…Rewane, Oyedele forecast stronger economy in 2026

By Henry Uche

The Managing Director of Parthian Pensions, Mr. Olufemi Odukoya, has described the explosive growth of the pension industry as a testament to the power of domestic capital formation, capable of boosting the real sector and the economy at large. He expressed this confidence as he traced the sector’s transformation from a deficit of N2.4 trillion in unpaid liabilities in 2004 to over N26 trillion in assets today.

He made this known in Lagos during the 2025 Parthian Economic Discourse (PED25), organized by Parthian Partners – a platform for businesses, investors, and policymakers offering strategic guidance and insights into Nigeria’s evolving macroeconomic landscape.

The Parthian Pensions boss noted: “Pensions are fully tax-exempt, and that remains one of the key advantages of our system.” He projected further growth, stating that assets are expected to hit N30 trillion next year (2026), adding N4 trillion in domestic capital.

Odukoya emphasized that these funds are not idle but actively powering the real economy. “Across energy, power, infrastructure, and agriculture, investments are being funded through locally mobilized capital, and that is the real impact of the pension industry.”

He also commended recent regulatory bold steps, such as increasing infrastructure fund limits to 25% for Fund I and introducing new asset classes like agricultural investment funds, saying, “All of these signal one thing: the government clearly recognizes the role pension assets play in driving economic growth.”

Speaking during the cross-pollination and fertilization of ideas for a stronger economy, Nigerian economist and managing director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, projected market capitalization to hit N262 trillion in 2026.

With the theme, “Reforms to Results: Powering Economic Growth for Shared Prosperity,” other speakers emphasized that 2026 will be a pivotal year for institutional deepening, market expansion, and domestic capital mobilization.

Rewane, Non-Executive Director at Parthian Partners, headlined the event with a bullish forecast for the capital market, saying: “Market cap to climb to N262 trillion in 2026 due to new listings, earnings, and efficiency.” He signaled a robust recovery driven by corporate performance rather than just sentiment. However, he cautioned that the success of these projections relies heavily on how institutions manage the economic environment.

“Reform does not just mean policy change but includes institutional reforms and market response,” the social entrepreneur said. He stressed the importance of discernment in the coming year, noting, “Outlook is not as important as the judgment. What you do with information is the most important thing.”

He also highlighted the critical nature of government spending transparency, noting, “The quantum of government expenditure is not as important as its dominance. What you see is what you get; what you don’t see is what gets you.”

On his part, the chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, assured that the new tax regime would be a relief to about 98% of Nigerians.

Oyedele clarified the impact of the ongoing tax overhaul on the average Nigerian and assured stakeholders that the reforms were designed to be progressive and pro-people. “98% of Nigerians will see an improvement in disposable income because taxes will reduce,” he declared, explaining that the new framework shifts the burden away from the vulnerable. “The tax reform is to make the tax system in Nigeria progressive.”

Addressing concerns about the Capital Gains Tax (CGT), the tax expert offered a strategic perspective on the proposed adjustments. “The 30% CGT in 2026 is better than the 10% currently. This is because the 10% has risk attached to it, while the 30% discounts the risk,” he argued, suggesting that the new regime offers greater certainty for investors and incentivizes them to stay longer.

Ireti Samuel-Ogbu, Chair of the Board at the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), called for a more structured approach to policy implementation and a renewed focus on human capital. She observed that while the intent of recent policies was sound, the execution required better timing.

“The reforms have been good, but they could have been better sequenced to ensure supply, Naira stability, and gradual subsidy removal,” Samuel-Ogbu stated. She stressed that policies must deliver tangible benefits and positively impact the population in areas such as inflation control, education, transportation, and overall quality of life.

Beyond macro-sequencing, the finance expert raised the alarm regarding the widening skills gap in the country. “Education and digital skills gaps are huge. Over 18 million Nigerian children are out of school, and among those in school, 85% lack digital literacy,” she revealed.

She warned that even graduates often lack the capacity to function in a digital economy, urging that policy planning must consider population dynamics to consolidate economic gains. “Nigeria must expand beyond oil-dependent revenue, exploring non-oil sources of income to strengthen the economy,” she added.