Follow Us on Google
•Experts blame TCN, NISO for deep-rooted system lapses
•Calls grow for decentralised power solutions
•N676bn spent on diesel in 6 months
By Adewale Sanyaolu
Businesses and households are lamenting the persistent and hurtful blackouts arising from electricity grid failures.
Power experts are also outraged, especially as the challenge has national security implications, aside from financial losses to homes and commercial outfits.
Unfortunately, hopes of a possible end to the trauma are not on the horizon, as new revelations point to systemic failures and institutional lapses within the power sector that seem to defy solutions.
Electricity enthusiasts insist that agencies meant to safeguard the grid, Transmission Company of Nigeria(TCN) and Nigeria Independent System Operator(NISO), have become part of the problem, while years of secrecy surrounding the Siemens Presidential Power Initiative, weak reforms and stalled decentralisation continue to undermine efforts to deliver stable power to homes and industries.
Other age-long constraints that have not received considerable attention include gas supply constraints, poor grid connection, liquidity shortfalls, low investment and the lack of political will on the part of state governments to translate policy into action, as captured in the 2023 Electricity Act, a law that allows states to generate, distribute and transmit power.
An analysis of system disturbances shows that Nigeria recorded two grid collapses in January 2026 within a three-day interval, January 23 and January 26.
In 2024 alone, the grid collapsed almost monthly, recording 12 incidents. However, there was a modest reduction in 2025, with four major incidents recorded on February 12, March 7, September 10 and December 29.
Reacting, Professor of Electricity and Energy Law at the University of Lagos, Yemi Oke, said it was troubling that the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and the Nigeria Independent System Operator (NISO) have become institutional problems.
“No doubt, there are manpower issues across the value chain. As suggested by us, TCN has been balkanised into two entities; TCN and NISO. TCN deals with transmission infrastructure, while NISO handles load shedding and other technical components of system operations.
“We had NISO about two years ago and, by now, we believe things should be okay. Rather, the reverse is the case. The government only deployed old hands from the bureaucracy to manage NISO. I expected NISO to do much more than they are doing now. At the level of NISO, they are still not getting things right,” he said.
On the Siemens deal, Oke said he was not optimistic about any miracle performance.
“I have said it before and will continue to say it again: Siemens has been in Nigeria for almost 10 years and, up till now, nothing has changed. The same way I spoke about Manitoba when they had a transmission management contract with Nigeria. At the end of the day, Manitoba left, but nothing changed.
“I have studied the contract agreement between the Federal Government and Siemens, which they are still keeping under wraps because many Nigerians are not aware of its contents. After reading it, I wasn’t convinced Siemens was going to perform any miracle or do anything different.
“If Siemens were that miraculous, by now we should have next to zero system collapses because they should have worked extensively on grid infrastructure,” he added.
Oke further noted that one of the technical reasons for system collapse is load rejection by distribution companies (DisCos), attributing this to insolvency.
“They can take me to court, but I am bold to say that 90 per cent of the DisCos in Nigeria today are insolvent. Load rejection happens because of this insolvency. Some DisCos take insignificant amounts of power just to supply prime areas such as Banana Island and Ikoyi, where customers can afford to pay premium tariffs. Once they have supplied industrial customers and high-end consumers, they don’t care about supplying rural areas,” he said.
He added that generation companies (GenCos) are also struggling due to insolvency, as they cannot pay for gas, thereby contributing to frequent grid collapses.
Corroborating Oke’s position, former Special Adviser to the Minister of Power and Group Managing Director/CEO of Plantrix Energy Group, Mr. Kingsley Odoh, said both TCN and NISO must get their acts together to ensure grid collapse becomes a thing of the past.
Though he acknowledged that the transmission infrastructure is old, he stressed the need for phased rehabilitation.
“There is also the issue of obsolete relay systems at transmission stations, which must be replaced to forestall frequent occurrences. It is worrisome that, as a gas-producing nation, we are still battling gas constraints. The government must move beyond rhetoric and ensure that 20 per cent of locally produced gas is dedicated to the power sector,” he said.
Odoh noted that Nigeria has failed to fully implement SCADA systems capable of anticipating system collapse and recalibrating grid stability.
He also lamented that, despite the 2023 Electricity Act empowering states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity, none of the about seven states that completed paperwork has fully operationalised the process.
“We must move away from over-reliance on the national grid. Why can’t states enable these structures by signing agreements with private sector operators?” he asked.
Also speaking, power system expert and Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Tripod Industrial Services Limited, Mr. Ademola Raheem, regretted that countries like Togo and Benin Republic, to which Nigeria supplies electricity, are not experiencing outages because they are insulated through dedicated super-high-voltage transmission lines outside Nigeria’s grid.
He lamented that the Siemens deal, into which Nigeria has committed billions of naira, has failed to deliver expected relief, largely due to secrecy.
“Siemens only had a contract to upgrade some high-rating transformers and install SCADA systems to monitor secondary transmission lines, so the impact on grid stability may not be significant,” he said.
Raheem explained that grid collapse is largely caused by over-frequency arising from loss of load when transformers or circuit breakers trip due to faults or overload, leading generators to overspeed and shut down.
He added that vandalism of transmission lines also contributes to system collapse, resulting in equipment damage that costs consumers millions of naira to repair or replace.
“That is why many industrial consumers prefer to install independent power plants or expensive UPS systems,” he said.
Due to unreliable data and government insincerity, he said it is difficult to estimate economic losses accurately, though they likely run into hundreds of billions of naira annually.
Raheem insisted that no country can develop industrially without stable power supply, adding that unreliable electricity discourages foreign investment.
Offering solutions, he advocated decentralisation of the grid, citing Geometric Power, Aba, as a viable model, while urging the government to subsidise alternative energy solutions such as solar PV manufacturing.
Energy policy analyst and partner at Bloomfield Law Practice, Mr. Ayodele Oni, also accused Siemens of slow delivery since the agreement was signed in 2019.
While acknowledging that the initiative may help in the long run, he said its benefits would be gradual and dependent on full implementation and parallel reforms.
He disclosed that manufacturers spent over N676 billion on energy in the first half of 2025, largely on diesel, adding that outages reduce GDP growth, deter investment and increase reliance on polluting generators.
Oni noted that GenCos reportedly lost over N66 billion in late 2025 due to load rejections, while manufacturers lost 18,935 jobs in H1 2025 because of high energy costs.
He maintained that Nigeria’s grid remains unstable due to over-reliance on an aging, centralised transmission network prone to overload, poor maintenance and weak automation.
“The solution is systemic — move from a fragile centralised grid to true decentralisation under the Electricity Act 2023, alongside coordinated reforms. These measures offer the best path to durable grid stability,” he said.
