 15,913.

INEC result said “the Accord candidate secured victories in Boluwaduro, Ede South, Ife North, Ilesa West, Ifedayo, Ife Central, Orolu, Osogbo, Oriade, Odo-Otin, Ife East, Ifelodun, Iwo, Ede North, Ila, Aiyedire, Egbedore, Aiyedaade and Ejigbo.”

As a result of the referred spread, though Oyebamiji and his party, the APC, won in Ilesa East, Boripe, Irepodun, Obokun, Atakunmosa West, Irewole, Atakunmosa East, Isokan, Ola-Oluwa, Ife South and Olorunda, they could not stop Adeleke’s glaring re-election.

This is how it should be. When an elected leader does his honest best for the people, they know and will show appreciation without force or blackmail.

Any elected leader, who, instead of winning the votes of his people through hard work, honesty and fairness, but plans on how to rig and subvert should be ashamed of himself. No matter how professionally cheating or rigging is done, the people know.

So, as Nigeria and Nigerians compile the lessons of Osun State Election outcome to serve as an important guide during the forthcoming National Election in 2027, it would not be irrelevant to emphasize that Adeleke, who faced many last minutes intrigues and political crisis ended the race with a whopping 66,252-vote advantage.

This says so much about the governor’s final rating in the court of the common people in Osogbo and in the remote villages of Osun State.

An analyst wrote of this thus: “The final figures show that Adeleke did not merely scrape through.

“His 511,067 votes represented a substantial lead over Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes.

“The 66,252-vote difference was large enough to withstand the APC candidate’s strong performances in 11 LGAs.

“ADC’s 17,180 votes also meant that the opposition vote was divided among the major challengers, although it would be difficult to determine from the aggregate figures alone how many ADC votes would otherwise have gone to either of the two leading candidates.”

This last point is instructive for the 2027 Presidential Election. As the leading opposition political parties continue to reject pleas to unite under it’s strongest candidate, are they not also helping to defeat themselves?

In the case of Osun State, even with or without the ADC Najeem Salaam’s 17,080 votes, Governor Adeleke would have still carried the day convincingly.

But the question that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, (ADC), and Peter Obi of the Nigerian Democratic Congress, (NDC), must continue to answer truthfully is if they would not have done better together in 2027?

I recall an opinion I wrote here when Obi, Atiku and Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso were still all in ADC. I had pleaded so passionately with Atiku then to willingly step down for the younger Obi/Kwankwaso Ticket and to assume the role of their political Leader or Father. As at that time, it had not become official knowledge that Peter Obi and Kwankwaso would eventually agree to fly a joint ticket. It is a great political development that today, they are flying this ticket but it is rather unfortunate that Atiku will still be contesting against them and against the incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

How this will turn out to be in the final result remains to be seen.

For a country as complex as Nigeria, it is not always that things of this nature can be reduced into one straight analysis. So much options may play out at last.

Take the Osun State’s or more appropriately, the Governor Adeleke’s latest experience for example.

You will recall that when, at the heat of the campaigns, Accord Party, led by Prof. Christopher Imumolen, announced its withdrawal of support for Adeleke and endorsed Oyebamiji, some said the Governor’s camp has been served the dosage Labour Party was fed with in 2023 Elections.

But as we see in Osun, that development failed to prevent Adeleke from retaining power.

Instead of nailing Adeleke on the cross finally, that development, vis-a-vis the result confirm my belief today that Nigerian voters have matured to the extent of chosing individuals to lead them and not party structures. They gave Adeleke power, not party structures that are being manipulated by political leaders.

Ahead of the election, some analysts had pointed to the APC’s control of local government structures and the influence of competing political forces as potential obstacles to the governor’s re-election.

We must all learn to take these so-called political structures less seriously. Time is moving fast and steadily.

Some of his critics said so mockingly and so condescendingly that Adeleke is a ‘dancing governor.’

Yes, that is the truth. The governor has smooth dancing steps. But he is no doubt much more than just an ordinary dancer. It seems his bold dancing steps have indeed become footpaths leading his people to better routes.

This explains why one of his admirers have this to say of him, shortly after the official announcement of his re-election: “His political style also remained a distinctive feature of his campaign. His public appearances, accessibility and highly visible personality had helped him maintain a strong connection with sections of the electorate.”

Now, who says it is not better to follow a lively dancer to a future that promises of laughter, joy and fulfilment than to continue to follow shadowy leaders we know little or nothing about?

• Samuel Hezekiah Egburonu Esq, is a lawyer, veteran journalist, literary scholar and current affairs analyst